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Nate Silver, Then and Now

January 24, 2017 at 9:30 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“The ‘fundamentals’ models, in fact, have had almost no predictive power at all. Over this 16-year period, there has been no relationship between the vote they forecast for the incumbent candidate and how well he actually did.”

— Nate Silver, writing in FiveThirtyEight on March 26, 2012.

“Reporting largely ignored the importance of economic conditions and other ‘fundamentals’ that implied a potentially close race.”

— Silver, writing in FiveThirtEight on January 23, 2017, criticizing media coverage of the 2016 campaign.

Sales of ‘1984’ Surge

January 24, 2017 at 9:02 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“George Orwell’s dystopian novel 1984 is surging in popularity in the days since President Trump’s inauguration,” The Hill reports.

“The iconic book, published nearly 70 years ago, is the sixth best-selling book on Amazon as of Tuesday morning.”

Trump Thrives In Chaos

January 24, 2017 at 8:51 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

This piece is only available to Political Wire members.

On Day 5 of Donald Trump’s presidency we’re greeted with stories of power struggles in the White House, rifts between donors and staff, and the creation of a “shadow Cabinet” to watch over the real Cabinet secretaries.

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Price Proposed Another Bill to Benefit His Investments

January 24, 2017 at 8:50 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Three months after investing in four companies with manufacturing plants in Puerto Rico, President Donald Trump’s pick for Health and Human Services secretary introduced legislation that would directly benefit those companies,” the Wall Street Journal reports.

“The proposed House legislation by Rep. Tom Price (R-GA) — which would have made permanent an expiring tax deduction for Puerto Rican facilities — didn’t pass… The bill nevertheless marks another instance in which Mr. Price was involved in legislation that could have benefited his stock holdings.”

Senate Democrats Unveil Infrastructure Plan

January 24, 2017 at 8:36 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“A group of senior Senate Democrats on Tuesday plan to unveil their own $1 trillion plan to revamp the nation’s airports, bridges, roads and seaports, urging President Trump to back their proposal, which they say would create 15 million jobs over 10 years,” the Washington Post reports.

“Eager to drive a wedge between the new president and congressional Republicans, Democrats consider talk of infrastructure projects as a way to piggyback on Trump’s frequent vows to repair the nation’s crumbling roads and bridges and persuade him to adopt ideas that would put him at odds with GOP leaders, who have done little to embrace what would amount to a major new government spending program.”

Democrats Using the Tea Party Playbook

January 24, 2017 at 8:30 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

New York Times: “Party leaders, eyeing the huge protests last weekend and growing worries over the promised repeal of the Affordable Care Act, are hoping to recreate the mass movement that sprang up in 2009 and swept Republicans to power in the House and in governor’s races across the country — a Tea Party equivalent from the left.”

“And they are turning to the same playbook that guided their conservative counterparts in the aftermath of Mr. Obama’s election: creating or expanding a number of groups outside the formal architecture of the party, focusing on often-overlooked state legislative and redistricting campaigns, and bringing together frightened fund-raisers to underwrite it all.”

How Trump Is Reshaping Both Parties

January 24, 2017 at 8:27 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Charlie Cook: “My bet is that Republican elected officials are going to be extremely reluctant to publicly break with Trump, despite his anemic poll numbers. GOP officeholders and party officials will continue to fear the wrath of the Trump backers at the first sign of criticism. With so few Republicans likely to face strong Democratic challenges in 2018, either because few GOP seats are up or because few House incumbents are in competitive districts, primary challenges are their biggest fear, so they are unlikely to do anything to anger the Trump faithful.”

“On the Democratic side, can anyone win the nomination running from the middle? At one time, Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand of New York occupied that moderately liberal place, but more recently she’s moved sharply to the left. It would seem that there is no traction anywhere else in the Democratic Party. Gillibrand advertised her leftward move by casting the lone vote against retired Marine General James Mattis’s nomination to be secretary of Defense. Sen. Cory Booker’s testimony against Sen. Jeff Sessions’s nomination to be attorney general gave him an opportunity to strike a similar pose. Until now, Booker seemed to be steering clear of doing things that might pigeonhole him as a left-leaning bomb thrower.”

Expect More Social Gatherings in the White House

January 24, 2017 at 7:51 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Playbook: “Here’s a rule of thumb in D.C.: The more principals in the room, the less gets done. When a president of either party calls a meeting of all congressional leaders, it’s a pretty sure bet that little substantive will happen. But in this case, that’s OK. President Trump’s decision to hold a happy hour, of sorts, with congressional leadership was a first step in building a relationship between a president new to D.C. and people who matter on the Hill. Expect Trump to do a lot of this. Barack Obama did famously little of it.”

Trump Creates a Shadow Cabinet

January 24, 2017 at 7:48 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“The White House is installing senior aides atop major federal agencies to shadow the administration’s Cabinet secretaries, creating a direct line with loyalists who can monitor and shape White House goals across the federal bureaucracy,” Politico reports.

“The aides chosen by the White House—given the title of senior adviser in each agency—have already been responsible for hiring at some departments and crafting the blueprint of Trump policy before the Cabinet members win Senate confirmation to take office. They have worked with congressional aides, lobbyists and others seeking influence in the new administration.”

