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Why Abercrombie Bucked Inouye

December 28, 2012 at 4:00 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Politico: “Hawaii Gov. Neil Abercrombie’s decision to buck the dying wish of legendary Sen. Daniel Inouye and install his own No. 2, Lt. Gov. Brian Schatz, as the state’s soon-to-be senior senator may be less surprising than it seems.”

“Abercrombie and Inouye were not allies. In fact, their two-decade relationship in Congress was marked by rifts — most notably over Inouye’s encouragement of a primary challenger to Abercrombie in the 2010 governor’s race. Abercrombie and Schatz were running mates in that same election.”

Electoral Clout of Blacks Is Driven by Turnout

December 27, 2012 at 11:06 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A new Pew Research survey finds that blacks voted at a higher rate this year than other minority groups and for the first time in history may also have voted at a higher rate than whites.

“Unlike other minority groups whose increasing electoral muscle has been driven mainly by population growth, blacks’ rising share of the vote in the past four presidential elections has been the result of rising turnout rates.”

Obama Calls Lawmakers to the White House

December 27, 2012 at 10:29 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Congressional leaders will head to the White House on Friday to meet with President Obama in what Politico says “may be the final chance to restart negotiations just a few days before the nation plunges over the fiscal cliff.”

New York Times: “Lawmakers and aides from both parties cautioned that the burst of activity could be more about making sure the other side gets the blame than any real search for a resolution before the Jan. 1 deadline.”

Wall Street Journal: “It is still possible the two sides can reach a deal, especially with the leaders meeting Friday. Any resolution would be a scaled-back version of the package Mr. Obama and congressional leaders had anticipated passing after the November election… The 11th-hour strategy carries enormous risk because it leaves no margin for error in Congress’s balky legislative machinery.”


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Clinton Will Return to Work Next Week

December 27, 2012 at 10:13 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Secretary of State Hillary Clinton will return to the State Department next week after three weeks of recovery from a stomach virus and a related concussion, The Cable reports.

“Clinton’s ongoing recovery will still prevent her from flying abroad, but will allow plans to move forward for her to testify in open hearing on the Sept. 11 attack on Benghazi, testimony that she was unable to give — as per her doctor’s orders — on Dec. 20. Her return to a public schedule could also end the weeks of conspiracy theorizing and wild speculation about whether or not she was faking or misrepresenting her illness to avoid testifying.”

Fox News: Will Clinton testimony hold up John Kerry’s nomination?

EPA Chief to Step Down

December 27, 2012 at 10:05 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

The New York Times
reports that Lisa Jackson is stepping down as administrator of the
Environmental Protection Agency “after a four-year tenure that began
with high hopes of sweeping action to address climate change and other
environmental ills but ended with a series of rear-guard actions to
defend the agency against challenges from industry, Republicans in
Congress and, at times, the Obama White House.”

BuzzFeed reports Jackson departs in part to her opposition to the controversial Keystone pipeline.

Most Americans Back Stricter Gun Controls

December 27, 2012 at 9:05 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A new USA Today/Gallup poll finds a majority of Americans — 58% — support stricter gun laws in the aftermath of the Newtown school shooting, but most also oppose banning assault weapons.

Five Polling Lessons from 2012

December 27, 2012 at 8:56 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Harry Enten says there are five polling lessons we should take from the 2012 election season:

1. When likely and registered voter polls disagree in high turnout elections, you should usually go with the registered voter surveys.
2. Cellphones are generally needed for an accurate telephone poll.
3. Internet polling is the wave of the future.
4. Internal polls published publicly generally should not be trusted.
5. When state and national polls disagree, you should generally go with the state data.

Schwarzkopf is Dead at 78

December 27, 2012 at 8:51 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Retired Gen. Norman Schwarzkopf, “who topped an illustrious military career by commanding the U.S.-led international coalition that drove Saddam Hussein’s forces out of Kuwait in 1991 but kept a low public profile in controversies over the second Gulf War against Iraq, died,” the AP reports.

Boehner Calls House Back on Sunday Night

December 27, 2012 at 7:03 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

House Speaker John Boehner (R-OH) said the House of Representatives will reconvene on Sunday evening, just less than 30 hours before the United States reaches the fiscal cliff, NBC News reports.

Lawmakers were told that the House would come to order at 6:30 p.m. ET on Sunday in hopes of averting the end-of-year combination of tax hikes and spending cuts that constitute the fiscal cliff.

