Just dropped · Trial Balloon · Ep. 190
Trump Is Everywhere
“The Democratic Party on Thursday announced it was impaneling a team tasked with examining why the party got pounded in last month’s midterm elections,” the Wall Street Journal reports.
“Unlike Republicans, who after losing the 2012 presidential election commenced an ‘autopsy’ to determine why the party lost, the committee is framing its panel as one that will focus on what the party does well.”
“I do not believe what happened the other night is a wave. There was no wave of approval for the Republicans. I wish them congratulations, they won the election, but there was no wave of approval for anybody. There was an ebbing, an ebb tide, for us.”
— House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D), quoted by Politico.
The Fix: “While the GOP is likely to control 54 percent of all Senate seats and 56 percent (or so) of the House come January, it also will now control more than two-thirds of state legislative chambers across the country — as in nearly seven in 10. And given Republicans also won at least 31 governorships, they are basically in control of the state government in 25 states. That could soon hit 26 if they win the still-undetermined governor’s race in Alaska.”
“The Democrats, meanwhile, control just six states, with a seventh likely to come when the Vermont legislature picks Gov. Peter Shumlin (D) as the winner of last week’s closer-than-expected election, in which neither candidate attained the necessary 50 percent.”
Wonk Wire: Who bankrolled the new Senate majority?
“Democrats are planning an extensive review of what went wrong in the 2014 and 2010 elections,” the AP reports.
“The goal is to find ways to translate success in presidential campaigns into future midterm contests. Democrats will form a committee in the coming weeks to conduct a ‘top-to-bottom assessment’ of the party’s performance in recent elections.”
“Say what you want about the American people; on Tuesday, they were decisive. Very decisive. In fact, of the 435 House and 36 Senate races, only about nine percent of them (41) were decided by single digits,” the Washington Post reports.
“By contrast, in the 2012 presidential election, 83 House districts and 15 states were decided by single digits — about 20 percent of all House districts and 30 percent of all states.”
The breadth of the Republican win was surprising, but the Wall Street Journal highlights six other surprises:
Are there others? Let us know in the comments.
“America has again embraced our long history of electoral overreaction. While it’s true that Republicans won a major victory at the polls, the results tell us far less about future elections than some commentary has suggested,” Brendan Nyhan writes.
“Historically, midterm results, which are typically unfavorable to the president’s party, tell us relatively little about the coming presidential election… The record shows that the president’s party can rebound from major losses to win at the polls in two years. Bill Clinton, for instance, bounced back from the 1994 Republican landslide to easily win re-election in 1996. Similarly, President Obama, whose party suffered major losses in 2010, went on to defeat Mitt Romney in 2012, and George Bush won the 1988 election after Republicans suffered major losses in 1986, President Reagan’s sixth year in office.”
“We’re as back to a majority as any of us have seen in our lifetimes. It may be a hundred-year majority.”
— NRCC Chairman Greg Walden (R-OR), quoted by The Hill, on the expanded Republican majority in the House of Representatives.
“President Obama has lost nearly 70 seats in the House since taking office and more seats in midterm elections than any president since Harry Truman,” The Hill reports.
“Democrats have suffered a net loss of at least 69 House seats since 2008, with the possibility that Republicans could pick up even more seats as the final midterm races are called. Senate Democrats have not fared much better, losing a net of at least 13 seats since Obama took office.”
David Wasserman: “It’s hard to overstate House Democrats’ bad night. By all measures, Republicans enjoyed an historic night, exceeding pre-election expectations across the country. There are fewer than ten races where the outcome is in some doubt, but Republicans appear headed for a 250-seat majority, give or take three seats, for a gain of between 13 and 19. A net gain of 13 would give them their largest majority since Herbert Hoover won the presidency in 1928.”
“Plain and simple, the story in House races was an epic turnout collapse and motivational deficit. Democrats’ surprisingly large losses are attributable to ‘orphan states’ where there was little enthusiasm for top-of-the-ticket Democrats.”
First Read: “It wasn’t the map that did in the Democrats (after all, explain the losses in Maryland and Maine); it’s wasn’t your typical Six-Year Itch election; and it wasn’t an anti-incumbent mood (Rick Scott, Scott Walker, Rick Snyder, even Paul LePage all won). Rather, what we saw was collapse of the Democratic coalition that helped elect President Obama in 2008 and 2012. If Democrats were going to hold off a Republican tsunami, they needed their base voters to come out to the polls and pull the lever for the president’s party. That didn’t happen where Democrats needed it to.”
