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Florida Democrat Apologizes for Affair with Lobbyist

October 27, 2017 · 7:00 am ET · Leave a Comment

Florida state Sen. Jeff Clemens (D), the incoming leader of Florida’s Senate Democrats, apologized for having an affair with a lobbyist during the last legislative session, Politico reports.

Said Clemens: “I used poor judgment and hurt people that I care about, and for that I apologized long ago. But I also owe my constituents and colleagues an apology and I intend to do just that.”

“The affair between Clemens and lobbyist Devon West came to a head at the end of the regular spring lawmaking session, when West came into possession of Clemens’ Apple laptop, and gained access to all his contacts and personal information and then informed his wife of the tryst.”

Lobbyists, State House Florida

Exodus From Puerto Rico Could Remake Florida Politics

October 6, 2017 · 3:46 pm ET · Leave a Comment

New York Times: “Every day dozens of Puerto Ricans pour into the Orlando area, fleeing their homes and lives ravaged by Hurricane Maria. In the months to come, officials here said, that number could surge to more than 100,000. And those numbers could remake politics in Florida, a state where the last two presidential and governor’s races were decided by roughly one percentage point or less.”

“There are more than a million Puerto Ricans in Florida, a number that has doubled since 2001, driven largely until now by a faltering economy. But their political powers have evolved slowly in this state, and the wave of potential voters from the island could quickly change that calculus.”

State House Florida, Puerto Rico

How Hurricane Maria Could Tip Florida to Democrats

September 28, 2017 · 8:33 am ET · Leave a Comment

James Hohmann: “More than 50 million ballots were cast by Floridians in the seven presidential elections from 1992 through 2016. If you add them all up, only 18,000 votes separate the Republicans from the Democrats. That is 0.04 percent.”

“Florida is rightfully considered the swingiest of swing states. Control of the White House in 2000 came down to a few hundred hanging chads – and one vote on the Supreme Court. The past four statewide elections – two governor’s races and two presidentials – were all decided by a single percentage point.”

“So it could be quite politically significant that tens of thousands of Puerto Ricans, maybe more, are expected to permanently move into Florida as the result of Hurricane Maria.”

Environment Florida

Democrats Worry About Florida Ground Game

September 30, 2016 · 9:33 am ET · Leave a Comment

Tampa Bay Times: “Despite roughly 500 full time campaign staffers spread across Florida to help Clinton win forever close Florida, party leaders and activists across the state are fretting about the campaign’s ground game. Even Clinton campaign staffers in other states are quietly buzzing about the Florida campaign struggling to meet its goals for voter registration and other outreach benchmarks.”

2016 Campaign Florida

White Voters Keep Florida Close

September 19, 2016 · 7:06 am ET · Leave a Comment

Nate Cohn: “Donald Trump has almost no plausible path to the White House unless he wins Florida, a rapidly changing state where Hispanic voters could deal a decisive blow to his chances.”

“But a new poll, by The New York Times Upshot/Siena College, suggests that Mr. Trump is keeping his hopes alive in Florida, the largest and most diverse of the crucial battleground states. The reason: White voters favor him by a large margin.”

2016 Campaign Florida

Why Trump Can Still Win Florida

September 15, 2016 · 6:51 am ET · Leave a Comment

Politico: “But at its core, the race is about race, about motivating white versus non-white voters. The whiter the electorate, the likelier it is Trump wins. And older whites are keeping Trump in the hunt.”

“Without the backing of older whites, polls indicate Trump would lose Florida — in this retirement mecca, the elderly are still a force at the ballot box. Of Florida’s 12.4 million active registered voters, more than 3.3 million are older than 65 years old, making them the largest age group on the rolls (followed by those 50 to 64). The elderly also have the highest turnout rate in Florida.”

“When it comes to race, non-Hispanic whites are 65 percent of the overall voter rolls and are the most-reliable voters.”

2016 Campaign, Race Florida

Clinton Has Huge Swing State Lead with Latinos

September 14, 2016 · 11:31 am ET · Leave a Comment

A new Univision poll of Latino voters in Arizona, Colorado, Florida and Nevada shows Hillary Clinton trouncing Donald Trump among this critical voting bloc.

In Florida, Trump trails Clinton by 24 percentage points — the closest margin out of the four states. Clinton leads Trump 68% to 18% in Arizona, 65% to 19% in Nevada and 62% to 17% in Colorado.

Florida, Colorado and Nevada are three battleground states where Latinos are likely to make up more than 10% of the electorate this year.

2016 Campaign Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Nevada

GOP Losing Ground In Florida

September 1, 2016 · 1:32 pm ET · Leave a Comment

Tampa Bay Times: “Of the 534,000 new voters added to the rolls this year, Democrats say more than 180,000 are Democrats and nearly 156,000 are Republicans. Less than 4 percent of the nearly 63,000 new African-American voters are Republican, and just 16 percent of the new Hispanic voters are Republican.”