Said Boehner: “We’ve done our job, it’s up to the Senate to act. We’ll see if they do anything.”

Markey Will Run in Special Election to Replace Kerry

December 27, 2012 at 6:58 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Rep. Edward Markey (D-MA), dean of the state’s Washington delegation, will run in 2013 for the U.S. Senate seat expected to open with the nomination of Sen. John Kerry (D-MA) to head the State Department, the Boston Globe reports.

Markey is the first prominent candidate to declare a run for Kerry’s seat, which will be filled through a special election early next summer, probably in June.

Bonus Quote of the Day

December 27, 2012 at 6:36 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“It looks like that’s where we’re headed.”

— Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV), quoted by CNBC, on the fiscal cliff.

More Blame Republicans for Fiscal Cliff Crisis

December 27, 2012 at 6:08 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A new Reuters/Ipsos poll finds Americans blame Republicans in Congress more than congressional Democrats or President Obama for the current “fiscal cliff” crisis, as the deadline approaches for action to avert big tax increases and spending cuts.

Key findings: 27% blamed Republicans in Congress, 16% blamed Obama and 6% pointed to Democrats in Congress. The largest percentage — 31% — blamed “all of the above.”

Barbara Walters Gets Personal with the Obamas

December 27, 2012 at 9:31 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

In an interview with President Obama and first lady Michelle Obama, Barbara Walters delved “right into what happens behind closed doors at the White House” and asked the Obamas how they “keep the fire going in their marriage,” making for a bit of an awkward exchange, according to the Hollywood Reporter.

Said the president, after a surprised chuckle: “We’ve been married now 20 years, and like every marriage, I think you have your ups and your downs. But if you work through the tough times, the respect and love that you feel deepens.”

Quote of the Day

December 27, 2012 at 9:22 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“If the president and Sen. Reid and John Boehner all said to me today… let’s put Simpson-Bowles on the floor, I guarantee you, given the urgency, we could cobble together something to solve this problem. But nobody’s willing to pull the trigger. Everybody wants to play the blame game. And this blame game’s about to put us over the edge.”

— Retiring Rep. Steve LaTourette (R-OH), in an interview on CNN.

One Last Shot at a Deal

December 27, 2012 at 9:14 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“With historic tax increases set to hit virtually every American in five days, President Obama and members of the Senate are headed back to Washington on Thursday to take one last shot at a deal to protect taxpayers and the gathering economic recovery,” the Washington Post reports.

“If anything, hope for success appeared to have dimmed over the Christmas holiday. The Republican-controlled House last week abdicated responsibility for resolving the crisis, leaving all eyes on the Senate. But senior aides in both parties said Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) and Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) have not met or even spoken since leaving town for the weekend.”

Mark Halperin: “At this point, even if Mitch McConnell wants to lead a last-second deal, it might not be possible. But his backing is certainly a necessary condition.”

Putin to Bar U.S. Adoptions of Russian Children

December 27, 2012 at 8:26 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Russian President Vladimir Putin said that he “would sign into law a ban on adoptions of Russian children by American citizens, retaliating against an American law that punishes Russians accused of violating human rights and dealing a potentially grave setback to bilateral relations,” the New York Times reports.

Trivia of the Day

December 26, 2012 at 9:20 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Hawaii Gov. Neil Abercrombie (D) is the co-author of a novel about terrorists who barge into the crowded House of Representatives and open fire, killing or wounding more than 100 lawmakers and staffers.

Fiscal Cliff Deal Increasingly Unlikely

December 26, 2012 at 8:24 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Politico reports that “nearly all the major players” in the fiscal cliff negotiations believe a deal is “virtually impossible before the New Year.”

“Unlike the bank bailout in 2008, the tax deal in 2010 and the debt ceiling in 2011, the Senate almost certainly won’t swoop in and help sidestep a potential economic calamity… With the country teetering on this fiscal cliff of deep spending cuts and sharp tax hikes, the philosophical differences, the shortened timetable and the political dynamics appear to be insurmountable hurdles for a bipartisan deal by New Year’s Day.”

The New York Times notes that with just days left “before the fiscal punch lands, both sides are exhibiting
little sense of urgency, and new public statements Wednesday appeared to
be designed more to ensure the other side is blamed rather than to
foster progress toward a deal.”

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About Political Wire

goddard-bw-snapshotTaegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.

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