The White House plans to send its replacement for the North American Free Trade Agreement to Congress after Sept. 1, setting up a vote by the end of the year, sources told CNBC.
The reason for the delay: “The White House and Office of the U.S. Trade Representative are split over how aggressively to push House Democrats to approve the deal.”
“The U.S. is poised to lift steel and aluminum tariffs on Canada and Mexico in favor of stronger enforcement actions… in a move that helps clear the way for USMCA ratification,” Bloomberg reports.
Washington Post: “The scope of the scandal is such that many Canadians are wondering if he will hold on to his majority government the upcoming election. Whatever happens, Trudeau’s rock star status seems like a thing of the past… Nik Nanos, a Canadian pollster, said it was unusual to see Trudeau’s usually savvy team struggle to reshape the narrative.”
Said Nanos: “They have been on the defensive almost daily. We have only really heard one side of the story, plus little snippets from the prime minister.”
“Prime Minister Justin Trudeau of Canada promised a fresh approach to politics, one that was based on openness, decency and liberalism,” the New York Times reports.
“Now he is embroiled in a scandal involving accusations of back-room deal-making and bullying tactics, all to support a Canadian company accused of bribing the Libyan government when it was run by the dictator Muammar el-Qaddafi.”
“Canadian newspapers are filled with outrage and opposition parties are calling for a resignation. Elections are still seven months away, but some members of Mr. Trudeau’s own governing party fear the scandal has armed opposition parties with rich campaign fodder against its leader, who promised ‘sunny ways’ in politics.”
Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) said that senators will not vote to approve a revised North American trade pact in 2018, leaving the issue to the next Congress, Reuters reports.
Said McConnell: “That will be a next year issue because the process we have to go through doesn’t allow that to come up before the end of this year.”
“President Trump hailed a revised North American Free Trade Agreement as a victory for the United States, Canada and Mexico on Monday, saying his get-tough approach to trade, including his use of tariffs, was bringing results,” the New York Times reports.
“Mr. Trump portrayed the new agreement as the fulfillment of a campaign promise to terminate NAFTA, saying he had made good on his plan to rip up ‘the worst trade deal ever made’ and help American businesses and workers.”
Playbook: “This is exceedingly unlikely to be ratified this Congress. That’s what every senior Republican and Democratic aide on Capitol Hill says. It’s going to require a massive whip effort, and the House is out until after the election. If Republicans lose the House, there will be an effort to jam this through in the lame-duck. That will be really tough.”
“The United States and Canada reached a last-minute deal to salvage the North American Free Trade Agreement on Sunday, overcoming deep divisions to keep the 25-year-old trilateral pact intact,” the New York Times reports.
“The deal came after a weekend of frantic talks to try and preserve a trade agreement that has stitched together the economies of Mexico, Canada and the United States but that was on the verge of collapsing. After more than a year of tense talks and strained relations between President Trump and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau of Canada, negotiators from both sides came to a resolution just ahead of a midnight deadline set by the White House.”
“The 11th-hour agreement was punctuated by a frenetic Sunday, with Canada’s leaders teleconferencing throughout the day with top American officials in Washington.”
Bloomberg: “Some people familiar with the talks credited Trump senior adviser Jared Kushner for helping smooth the path toward a deal.”
“Prime Minister Justin Trudeau worked the phones, officials gathered at his office and Canadian stakeholders were called to Ottawa as negotiators came within striking distance of reaching a three-country NAFTA deal on Sunday,” Politico reports.
“These late-stage negotiations are taking place primarily by phone. A public announcement of any new deal would occur late Sunday night, or possibly Monday.”
U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer said negotiators facing a self-imposed Sept. 30 deadline are “sort of running out of time” to include Canada in a new North American trade deal, the Washington Post reports.
If the remaining gaps cannot be bridged in the next few days, the administration will request congressional approval of a deal with Mexico only, he said.
Former U.S. Ambassador to Canada Bruce Heyman told CNBC that President Trump risks seriously damaging the relationship between Canada and the U.S. as he pushes toward a new North American Free Trade Agreement.
Said Helman: “The definition of insanity, just listening to the president there, is how the president has been treating Canada all this time. You know, this is our best trading partner in the world.”
President Trump threatened to push Canada out of the North American Free Trade Agreement if he doesn’t get the concessions he wants.
Said Trump: “There is no political necessity to keep Canada in the new NAFTA deal. If we don’t make a fair deal for the U.S. after decades of abuse, Canada will be out. Congress should not interfere with these negotiations or I will simply terminate NAFTA entirely and we will be far better off.”
However, ABC News notes “it’s not clear whether the Trump administration has the authority to strike a deal with just Mexico, as it announced Monday, and exclude Canada.”
President Trump admitted that he made “off the record” comments to reporters saying he would not offer Canada any concessions in NAFTA negotiations.
Said Trump: “Wow, I made off the record comments to Bloomberg concerning Canada, and this powerful understanding was blatantly violated. Oh well, just more dishonest reporting. I am used to it. At least Canada knows where I stand!”
Axios reports that talks with Canada broke off but will resume next week.
“High-stakes trade negotiations between Canada and the U.S. were dramatically upended on Friday morning by inflammatory secret remarks from President Trump,” after the remarks were obtained by the Toronto Star.
In remarks Trump wanted to be “off the record,” Trump told Bloomberg News reporters yesterday that he is not making any compromises at all in the talks with Canada — but that he cannot say this publicly because “it’s going to be so insulting they’re not going to be able to make a deal.”
Said Trump: “Here’s the problem. If I say no — the answer’s no. If I say no, then you’re going to put that, and it’s going to be so insulting they’re not going to be able to make a deal…I can’t kill these people.”
In another remark he did not want published, Trump said that the possible deal with Canada would be “totally on our terms.”
Axios: “The White House has not denied the report.”
U.S. trade negotiators told Canada that a new NAFTA deal has to be signed by this Friday, Bloomberg reports.
Canadian Foreign Minister Chrystia Freeland has arrived in Washington, D.C. in an attempt to smooth over the problems between her country and the Trump administration.
A new Campaign Research poll in Canada finds that 81% of Canadians said they “disapproved” of the job President Trump is doing, while 11% approved and eight per cent didn’t know.
The poll also found 72% believe Trump’s protectionist policies have “harmed” the Canadian economy, while only 3% said they have “helped.”
“Top Canadian officials, led by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, rushed to express support for Ambassador Kelly Craft after a package containing a suspicious substance and a death threat was mailed to the U.S. diplomat,” Bloomberg reports.
“White powder was found Thursday in a package addressed to Craft at the U.S. embassy in Ottawa and discovered by a mailroom employee at the ambassador’s residence… An expletive-filled letter containing death threats against Craft, Trump, and members of Trump’s family was also enclosed.”
President Trump said that Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau “learned” from the mistake of criticizing him and it’s going to cost Canada “a lot of money,” the Globe and Mail reports.
“He said the Canadian leader must not have realized that Trump had televisions on Air Force One, allowing him to monitor Trudeau’s news conference at the end of the G7 summit.“
New York Times: “It takes a lot to rile people in this decidedly courteous nation. But after President Trump’s parting shots against Prime Minister Justin Trudeau on the day he left the Group of 7 summit meeting in Quebec, the country reacted with uncharacteristic outrage and defiance at a best friend’s nastiness.”
”Canadians across the political spectrum said that while the world had grown used to Mr. Trump’s social media rants, the ferocity and personal tone of the insults against Mr. Trudeau had crossed a line. Some even asked whether Canadians should boycott United States products and stop travel south of the border.”
Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.
Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.
Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.
Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.
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