“The arrangement, described by four people involved in the transition planning, appears designed to help the White House maintain control over its priorities despite pledging to give Cabinet secretaries unusual autonomy. Having senior advisers reporting to both the agency chiefs and the White House could spur early tensions and create conflicts with that pledge of autonomy.”

Press Secretary Drama Continues at White House

January 24, 2017 at 7:45 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Mike Allen: “This West Wing is a tough neighborhood. Even after Sean Spicer’s successful get-back-on-the-horse presser yesterday, we were told that a top White House official was discussing his possible replacement. On Day 4! With 1,457 to go in this term.”

“The team was feeling better after the reboot briefing by Spicer… But inside, the finger-pointing and blame-casting continued. Unfortunately for Spicer, Trump is obsessed with his press secretary’s performance art. We hear that Trump hasn’t been impressed with how Spicer dresses, once asking an aide: ‘Doesn’t the guy own a dark suit.'”

“Spicer looked a lot sharper yesterday than he did on Saturday — in a dark, bankerly suit.”

Trump Moves to Shape Voice of America

January 24, 2017 at 7:30 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

President Trump “dispatched two aides to scope out the studios of Voice of America, heightening concerns among some longtime staffers that Trump may quickly put his stamp on the broadcasting arm that has long pushed U.S. democratic ideals across the world,” Politico reports.

Big Trump Donors May Abandon New Political Arm

January 24, 2017 at 7:24 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Politico: “Now, just days after Trump’s inauguration, the donors expected to provide much of the funding for the group — the hedge fund billionaire Robert Mercer and his daughter, Rebekah Mercer — are considering abandoning the effort and launching an independent effort of their own.”

“It is unclear precisely why Rebekah Mercer became unhappy with the plans for the organization, though tensions surfaced between her and Brad Parscale, who served as the Trump campaign’s digital director, during a December meeting in Trump Tower.”

Trump Lies on His Environmental Record

January 24, 2017 at 7:06 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

The Washington Post gives President Trump “four Pinocchios” for his claim in a meeting with business leaders that he had “received awards on the environment.”

“Media outlets and environmental groups have tried to find evidence of this claim since 2011 but have come up short. We could not readily find references to Trump’s environmental awards in news coverage over the past 10 years. We checked with the Natural Resources Defense Council Action Fund, the Environmental Defense Fund and the Sierra Club, and none had any record of Trump’s environmental awards. In fact, environmentalists have criticized many of Trump’s projects.”

Why a Membership Model? – Part II

January 24, 2017 at 6:29 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

(Re-posted from the weekend.)

I’ve previously explained the logic behind moving Political Wire to a reader-supported business model. Digital advertising is broken and it’s ruining the online experience.

An anecdote by Walter Mossberg about launching the tech site Recode makes this even clearer:

About a week after our launch, I was seated at a dinner next to a major advertising executive. He complimented me on our new site’s quality and on that of a predecessor site we had created and run, AllThingsD.com. I asked him if that meant he’d be placing ads on our fledgling site. He said yes, he’d do that for a little while. And then, after the cookies he placed on Recode helped him to track our desirable audience around the web, his agency would begin removing the ads and placing them on cheaper sites our readers also happened to visit. In other words, our quality journalism was, to him, nothing more than a lead generator for target-rich readers, and would ultimately benefit sites that might care less about quality.

This user tracking is undermining quality sites. Advertisers no longer care about quality news — or even real news. They just want to follow their targeted readers around the web and put their ads in front of in the cheapest way possible. With virtually unlimited ad inventory, it’s a race to the bottom.

A membership model is a much simpler — and more honest — way to support a site that readers actually want.

Join today for just $5 a month or $50 for the year.

The First Days Inside Trump’s White House

January 23, 2017 at 10:02 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

The Washington Post has a must-read on the power struggles already happening inside the Trump White House.

“The broader power struggles within the Trump operation have touched everything from the new administration’s communications shop to the expansive role of the president’s son-in-law to the formation of Trump’s political organization. At the center, as always, is Trump himself, whose ascent to the White House seems to have only heightened his acute sensitivity to criticism.”

Trump Repeats False Claim About the Popular Vote

January 23, 2017 at 9:49 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“President Trump used his first official meeting with congressional leaders on Monday to gripe about his loss of the popular vote, falsely telling the lawmakers that he would have won a majority if millions of illegal immigrants had not voted against him,” the New York Times reports.

“The claim, which he has made before on Twitter, has been judged to be untrue by numerous fact-checkers. But the new president’s willingness to bring it up at Monday’s White House reception in the State Dining Room is an indication that he remains focused on his election even assuming power.”

Pompeo Confirmed as CIA Chief

January 23, 2017 at 9:00 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“The Senate confirmed Rep. Mike Pompeo to be director of the CIA, following a spirited debate in which Democrats expressed concern about his stances on domestic surveillance, data collection and torture,” Politico reports.

“The vote was 66 to 32, with a majority of Democrats voting no — as well as Republican Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky.”

Bonus Quote of the Day

January 23, 2017 at 5:55 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“I think sometimes we can disagree with the facts.”

— White House press secretary Sean Spicer, quoted by The Guardian.

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About Political Wire

goddard-bw-snapshotTaegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.

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