In a potentially seismic shift in the Republican race for Illinois governor, a new Chicago Sun-Times/WBEZ Poll finds farmer Darren Bailey (R) with a 15-percentage-point lead over Aurora Mayor Richard Irvin (R) less than three weeks before the GOP primary, 32% to 17%.

“If the numbers hold, it would represent a brutal repudiation by Illinois’ Republican voters of Irvin, his array of mainstream party endorsements and, most pointedly, his $50 million benefactor, Chicago hedge fund tycoon Ken Griffin.”

Billionaire Ken Griffin (R) gave another $5 million — for a total of $50 million — to Richard Irvin’s (R) campaign for Illinois governor, Capitol Fax reports.

“Billionaire Ken Griffin has upped his investment in Aurora Mayor Richard Irvin’s Republican bid for governor, kicking in an additional $25 million to the campaign after seeding Irvin’s candidacy with an initial $20 million,” the Chicago Tribune reports.

“By doubling his financial commitment to Irvin, Griffin appears to be showing confidence in a campaign strategy that has been high in the use of TV ads and mailers while low in public contact and visibility.”

Hedge fund executive Ken Griffin, the wealthiest person in Illinois, gave Richard Irvin’s (R) gubernatorial campaign $20 million — the first of what is expected to be several big donations to counter Gov. J.B. Pritzker (D), the Chicago Tribune reports.

Pritzker has already poured $125.5 million of his own money into his reelection campaign, after spending $171 million of his own money in the 2018 campaign.

“Since announcing his reelection bid in July, Democratic Gov. J.B. Pritzker has spent nearly $7 million in advertising, a sign of what confronts the four announced prospective Republican challengers seeking to take on the billionaire incumbent in next year’s election,” the Chicago Tribune reports.

Politico: “Illinois — the sixth-biggest state, by population — has seen its credit rating cut to near-junk status in the decade since the financial crisis. Its bonds are now considered as risky as those of Russia and Romania. Its pension system is in worse shape than that of almost any other state. Springfield, the state capital, has grown so paralyzed that Illinois’ own governor compared the state to ‘a banana republic.’”

“And a bitter standoff between Gov. Bruce Rauner, a Republican, and Democrats in the state Legislature has left Illinois more than $7 billion in unpaid bills and a sense among the state’s residents and creditors that Illinois might not be governable anymore. … Looming over the campaign is not just the question of whether either candidate has a real plan to fix the state, but whether anyone can.”

A new NBC News/Marist poll in Illinois finds J.B. Pritzker (D) leads Gov. Bruce Rauner (R) in the governor’s race, 46% to 30%, with Libertarian nominee Kash Jackson at 6%.

Politico: “Billionaire J.B. Pritzker (D) dropped $25 million into his campaign this week and Gov. Bruce Rauner’s (R) campaign is preparing to air at least $1 million in attack ads beginning Tuesday, keeping the Illinois governor’s election on track to be one of the most expensive in U.S. history.

“After a brief ceasefire, the two wealthy businessmen restarted their frenzied pace of spending this week for an election that’s still five months away. Pritzker, who has already pumped $100 million of his own personal wealth into the contest, has not set a limit on what he’s willing to spend.”

“In fact, a source close to the Pritzker campaign said, the Democratic businessman is vowing to spend double whatever multimillionaire Rauner puts into the contest.”

Illinois state Sen. Sam McCann (R) launched a third-party bid for Illinois governor, “exacerbating tensions in the party as Gov. Bruce Rauner (R) tries to heal them ahead of November’s contest against Democratic candidate J.B. Pritzker (D),” the Chicago Tribune reports.

McCann is running as what he called an “independent conservative,” telling Politico that he felt “called to serve” to counter the prospect of having only two “billionaires from Chicago” on the November ballot.

A new Ogden & Fry poll in Illinois finds J.B. Pritzker (D) running way ahead of Gov. Bruce Rauner (R) in the governor’s race, 46% to 28%.

Key finding: Rauner’s approval rating is a dismal 32% to 68%.

“Democratic billionaire J.B. Pritzker will take on wealthy Republican Gov. Bruce Rauner in November, a race expected to easily shatter Illinois campaign spending records and make a run at the national mark,” the Chicago Tribune reports.

“Both candidates enter a nearly eight-month general election campaign needing to unify their respective parties following bruising primary campaigns. More than half of Democratic voters preferred one of the other five candidates to Pritzker, while Rauner narrowly beat back a strong challenge from conservative state Rep. Jeanne Ives (R).”

“To a large extent, Rauner’s task is the more daunting. It’s difficult for a Republican to win statewide in Democrat-leaning Illinois, and this fall is a midterm election in which Republican President Donald Trump remains deeply unpopular here.”

First Read: “Rauner received a primary challenge from Jeanne Ives, who made national headlines for running a highly controversial ad that included — among other things — a male actor dressed as a woman ‘thanking’ Rauner for ‘signing legislation that lets me use the girl’s bathroom.’ She’s picked up some key conservative allies and donors (including megadonor Richard Uihlein) who accuse Rauner of siding too often with Democratic causes. And the Democratic Governors Association has even been running TV ads calling Ives ‘too conservative,’ which is reminiscent of how Missouri Democrats played in the 2012 primary that Todd Akin ultimately won.”

“Rauner should still be considered the favorite to win today’s primary in his rocky road to re-election. But political analyst Nathan Gonzales, the editor and publisher of Inside Elections, tweeted last night: ‘Multiple GOP sources believe Gov. Rauner could lose #ILGov primary tomorrow night, or at least closer than expected for a challenge to a multi-millionaire incumbent governor.’ If Rauner loses, he’d be the first Illinois governor seeking re-election to lose a primary in 42 years.”

First Read: “We’re used to seeing some pretty eye-popping sums on television advertising, but the spending in the Illinois governors race is really off the charts. Two extremely wealthy candidates— incumbent Republican Gov. Bruce Rauner and Democratic frontrunner and billionaire J.B. Pritzker — have faced tougher-than-expected primary challenges, and they’ve been shoveling cash into ad buys for months ahead of Tuesday’s election day.”

“Pritzker’s campaign alone has spent over $33 million on TV ads, while Rauner has spent more than $16 million. All told, the spending (for a primary!) is over $65 million already. If the two super-wealthy candidates face off for a long general election here, this is set to be the most expensive race in the country — without anyone else even coming close. And our ad gurus say that it’s on track to be the most expensive non-presidential race they’ve ever tracked.”

“We are gonna blow him up and take him down… I’m gonna pound him, we’re gonna beat him. And I’m excited to do it.”

— Illinois Gov. Bruce Rauner (R), quoted by Capitol Fax, on running against J.B. Pritzker (D).

A new Southern Illinois University poll finds J.B. Pritzker (D) leading Gov. Bruce Rauner (R) in a possible gubernatorial race, 50% to 35%.

In another possible match up, Daniel Biss (D) leads Rauner, 48% to 34%.

In the Democratic primary, Pritzker leads Biss, 31% to 21%, with Chris Kennedy at 17%.

Chicago Tribune: “The latest $7 million Democratic governor candidate J.B. Pritzker (D) gave to his campaign puts him at more than $56 million for the primary, surpassing the $50 million ‘first installment’ Republican Gov. Bruce Rauner (R) pumped into his re-election bid in late 2016.”