A new Monmouth poll in Pennsylvania’s 18th congressional district finds Rick Saccone (R) with a small advantage over Conor Lamb (D).
Using a turnout model similar to voting patterns seen in other special elections over the past year, Saccone leads by 49% to 46%. A historical turnout model, based on lower turnout than the 2014 midterm, gives Saccone a larger 50% to 45% lead. A model with higher turnout overall, similar to a presidential election, gives Saccone a 48% to 44% advantage.
President Trump won the district in 2016 by 20 percentage points.
Also interesting: 48% say they support “what President Trump is doing,” while 47% opposed him.