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Trump Way Ahead in Florida

March 13, 2016 at 9:17 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 44 Comments

A new NBC News/Marist poll in Florida finds Donald Trump leading the GOP presidential race with 43%, followed by Marco Rubio at 22%, Ted Cruz at 21% and John Kasich at 9%.

On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton leads Bernie Sanders, 61% to 34%.

A new CBS News/YouGov survey finds Trump leading with 44%, followed by Cruz at 24%, Rubio at 21% and Kasich at 9%.

On the Democratic side, Clinton leads Sanders, 62% to 34%.

Filed Under: 2016 Campaign Tagged With: Florida

Trump Still Way Ahead in Florida

March 12, 2016 at 6:12 pm EST By Taegan Goddard 41 Comments

A new Florida Atlantic University poll finds Donald Trump leading the GOP primary race with 44%, followed by Marco Rubio at 21%, Ted Cruz at 21%, and John Kasich at 9%.

Filed Under: 2016 Campaign Tagged With: Florida

Three New Polls Give Trump Lead In Florida

March 11, 2016 at 6:00 am EST By Taegan Goddard 15 Comments

A Lakeland Ledger/WTSP poll in Florida shows Donald Trump leading the GOP presidential field with 36%, followed by Marco Rubio at 30%, Ted Cruz at 17% and John Kasich at 8%.

A Trafalgar Group poll shows Trump leading with 42%, followed by Rubio at 23%, Cruz at 21% and Kasich at 11%.

A Opinion Saavy survey shows Trump leading with 43%, followed by Rubio at 24%, Cruz at 22% and Kasich at 10%.

 

Filed Under: 2016 Campaign Tagged With: Florida


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Trump Holds Huge Lead in Florida

March 9, 2016 at 8:53 pm EST By Taegan Goddard 16 Comments

A new Fox News poll in Florida finds Donald Trump leads the GOP field with 43%, followed by Marco Rubio at 20%, Ted Cruz at 16% and John Kasich at 10%.

Filed Under: 2016 Campaign Tagged With: Florida

Florida Braces for a High Profile Primary

March 9, 2016 at 3:49 pm EST By Taegan Goddard 18 Comments

“After testing the bounds of vulgarity, factuality and decency, the most surreal presidential campaign in modern times now arrives in the state where hanging chads, romantic dalliances and a mishmash of voting allegiances have made and unmade political careers,” the New York Times reports.

“This is Florida, where campaign money flows like sugar cane runoff and the Republican Party establishment is planning to make what could be its last stand against a man, Donald J. Trump, who embodies many of the state’s stereotypes — the love of a year-round suntan, an obsession with golf, a preening ostentation.”

Filed Under: 2016 Campaign Tagged With: Florida

Trump Leads In Florida

March 9, 2016 at 11:02 am EST By Taegan Goddard 39 Comments

A new CNN/ORC poll in Florida, finds Donald Trump leads the GOP presidential field with 40%, followed by Marco Rubio at 24%, Ted Cruz at 19% and John Kasich at 5%.

On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton leads Bernie Sanders, 61% to 34%.

A new Quinnipiac poll shows Trump leading with 45%, followed by Rubio at 22%, Cruz at 18% and Kasich at 8%.

A new Washington Post/Univision poll shows Clinton leading Sanders, 64% to 26%.

Filed Under: 2016 Campaign Tagged With: Florida

The Importance of Open vs. Closed Primaries

March 9, 2016 at 10:55 am EST By Taegan Goddard 54 Comments

First Read: “One of the big secrets to Trump’s and Sanders’ success last night was the ‘open’ nature of last night’s primaries in Mississippi and Michigan. In Michigan, 31% of the voters were independents, and Trump bested Kasich among them, 36%-27%. And on the Democratic side in Michigan, Clinton won Democrats by a 57%-41% margin, but Sanders won among indies (who made up 28% of the electorate), 71%-28%.”

“Looking ahead to next week’s contests, Florida is a closed primary, while Ohio isn’t as open as Michigan is. Per Ohio’s election law, you declare your political party affiliation by requesting the ballot of a political party in a partisan primary election. If you do not desire to affiliate with a political party in Ohio, you are considered to be an unaffiliated voter. An unaffiliated voter does not vote the ballot of a political party in a primary election. However, an unaffiliated voter may vote the Official Questions & Issues Ballot, if there is one for the voter’s precinct at the election.”

Filed Under: 2016 Campaign Tagged With: Florida, Ohio

Cruz Bets on Knocking Rubio Out In Florida

March 8, 2016 at 7:43 am EST By Taegan Goddard 29 Comments

“Ted Cruz is threatening to make one of the biggest gambles of the 2016 season: diving into Florida to knock off Marco Rubio,” Politico reports.

“Cruz has little chance of winning the March 15 Florida primary… The aim: pull enough voters away from Rubio to ensure Donald Trump wins the state’s 99 delegates and deny the Florida senator any pick-up opportunity elsewhere by forcing him to defend his turf. Doing that gives Trump a bigger lead in delegates, but it means Cruz has calculated he can catch up.”

Filed Under: 2016 Campaign Tagged With: Florida, Ted Cruz

Trump Way Ahead In Florida

March 8, 2016 at 7:10 am EST By Taegan Goddard 14 Comments

A new SurveyUSA poll in Florida finds Donald Trump leading the GOP field with 42%, followed by Marco Rubio at 22%, Ted Cruz at 17% and John Kasich at 10%.

