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The Wall Street Journal expands on the problems Republicans are having recruiting U.S. Senate candidates:

Among the challenges facing the GOP recruiters is that the environment in Washington appears toxic, and Congress, which has struggled for years to pass major legislation, is viewed by some as an unproductive and unfulfilling job, said GOP strategist Chuck Warren, who has consulted for Sens. Orrin Hatch of Utah and Lindsey Graham of South Carolina.

“You go back there and all it is, is a food fight,” Mr. Warren said. “Nothing is getting done. Why would you want to sacrifice your money, your family’s time, to go back to a food fight?”

Recruiting problems are one indicator that Democrats could have the upper hand heading into the 2018 midterms.

But an even better one is looking at the 10 Democratic senators facing reelection next year in states that President Trump carried in 2016, often by commanding margins.

Ron Brownstein notes that despite some early suggestions they might try to court Trump voters by working with the president, they instead remain firmly opposed to his agenda:

Instead of being tugged toward Trump, both Casey and McCaskill have been propelled toward resolute resistance of his agenda. In that, they are the rule, not the exception, for the Trump 10. The group also includes Ohio’s Sherrod Brown, Florida’s Bill Nelson, Wisconsin’s Tammy Baldwin, and Michigan’s Debbie Stabenow in swing states that tilted toward Trump; and Montana’s Jon Tester, North Dakota’s Heidi Heitkamp, Indiana’s Joe Donnelly, and West Virginia’s Joe Manchin in more conservative states where the president romped.

Their opposition took root early in Trump’s tenure. None of the 10 backed confirmation for Betsy DeVos as education secretary. Just Manchin, Heitkamp, and Donnelly voted to confirm Supreme Court Justice Neil Gorsuch. And, more recently, all 10 have signaled opposition to the evolving Senate Republican legislation to repeal the Affordable Care Act.

In fact, each of these 10 senators is opposing Trump because they believe his agenda is actually hurting those who voted for him.

As Brownstein notes, theses senators are betting that Democratic pollster Geoff Garin is right when he predicts that “even in places where Trump won … he will end up being a bigger problem next year for the Republican than the Democratic candidates.”

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The president’s party has lost House seats in midterm elections in 16 of the last 18 midterm elections.

Political scientist Alan Abramowitz finds that two predictors explain most of the seat swing in midterm elections: which party controls the White House and the number of seats held by each party prior to the election.

Abramoff notes that just having a Republican in the White House costs the GOP an average of close to 14 seats and for each one point advantage Democrats have on the Gallup poll generic ballot in early September of the midterm year, Republicans can expect to lose about 1.8 additional seats in the House.

As the chart below shows, the relationship is quite strong:

Looking ahead to the 2018 midterm elections, this means that Democrats will need a lead of at least five points on the generic ballot in early September of 2018 in order to win the 24 seats that they need to take control of the House.

Based on early polling averages, that number appears well within reach.