Jonathan Bernstein: “The folks over at FiveThirtyEight ran their first 2024 Republican presidential nomination mock draft last week. They were careful to label it ‘way too early.’ In a normal presidential-election cycle, I would have been quick to run an item about how that wasn’t really true. Indeed, in a normal presidential-election cycle, I would have already written four months ago that the 2024 contest was already underway.”

“This is not a normal nomination cycle. Or, to be more accurate: These are not normal nomination cycles.”

“We really have no idea whether either the Republican or the Democratic nominations will be competitive.”

“With less than two months to go, nearly half of voters have not chosen a candidate in the upcoming special election in Texas’ 6th District,” according to new polling obtained by Inside Elections.

“The March 9-12 survey by Victoria Research found Republican Susan Wright, the widow of the late GOP Rep. Ron Wright, leading the field with 21%, followed by Sanchez with 17%. Republican state Rep. Jake Ellzey garnered 8%; Democrats Lydia Bean (a 2020 state House nominee and former professor at Baylor) and Shawn Lassiter (a nonprofit leader and former teacher) took 5% and 3%, respectively.”

“Texas conducts special elections via jungle primary, meaning that all candidates — there are 23 of them in this race — will appear together on the ballot. If no candidate wins a majority, then the top two best-performing candidates, regardless of party, advance to a runoff.”