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The Bluegrass State Showdown

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First Read notes today’s marquee contest: Kentucky’s gubernatorial race between Jack Conway (D) and Matt Bevin (R).

“Back in the summer, we dubbed the race possibly the Last Obama War, because it largely hinges on this question: Whom do Kentucky voters dislike more — President Obama or the Tea Party? (Of course, we could also see this same dynamic play out in the Louisiana gubernatorial race on Nov. 21.) The Conway-Bevin race also has a lot at stake, too — the future of the state’s health-care exchange (Bevin says he will eliminate it), Rand Paul’s Senate seat in 2016 (if Democrats win, we bet you they’ll be emboldened to find a challenger to Paul), and Kim Davis and religious also have been issues in this race.”

Final polling places in Kentucky close at 6:00 pm ET (in the eastern part of the state) and 7:00 pm ET (in the central time zone).

Is Matt Bevin Trying to Lose the Governor’s Race?

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Sam Youngman: “The Republican candidate’s sometimes bizarre behavior, oscillations on major policy issues and lack of advertising have all combined to make Bevin one of Democrat Jack Conway’s top allies with a month to go until Election Day.”

“That might help explain Bevin’s ill-advised and jaw-dropping decision to show up at Kentucky Democratic Party headquarters on Friday to complain to the receptionist about the sign KDP has outside its building questioning Bevin’s trustworthiness. It was Bevin’s second trip to the headquarters to complain about the sign.”

“Conway has certainly not set the world on fire with his campaign, vague policy proposals or charm. And he has taken much criticism for his campaign strategy of focusing on fundraising instead of traditional campaign rallies. But Bevin seems to be working very hard to make Conway’s campaign strategists look like geniuses.”

Are Republicans Giving Up in Kentucky?

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The Republican Governor’s Association has stopped running television ads for Matt Bevin (R) in Kentucky with a little more than a month to go until Election Day, the AP reports.

“The association has spent $3 million on six ads for Bevin, mostly attacking his Democratic opponent, Jack Conway, for supporting the policies of Democratic President Barack Obama… The move is a blow for Bevin, who has aired just one TV ad after spending more than $1 million of his own money to win a four-way Republican primary in May.”

Bevin Won’t Raise Money

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Kentucky gubernatorial candidate Matt Bevin (R), who is self-financing his campaign, “appears to be taking a pass on raising money for himself, saying in reply to the question about hiring that Kentucky hasn’t had a chance to elect ‘someone who is unencumbered by anybody and anything’ since Democrat John Y. Brown Jr. was elected in 1979,” the Louisville Courier Journal reports.

Said Bevin: “It is equally unnerving to Republicans and Democrats.”

Bevin Moves to Make Gay Marriage Key Issue of Race

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Kentucky gubernatorial candidate Matt Bevin (R) said that he fully supports County Clerk Kim Davis’ right to refuse gay couples seeking marriage licenses, the Louisville Courier Journal reports.

Said Bevin: “I absolutely support her willingness to stand on her First Amendment rights. Without any question I support her.”

“The strong defense of Davis’ actions underscores how the GOP nominee hopes to make the fight over gay marriage a centerpiece of the 2015 governor’s race, which polling shows is a tight race between him and Democratic nominee Jack Conway.”

Bevin Declines to Endorse Paul

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Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) endorsed Matt Bevin (R) for Kentucky governor, but when asked later if he was backing Paul in his bid for the presidency, Bevin refused to say, the Louisville Courier Journal reports.

Said Bevin: “At this point, I’m running for governor and that’s what my focus is on. I am delighted that Rand is running, I have made very clear that I’m a supporter of that idea. I’m running for governor, I have made no endorsement whatsoever.”

Bevin Faces Divided Party in Kentucky

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Presumptive Kentucky GOP gubernatorial nominee Matt Bevin (R) is facing a divided party as he prepares for the fall election, the Lexington Herald Leader reports.

“Bevin has clearly tried to begin winning over some of the Republican establishment… But Bevin, as he has since last November, blamed the media for creating a perception that he didn’t support U.S. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell after losing to him in the primary last year. Although Bevin repeatedly declined to publicly endorse McConnell, he argued that he did work hard for the Republican ticket last fall.”

Cook Political Report: “Democrats – and specifically state Attorney General Jack Conway – were the biggest winners on primary night. Conway faced just token opposition for Democratic nomination for this open seat. The race for the Republicans nomination was far more interesting and ultimately beneficial to Democrats.”

GOP Primary in Kentucky Too Close to Call

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“The race for the Republican gubernatorial election went down to the wire and then some Tuesday night,” the Lexington Herald Leader reports.

“After 214,187 votes were counted, Louisville businessman Matt Bevin held an 83-vote lead over Commissioner of Agriculture James Comer, but Comer said late Tuesday night that he owed it to his supporters to ask for a recanvass.”

Bevin’s Improbable Comeback

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Matt Bevin (R), “the upstart Kentucky Republican who famously locked horns with Mitch McConnell in a no-holds-barred 2014 Senate primary, is now running for governor. At first, his hopes for victory appeared all but impossible,” National Journal reports.

“But now, days before the May 19 primary, a dramatic turn of events—largely surrounding dueling allegations of domestic violence and accessory to slander between Bevin’s two primary rivals—have left the tea-party-aligned Bevin with a chance at victory.”

About Political Wire

goddard-bw-snapshotTaegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

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