The White House plans to send its replacement for the North American Free Trade Agreement to Congress after Sept. 1, setting up a vote by the end of the year, sources told CNBC.
The reason for the delay: “The White House and Office of the U.S. Trade Representative are split over how aggressively to push House Democrats to approve the deal.”
Daily Beast: “According to individuals working with the Mexican government, Kushner served as both a source of comfort and a backchannel during a months-long process that was filled with threats of devastating tariffs and accusations that the country wasn’t doing enough to stem the tide of immigration to the U.S’s southern border.”
“Tapping on Kushner for clarity has become a semi-official policy in the top ranks of the offices of President Andrés Manuel López Obrador and Foreign Minister Marcelo Ebrard… One person familiar with the bilateral interactions said that senior Mexican officials had sought aggressively to cultivate Kushner as a primary contact and possible ‘good cop’ since at least early 2017.”
“President Trump boasted of ‘large’ agricultural sales to Mexico as part of a deal reached Friday on border security and illegal immigration that averted the threat of U.S. tariffs, but the deal as released had none, and three Mexican officials say they’re not aware of any side accord,” Bloomberg reports.
“Trump told his 61 million Twitter followers in an all-caps message that Mexico had agreed to ‘immediately begin buying large quantities of agricultural product from our great patriot farmers.'”
Washington Post: “His promise to punish Mexico with escalating tariffs unless it controls what he calls the ‘invasion’ of migrants across the southern border is premised on a law that has never been used either as a tool of immigration policy or tariffs. The International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) mentions neither.”
“Republican senators warned Trump administration officials Tuesday they were prepared to block the president’s effort to impose tariffs on Mexican imports, promising what would be GOP lawmakers’ most brazen defiance of the president since he took office,” the Washington Post reports.
“During a closed-door lunch, at least a half-dozen senators spoke in opposition to the tariffs, while no one spoke in support.”
“Senators told officials from the White House and Department of Justice that there could be a disapproval vote if Trump moves forward — and this time, unlike with an earlier disapproval resolution, opponents of Trump’s tariffs could have enough support to override a veto.”
“President Trump’s top trade adviser opposed the White House’s threat to impose escalating tariffs on Mexico, arguing that the plan could jeopardize a pending North American trade accord,” the Wall Street Journal reports.
“U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer has argued that tariffs on Mexico further cloud prospects for ratification of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement, the proposed successor to Nafta that is already facing significant hurdles in the Democrat-controlled House.”
CNBC: “The tariff was pushed by advisor Stephen Miller, an immigration hawk.”
“The surprise decision to announce the tariff plan came as Trump was ‘riled up’ by conservative radio commentary about the recent surge in border crossings.”
Jonathan Swan: “As Trump announcements go, his planned tariffs on Mexican goods appeared more orchestrated than most with a tweet, a presidential statement from the press office and a background call with reporters.”
“But behind the scenes, it was an administration-wide scramble. As with many presidential ‘announcements,’ this once sprang from intense frustration and boiled over quickly with staff rushing to react. While the plan was hurried out the door to appease Trump, he has been privately talking about doing this for a while.”
“The White House has made a number of immigration demands of Mexico over the past several months, but Trump has not defined what they need to show him… The president’s next move may depend as much on his mood as anything else.”
President Trump said that he planned to impose a 5% tariff on all imported goods from Mexico beginning June 10, a tax that he said would “gradually increase” until Mexico stopped the flow of undocumented immigrants across the border, the New York Times reports.
“President Trump is preparing to threaten Mexico with new tariffs as part of an attempt to force the country to crack down on a surge of Central American migrants seeking asylum in the United States,” the Washington Post reports.
“Trump is planning to make the announcement Friday but some White House aides are trying to talk him out of it, arguing that such a threat would rattle financial markets and potentially imperil passage of the USMCA trade agreement.”
“A senior White House official, however, said there is broad support across the administration to push Mexico further and that Trump’s announcement is likely to happen Friday.”
“The U.S. is poised to lift steel and aluminum tariffs on Canada and Mexico in favor of stronger enforcement actions… in a move that helps clear the way for USMCA ratification,” Bloomberg reports.
President Trump told reporters that if Mexico “does not make progress on stemming the flow of drugs and migrants into the United States within the next year, he will impose tariffs on cars and close the border,” the Washington Post reports.
“Trump had previously said he would close the border, or at least large sections of it, this week if Mexico does not halt illegal immigration into the United States.”
President Trump “threatened to close the U.S. border with Mexico next week, potentially disrupting millions of legal border crossings and billions of dollars in trade if Mexico does not stop immigrants from reaching the United States,” Reuters reports.
Said Trump: “I’ll just close the border, and with a deficit like we have with Mexico and have had for many years, closing the border will be a profit-making operation.”
Vox: “But that is not at all how trade works.”
Incoming White House chief of staff Mick Mulvaney told ABC News that any money for the border wall would have to come from the Treasury Department.
Said Mulvaney: “Technically, you and I both know that it cannot work exactly like that. The department of Homeland Security can’t actually spend money from Mexico. We have to get it from the treasury.”
President Trump tweeted that “Mexico is paying for the wall” through savings to the U.S. in new trade deal.
Said Trump: “I often stated, ‘One way or the other, Mexico is going to pay for the Wall. This has never changed. Our new deal with Mexico (and Canada), the USMCA, is so much better than the old, very costly & anti-USA NAFTA deal, that just by the money we save, MEXICO IS PAYING FOR THE WALL!”
“Outgoing Mexican president Enrique Peña Nieto has stunned the country by bestowing the nation’s highest honor for foreigners on Jared Kushner,” The Guardian reports.
Peña Nieto praised Kushner as “a grand ally of Mexico” who helped achieve a renegotiation of the North American Free Trade Agreement between the US, Canada and Mexico.
President Trump warned that he may take military action to stop immigrants from crossing the southern border into the U.S. if Mexico does not take action to stop the “onslaught,” The Hill reports.
Trump also blamed Democrats for the “assault on our country,” adding that illegal immigration is “far more important” to him than trade or the newly-negotiated trade pact with Mexico and Canada.
Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) said that senators will not vote to approve a revised North American trade pact in 2018, leaving the issue to the next Congress, Reuters reports.
Said McConnell: “That will be a next year issue because the process we have to go through doesn’t allow that to come up before the end of this year.”
“President Trump hailed a revised North American Free Trade Agreement as a victory for the United States, Canada and Mexico on Monday, saying his get-tough approach to trade, including his use of tariffs, was bringing results,” the New York Times reports.
“Mr. Trump portrayed the new agreement as the fulfillment of a campaign promise to terminate NAFTA, saying he had made good on his plan to rip up ‘the worst trade deal ever made’ and help American businesses and workers.”
Playbook: “This is exceedingly unlikely to be ratified this Congress. That’s what every senior Republican and Democratic aide on Capitol Hill says. It’s going to require a massive whip effort, and the House is out until after the election. If Republicans lose the House, there will be an effort to jam this through in the lame-duck. That will be really tough.”
Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.
Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.
Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.
Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.
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