Donald Trump and Kamala Harris have both agreed to do Univision town hall events.
The audience will feature undecided Hispanic voters who will ask questions of each candidate.
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2024 Election Environment Favorable to GOP
Gallup: “Nearly all Gallup measures that have shown some relationship to past presidential election outcomes or that speak to current perceptions of the two major parties favor the Republican Party over the Democratic Party.”
“Chief among these are Republican advantages in U.S. adults’ party identification and leanings, the belief that the GOP rather than the Democratic Party is better able to handle the most important problem facing the country, Americans’ dissatisfaction with the state of the nation, and negative evaluations of the economy with a Democratic administration in office.”
Special Counsel Can Present ‘Substantial’ New Evidence
“Special counsel Jack Smith this week will be allowed to file hundreds of pages of legal arguments and evidence gathered in the 2020 election subversion and January 6 US Capitol attack criminal case against former President Donald Trump,“ CNN reports.
“The filing is likely to be the largest chunk of the case against Trump that the public will be able to see before the 2024 presidential election, and could include what prosecutors know of the former president’s interactions with then-Vice President Mike Pence and other moments in late 2020 and early 2021.”
New York City Schools Chancellor Resigns
“Schools Chancellor David Banks, who assumed his role as head of the nation’s largest school system in New York City two years ago, is stepping down,” Politico reports.
“Banks, a longtime friend of Mayor Eric Adams who appointed him in December 2021, is resigning as he faces scrutiny over his ties to a federal investigation. The probe is centered around the role his consultant brother Terence played in a potential bribery scheme involving city contracts.”
Bonus Quote of the Day
“Maybe we’ll pay off the $35 trillion US debt in crypto. I’ll write on a little piece of paper ‘$35 trillion crypto we have no debt.’ That’s what I like.”
— Donald Trump, floating a plan to address the federal budget deficit.
Hundreds of Women Prosecuted After Roe v. Wade Fell
“At least 210 women faced criminal charges related to pregnancy, abortion, pregnancy loss, or birth in the year after the Supreme Court ended the federal right to abortion,” Rolling Stone reports.
“In most of the cases — 121 of the 210 — the information later used against the women was obtained or disclosed in a medical setting, researchers found.”
Johnson Again Turns to Democrats for Votes
“Speaker Mike Johnson is preparing to steer around a bloc of conservative opposition to a bipartisan short-term agreement to fund the government by relying — yet again — on Democrats to provide the bulk of votes to pass the legislation,” the New York Times reports.
“Late on Monday night, Republican leaders abruptly abandoned an effort to bring the funding legislation to the House floor using routine procedural measures, in an acknowledgment of the growing opposition to the measure from hard-right lawmakers.”
Haitian Group Files Citizen Criminal Charges Against Trump
“The leader of a nonprofit representing the Haitian community of Springfield, Ohio, filed criminal charges Tuesday against former President Donald Trump and his running mate, JD Vance, over the chaos and threats experienced by the city since Trump first spread false claims about legal immigrants there during a presidential debate,” the AP reports.
Courage in Nebraska
Rick Wilson: “I may have a fairly encyclopedic knowledge of American politics, but with 7000+ elected officials in the country, no one knows them all by name. Until a few days ago, I had never heard of state Senator Mike McDonnell of Nebraska.”
“There aren’t many elected Republican heroes left still inside the party. Yesterday, we saw one in action when McDonnell stood in front of the MAGA freight train of corrupt politics and their ongoing attempt to steal the 2024 election and said, ‘Stop.'”
The Trump Campaign Wants Everyone Talking About Race
Adam Serwer: “The theory is that by supercharging the salience of race—a reliable winner with huge swaths of the electorate—they can compensate for the unpopularity of the Trump campaign’s actual policy agenda: its plans to ban abortion, repeal protections for preexisting conditions in the Affordable Care Act, deregulate Big Business, and cut taxes on the wealthy while raising them on everyone else.”
“The campaign wants people—white people in particular—thinking about race, and hopes that these kinds of appeals will activate the necessary number of voters in the key swing states where the electorate is more conservative than the country as a whole. As Molly Ball reported in 2017, based on polling from the former Trump adviser Kellyanne Conway, another former Trump stalwart, Steve Bannon, developed a plan to galvanize white voters with race-baiting on immigration.”
“The belief that demagoguery on immigration is politically potent is why conservative media erupt with saturation coverage of the perennial migrant caravans every election season. The right sees as its most effective message the argument that immigrants, particularly nonwhite immigrants, are going to come to America and take or be given that which belongs to you.”
Harris to More Fully Detail Economic Plans
“Kamala Harris is set to ramp up her economic message this week, with a speech reframing her policy vision and a lengthy new document describing her approach in more detail,” the New York Times reports.
“Her focus on economic issues comes at a pivotal moment, as many voters remain skeptical of her ability to improve the economy, which has been a top issue in the presidential campaign.”
Giuliani Ordered to Pay Firm That Worked on Bankruptcy
“Rudy Giuliani has been told he must pay a bill of about $300,000 for a forensic accounting firm’s work to trace his money in his now-aborted bankruptcy proceeding,” CNN reports.
Ex-Trump Aide Made Teens Uncomfortable in Chats
Two women told Wired that when they were 18-year-old college freshmen, former Trump aide John McEntee “behaved in ways they considered inappropriate in online conversations.”
New Poll Gives Trump the Edge Nationally
A new Quinnipiac poll finds Donald Trump narrowly ahead of Kamala Harris among likely voters, 48% to 47%.
Said pollster Tim Malloy: “On the backstretch of the race to Election Day, all eyes are on which candidate can best stoke their supporter’s enthusiasm all the way to the finish line. A slight shift suggests the Harris crowd is not roaring as loudly as it was last month.”
Joe Manchin Won’t Endorse Kamala Harris
“Vice President Kamala Harris’ vow to gut the Senate’s filibuster rule to pass a bill codifying abortion rights has cost her an endorsement from a leading Senate moderate: Joe Manchin,” CNN reports.
Said Manchin: “Shame on her. She knows the filibuster is the Holy Grail of democracy. It’s the only thing that keeps us talking and working together. If she gets rid of that, then this would be the House on steroids.”
Making Sense of the Confusing Recent Polling
Dan Pfeiffer: “Riding the pollercoaster is an exercise in insanity. A few things to keep in mind (I like to reiterate these reminders every month or so): first, polling is an inexact science. There is a margin for error. A poll that shows Harris up two and one that shows her down two are essentially the same.”
“Second — and I can’t emphasize this enough — polling is not supposed to predict the future. It tells us our present. Let’s say the NYT poll is right. Harris is down two in North Carolina now, but has more than a month to make up that gap. Finally, it is totally okay to ignore all of the polls, but if you must look, focus on the averages. They smooth out the statistical variance inherent in individual polls.”
New Poll Shows Harris Widening Her National Lead
A new Reuters/Ipsos poll finds Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump by seven points in the presidential race, 47% to 40%.
Nebraska Governor Ends Electoral Vote Push
Nebraska Gov. Jim Pillen (R) said Tuesday that he has “no plans to call a special session” to change the way the state allocates electoral votes to a winner-take-all system, ending an effort led by Donald Trump, CNN reports.
For members: A Really Big Deal in Nebraska
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