Filed Under: 2016 Campaign Tagged With: Florida

Trump Maintains Lead in Florida

March 7, 2016 at 2:11 pm EST By Taegan Goddard 26 Comments

A new Monmouth poll in Florida finds Donald Trump leading the GOP field with 38%, followed by Marco Rubio at 30%, Ted Cruz at 17% and John Kasich at 10%.

Said pollster Patrick Murray: “Rubio is within shooting distance in his home state with a week to go in this volatile nomination contest. It is telling, though, that Rubio is not even the clear victor in a direct face off with Trump. There goes the argument that Rubio would triumph if only it were a two person race.”

Filed Under: 2016 Campaign Tagged With: Florida

Why Rubio Could Finish Third in Florida

March 6, 2016 at 7:07 pm EST By Taegan Goddard 6 Comments

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Filed Under: 2016 Campaign, Members Tagged With: Florida, Marco Rubio

Poll Finds Narrowing Florida Race

March 5, 2016 at 10:37 am EST By Taegan Goddard 30 Comments

A Tarrance Group poll in Florida — conducted for the anti-Trump group Our Principles PAC — finds Donald Trump leading with 35%, followed by Marco Rubio at 30%, Ted Cruz at 16%, John Kasich at 9% and Ben Carson at 5%.

Filed Under: 2016 Campaign Tagged With: Florida

Cruz Moves to Knock Out Rubio In Florida

March 5, 2016 at 9:16 am EST By Taegan Goddard 45 Comments

Sen. Ted Cruz “is moving hard into Florida, where the senator from Texas hopes to knock out rival Sen. Marco Rubio and position himself as the only last alternative to front-runner Donald Trump,” the Washington Post reports.

“Cruz’s campaign announced Friday that it is opening 10 field offices in Florida, which holds a Republican primary March 15. Trump has a big lead in the polls there, but Cruz’s campaign thinks it can increase its support in the state by appealing to conservatives and positioning the candidate as an alternative to Trump.”

Filed Under: 2016 Campaign Tagged With: Florida, Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz

Rubio Is Now Scrambling In Florida

March 4, 2016 at 4:24 pm EST By Taegan Goddard 108 Comments

Politico: “According to Republican consultants and political observers from Tallahassee to Orlando to Tampa to Miami, there’s virtually no evidence that Rubio has the robust campaign in place that’s needed to shrink — let alone overcome — Trump’s lead, which ranges from 7 to 20 percentage points, depending on the poll. For weeks, his team hasn’t blanketed known early voters with mail, and they weren’t calling Republicans statewide until just a few days ago.”

Filed Under: 2016 Campaign Tagged With: Florida

Scott Will Not Make Endorsement

March 4, 2016 at 7:00 am EST By Taegan Goddard 8 Comments

Florida Gov. Rick Scott (R), “a Republican who won a 2010 primary as an insurgent businessman running against a veteran politician, said on Thursday that he would not make an endorsement before the presidential primary in his state on March 15,” the New York Times reports.

“The statement came amid speculation that Mr. Scott might endorse Donald J. Trump, another insurgent outsider who owns property in Florida. Mr. Scott recently praised Mr. Trump in a newspaper opinion piece.”

Filed Under: 2016 Campaign Tagged With: Florida, Rick Scott

Trump Holds Wide Lead in Florida

February 26, 2016 at 6:51 am EST By Taegan Goddard 26 Comments

A new Public Policy Polling survey in Florida shows Donald Trump way ahead of the GOP field with 45%, followed by Marco Rubio at 25%, Ted Cruz at 10%, John Kasich at 8% and Ben Carson at 5%.

In a two-man race with Rubio, Trump still leads by double digits at 52% to 38%.

Filed Under: 2016 Campaign Tagged With: Florida

Trump Way Ahead in Florida

February 25, 2016 at 10:35 am EST By Taegan Goddard 105 Comments

A new Quinnipiac poll in Florida finds Donald Trump leading the GOP presidential with 44%, followed by favorite son Marco Rubio at 28%, Ted Cruz at 12%, John Kasich at 7% and Ben Carson at 4%.

Said pollster Peter Brown: “Florida is the single biggest prize of the primary season because it is the largest state to allocate its delegates on a winner-take-all basis. If Sen. Rubio can’t win in his own home state, it is difficult to see how he can win elsewhere.”

Filed Under: 2016 Campaign Tagged With: Florida

Trump Surges Way Ahead in Florida

January 20, 2016 at 10:26 am EST By Taegan Goddard 74 Comments

A new Florida Atlantic University poll in Florida finds Donald Trump leading the GOP presidential field with 48% support among likely Republican voters, followed Ted Cruz at 16%, Marco Rubio at 11% and Jeb Bush at 10%.

Said pollster Kevin Wagner: “At this point, Donald Trump is simply crushing the opposition in the Florida Republican primary. Not only has he increased his lead, Mr. Trump’s favorability ratings among Republicans are now ahead of his competitors by a substantial margin.”

Filed Under: 2016 Campaign Tagged With: Florida

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About Political Wire

goddard-bw-snapshotTaegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.

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