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How Big Data Broke Politics

March 14, 2017 at 6:35 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

NBC News: “Polarization is no longer just polluting the system — it’s paralyzing it. The deepening divide between the right and the left has largely hollowed out the center of American politics, from the politicians who once occupied the large ‘middle’ to the voters who once gravitated to them.”

“Here’s our theory: The reason our lawmakers aren’t responding to the center of the electorate is because they’ve concluded (with ample electoral evidence) that they don’t need centrist or swing voters to win.”

“Why? Big Data — a combination of massive technological power and endlessly detailed voter information — now allows campaigns to pinpoint their most likely supporters. These tools make mobilizing supporters easier, faster and far less expensive than persuading their neighbors.”

Trump’s Approval Rate Tanks

March 14, 2017 at 6:34 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

The latest Gallup tracking poll finds President Trump’s approval rate suddenly tanking to  39% to 55%.

Even Deeper Cuts Planned for EPA

March 14, 2017 at 6:32 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“The Environmental Protection Agency isn’t fighting the White House’s initial budget that proposes to cut the agency’s budget by about $2 billion — or roughly 25% — and reduce the agency’s workforce by roughly 3,000 employees,” according to Axios.

“Climate change programs would be gutted under the proposal and the workforce attached to these programs would be cleared out of the agency — in line with the aggressive vision of EPA transition head Myron Ebell.”


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Influential Trump Friend Advising Ditching Ryan Plan

March 14, 2017 at 6:09 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Vox: “A key Trump friend and ally is urging the president to dump Paul Ryan’s Affordable Health Care Act and embrace something that sounds sort of like a lightweight version of a single-payer health care system. Christopher Ruddy, CEO of the conservative Newsmax brand, isn’t normally considered a major thought leader on policy issues, but he is a longtime friend of Trump’s, and counts as one of a relatively small number of conservative players who have closer ties to Trump than to congressional Republican leaders.”

“And he is warning loud and clear that Trump ‘could inherit the bad political baggage of both Obamacare and the House Republicans’ if he insists on going along with Ryan’s version of repealing and replacing Obamacare.”

Schumer Warns GOP They Risk Government Shutdown

March 14, 2017 at 6:03 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) warned Republicans that they’d risk a government shutdown if they try to attach money for President Trump’s U.S.-Mexico border wall to a must-pass bill to keep the government, Politico reports.

The same applies to any attempt to defund Planned Parenthood, Schumer said.

Said Schumer: “If they put these poison pill amendments in and try to shove them down the American people’s throat of course they might be responsible for shutting government down.”

Mayor Charges Media for Talking to City Staff

March 14, 2017 at 3:00 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Langley, WA Mayor Tim Callison “began a new practice of billing the media for speaking with a city employee,” the Whidbey News-Times reports.

Callison emailed a local newspaper a $64 invoice for time city attorney Mike Kenyon spent responding to a reporter’s question. Callison explained the “city attorney’s time is not free” and that the newspaper should reimburse city hall.

Prosecutor Purge Created a New Batch of Candidates

March 14, 2017 at 2:00 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Politico: “McQuade was among more than 40 U.S. attorneys appointed by former President Barack Obama and let go by the president last week, an act that suddenly flooded the political marketplace with experienced federal prosecutors of the sort both parties love to tap to run for high office.”

“It’s a move that could come back to haunt the GOP. New York is buzzing with rumors about what’s next for Preet Bharara, the highest-profile of the former U.S. attorneys, who has been tipped for elected office in the past. Kenneth Polite, the former U.S. attorney for the Eastern District of Louisiana, resigned Friday and immediately reinvigorated talk of a run for state attorney general, mayor of New Orleans, or Orleans Parish sheriff.”

No, Microwave Ovens Can’t Spy on You

March 14, 2017 at 1:00 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Wired: “It’s true that lots of things can be turned into listening devices. It’s also true that attackers can compromise internet-connected gadgets. And yes, the WikiLeaks data outlines various (alleged) CIA methods of compromising cellphones and Samsung TVs to surveil targets.”

“Kellyanne Conway isn’t even the only one who associates microwave ovens with government spying. ‘Is the CIA listening to me through my microwave oven, and through my TV, and through my cell phone,’ asked late-night host Stephen Colbert of former CIA and NSA head Michael Hayden last week. (The answer was ‘no,’ at least if you’re an American citizen.)”

“Still, it must be said: Microwave ovens are not an effective spy tool.”

World Moves On Without U.S. On Trade

March 14, 2017 at 12:00 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Politico: “Here’s what happens when the U.S. pulls out of a major trade deal [like TPP]: New Zealand seizes the opportunity to send more of its milk and cheese to China. Japanese consumers pay less for Australian beef than for American meat. Canadians talk about sending everything from farm products to banking services to Japan and India.”