2016 Campaign Florida

Trump Still Has No Ground Game In Florida

August 31, 2016 · 9:10 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“How many of the 24 field offices that Team Trump said in early August they’d open this month in Florida are now up and running? None yet, according to Republican officials in the state.”

“The Republican presidential nominee has one of his campaign’s weakest ground games in his most crucial swing state, several political insiders and donors told Bloomberg Politics. Now, some Republicans are worried it’s getting too late to recover, with vote-by-mail ballots going out starting in late September and Democrats pledging a big push in early voting.”

2016 Campaign Florida

Florida Is a State, Not a Place

August 19, 2016 · 4:30 am ET · Leave a Comment

Steve Schale: “Most states are places. Think about Texas, or even a state like Iowa, there is a sense of place to it, a commonality of experience – or as marketers might say, almost a brand. Most states have it. Florida really doesn’t.”

“Florida isn’t a place in the same sense. It is a political circle, drawing 20 million people from vast, and I mean vast experiences and cultures into one spot. And almost everyone here has come from somewhere else.”

“Florida is the new Ellis Island, except our ships come as cars and planes, from inside the borders of the country, and outside. Over the next 15 years, we might add as many as 5 million more residents, grow to as much as 30% Hispanic, with a total population of well more than 50% coming from what are typically considered ethnic minorities.”

2016 Campaign Florida

Florida Insiders See Trump Losing State

August 11, 2016 · 7:24 am ET · Leave a Comment

A Tampa Bay Times Florida Insider Poll this week finds that three in four expected Clinton will win Florida.

“At the same, however, an even more overwhelming majory of the political consultants, fundraisers, academics, and the like surveyed -almost 80 percent – expect Republican Marco Rubio will win reelection in November.”

2016 Campaign Florida

Trump Just Ahead In Florida

July 11, 2016 · 6:03 pm ET · Leave a Comment

A new OnMessage poll in Florida shows Donald Trump just ahead of Hillary Clinton in the presidential race, 47% to 45%.

For comparison, the HuffPost Pollster average shows Clinton ahead, 48% to 41%.

2016 Campaign Florida

Clinton Holds Small Lead in Florida

June 30, 2016 · 6:17 am ET · Leave a Comment

A new SurveyUSA poll in Florida shows Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by four points, 46% to 42%.

2016 Campaign Florida

Clinton Holds Edge In Florida

June 3, 2016 · 8:39 am ET · 50 Comments

A new Mason-Dixon poll in Florida shows Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by three points in the critical battleground state, 45% to 42%.

2016 Campaign Florida

Trump Has No Florida Strategy

May 21, 2016 · 4:05 pm ET · 120 Comments

NBC News: “The Trump campaign has said it will focus on about a dozen states during the general election, including Florida, but the candidate has not held a single campaign event there since winning the state’s primary in March… Even though Trump has become the presumptive nominee well before his Democratic rival, his general election team doesn’t yet have a real presence in the state. The campaign has yet to set up any of the infrastructure necessary to win a campaign in Florida, leaving its 29 delegates very much up in the air.”

“Trump’s lack of a ground game isn’t surprising. It’s been a criticism of his campaign throughout the primary process, but as both parties turn to the general election, the lack of local organization becomes more of an issue.”

2016 Campaign Donald Trump, Florida

Rubio Says He’ll Stay In Race Regardless

March 15, 2016 · 4:45 pm ET · 50 Comments

Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) vowed to stay in the presidential race even if he loses Florida tonight, Politico reports.

Said Rubio: “Tomorrow, our plan is to be in Utah campaigning irrespective of tonight. It would be a lot better to go to Utah being the winner of the Florida primary. It would give us a tremendous amount of momentum. It would give us 99 delegates, and that’s the way we want to do it tonight.”

He added: “I can’t guarantee a win today. I’m telling you I expect to win tonight, but we are not 20 points behind. I mean, that’s absurd.”

2016 Campaign Florida, Marco Rubio

Trump Holds Commanding Lead In Florida

March 14, 2016 · 8:01 am ET · 42 Comments

A new Quinnipiac poll in Florida finds Donald Trump leading the GOP primary race with 46%, followed by Marco Rubio at 22%, Ted Cruz at 14% and John Kasich at 10%.

In the Democratic race, Hillary Clinton leads Bernie Sanders 60% to 34%.

A new Monmouth poll in Florida finds Trump leading with 44%, followed by Rubio at 27%, Cruz at 17% and Kasich at 9%.

2016 Campaign Florida

Member feature

What If Trump Loses Ohio?

March 13, 2016 · 5:57 pm ET · 23 Comments

This piece is only available to Political Wire members.

March 15th is a big day for Donald Trump. If he wins in Ohio and Florida, he’ll be virtually unstoppable for the Republican nomination.

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2016 Campaign, Members Donald Trump, Florida, Illiinois, Missouri, Ohio

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Taegan Goddard

Taegan Goddard

Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire -- which for more than two decades has been one of the nation's most influential political news sites.

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