“Especially with young voters. Nationally, Democratic base groups — young voters, single women, African-Americans and Latinos — posted numbers that looked more like the Democrats’ 2010 midterm ‘shellacking’ than Obama’s 2012 re-election victory. Most strikingly, voters 18-29 nationwide were only 13% of the electorate in 2014 (compared with 22% for GOP-leaning seniors.) In the 2010 midterms, young voters made up 12% of the voting public. In contrast, during Obama’s re-election victory in 2012, 19% of the electorate was under 30.”
Morning Line has an excellent summary of last night’s election results:
SENATE:
Was: 53-45 Democratic advantage with two independents caucusing with the Democrats
Now: 52-43 Republican advantage with two independents. There are still three races that have not yet been called — Virginia, Alaska and Louisiana, but Republicans’ number could move up to 54 seats. They’re leading in Alaska and Rep. Bill Cassidy is the favorite in a head-to-head runoff Dec. 6 with incumbent Sen. Mary Landrieu in Louisiana.
Net gain: +7 currently, could get up to +9.
HOUSE:
Was: 234-201 Republican advantage
Now: 242-174 Republican advantage with 19 seats that have still not been called. But when all the counting is done, Republicans could get up to 250 seats, which is what NBC is projecting. Democrats picked up one seat in Florida, but lost 14.
Net gain: +13 currently, could get up to +19 give or take a few seats.
GOVERNORS:
Was: 29-21 Republican advantage
Now: 31-15 Republican advantage with four races not yet called: Alaska, Colorado, Vermont and Connecticut. Currently, Democrats lead in Colorado, Vermont and Connecticut. By the way, despite the record number of governors at risk, just two incumbents potentially could wind up losing (Pat Quinn, D, in Illinois and Sean Parnell, R, in Alaska) if the Democrats in Colorado and Connecticut, who are leading, win. By the way, in a symbolic blow to Democrats, Vermont Gov. Peter Shumlin did not reach the necessary 50 percent and now the legislature will decide his fate. He is expected to be reelected because it is Democratic-controlled.
Net gain: +3, could drop to +2 if Sean Parnell, who is currently trailing, loses to independent Bill Walker.
Amy Walter: “Democrats believed they could help isolate and insulate their vulnerable Democrats from an unpopular president by making each contest about the individual candidates. Democrats hoped that the tainted GOP brand combined with incumbent candidates with solid political pedigrees who ‘knew their states’ could prevail over the country’s pessimistic mood. It didn’t work.”
“I won’t sugarcoat it – we always knew tonight would be a challenging night. In short, it could have been worse.”
— Rep. Steve Israel (D-NY), quoted by the Atlanta Journal Constitution, sugar coating the election results.
I’ll be tracking the key races here:
KY-Sen: Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) will defeat Alison Lundergan Grimes (D) in Kentucky, according to NBC News projections.
VA-Sen: In a race that almost no one thought was close, there has been no projection of a winner yet.
NH-Sen: Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH) will defeat Scott Brown (R) in New Hampshire, according to ABC News. In violation of the rules, Fox News broadcast exit polls from the New Hampshire almost two hours before polls closed in that state, Politico reports.
AR-Sen: Tom Cotton (R) will beat Sen. Mark Pryor (D-AR) in Arkansas
SD-Sen: Mike Rounds (R) will win the three-way race against Larry Pressler (I) and Rick Weiland (D).
LA-Sen: Sen. Mary Landrieu (D-LA) and Bill Cassidy (R) will head to a December run off.
CO-Sen: Cory Gardner (R) will defeat Sen. Mark Udall (D), according to Fox News and AP.
FL-Gov: Gov. Rick Scott (R) will defeat Charlie Crist (D) for governor.
IA-Sen: Joni Ernst (R) will beat Bruce Braley (R), according to WHO.
WI-Gov: Scott Walker (R) will defeat Mary Burke (D) in the race for governor, according to ABC News and Fox News.
MI-Gov: Rick Snyder (R) will defeat challenger Mark Schauer (D) for governor, says NBC News.
GA-Sen: David Perdue (R) will defeat Michelle Nunn (D) in the Senate race, according to CNN and NBC News.
KS-Sen: Sen. Pat Roberts (R) has fended off a challenge from Greg Orman (I), CBS News reports.
IL-Gov: Bruce Rauner (D) has defeated Gov. Pat Quinn, NBC News reports.
NC-Sen: Thom Tillis (R) will defeat Sen. Kay Hagan (D-NC).
Bottom line: This was a wave election. Nearly every close race was won solidly by Republicans. Republicans are likely to end up with 53 or 54 seats in the Senate and may have more if a couple others — Angus King, Joe Manchin — cross party lines.
Morning Line has an excellent hour-by-hour Election Night cheat sheet which gives you a good guide of what races to watch.
Also, check out the 2014 PBS Election Briefing Book.
Taegan Goddard
Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire -- which for more than two decades has been one of the nation's most influential political news sites.
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