“Other countries are ready to rush into the vacuum the U.S. is leaving behind, negotiating tariff-cutting deals that could eliminate any competitive advantage for U.S. goods.”

Democrats Paralyzed Over Gorsuch

March 14, 2017 at 11:00 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Democrats can’t seem to land a punch on Neil Gorsuch — and it’s not even clear they want to,” Politico reports.

“President Trump’s Supreme Court nominee has breezed through more than 70 meetings with senators. Opponents who’ve scoured his record have found little to latch onto. And some Democrats are privately beginning to believe that Gorsuch — barring a blunder at his Senate confirmation hearings next week — will clinch the 60 votes he needs to be approved without a filibuster.”

Cuts to State Department Will Be Scaled Back

March 14, 2017 at 10:00 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“The State Department budget won’t be getting cut as deeply as President Donald Trump initially suggested after Secretary of State Rex Tillerson successfully pushed back with the White House,” Politico reports.

“The budget blueprint expected later this week will still trim funding for both the State Department and the U.S. Agency for International Development next year, but by less than the 37 percent initially floated in preliminary documents sent out by the White House in late February. The budget revision is expected to include ‘staged cuts’ spread out over several years, instead of the immediate hit, according to a senior administration official, who said that the White House is giving Tillerson time ‘to do a deeper analysis on foreign aid.’”

The GOP Divide Exposed

March 14, 2017 at 8:34 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

First Read: “So there you have it: A Trump administration that has promised health-insurance coverage vs. House Republicans who believe freedom means that you shouldn’t be forced to have it. Populism vs. Tea Party. Trumpism vs. Ryanism.”

Meanwhile, NBC News shows how the House bill breaks many promised made by President Trump and his top advisers.

Quote of the Day

March 14, 2017 at 8:21 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“The CBO estimate that millions of Americans could lose their health insurance coverage if the House bill were to become law is cause for alarm. It should prompt the House to slow down and reconsider certain provisions of the bill.”

— Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME), quoted by the Bangor Daily News.

What Will Republicans Do Now?

March 14, 2017 at 8:07 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

David Nather: “The next few days will tell us whether Republican leaders prepared adequately for the disastrous Congressional Budget Office estimates of the House Obamacare replacement bill. It’s one thing to say, ‘we’re not going to compete with a law that forces everyone to buy coverage.’ It’s another thing to fight headlines about 24 million Americans losing coverage.”

“It’s summed up in this tweet from former Senate Republican aide Rodney Whitlock: “Critical, soul searching moment for GOP. Ignore #CBOscore and plow ahead or admit that some ideas might just be problematic.”

Rick Klein and Shushannah Walshe: “With a semi-snow day in Washington to let the numbers sink in and the fallout spread, debate over whether the CBO offers good or bad news only hints at the disconnect in GOP circles. There are tensions everywhere – between what Ryan has long planned, what tea partiers and outside conservative groups have yearned for, and, critically, what President Trump promised.”

Reid Urged Warren to Run for President in 2020

March 14, 2017 at 7:58 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

New York Times: “Reid brought Elizabeth Warren onto the Democratic Senate leadership team in 2014, and she was one of the people he most trusted to keep the Senate caucus on its bearings through the difficult weather ahead. Shortly before Thanksgiving, he summoned Warren to the minority leader’s office. When she arrived, the room was littered with art supplies; on an easel was a half-finished portrait of Reid that would be unveiled at his retirement party the following month. Its subject was preoccupied with the future of the party to which he had dedicated decades of his life. Reid told Warren she needed to think seriously about running for president in 2020.”

Trump Seeks Huge Cuts at United Nations

March 14, 2017 at 7:56 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Foreign Policy: “State Department staffers have been instructed to seek cuts in excess of 50% in U.S. funding for U.N. programs, signaling an unprecedented retreat by President Trump’s administration from international operations that keep the peace, provide vaccines for children, monitor rogue nuclear weapons programs, and promote peace talks from Syria to Yemen, according to three sources.”

“It remains unclear whether the full extent of the steeper U.N. cuts will be reflected in the 2018 budget.”

Issa’s Own Poll Shows Trump Is a Burden

March 14, 2017 at 7:52 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Los Angeles Times: “A month after Rep. Darrell Issa (R-CA) won reelection in the closest congressional race in the country, the congressman got a warning that his next contest could be even tougher. An internal poll by Issa’s campaign showed a nearly 10-percentage point drop in his favorability ratings between mid-October and early December — and that one likely reason the lawmaker’s image took a hit was because of his support for President Trump.”

Join Today!

March 13, 2017 at 11:44 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

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About Political Wire

goddard-bw-snapshotTaegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.

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