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Just dropped · Trial Balloon · Ep. 191

Blue Wave Update

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Trial Balloon · Ep. 191: Blue Wave Update

Pennsylvania Governor Shifts To Solid Democrat

March 11, 2026 · 3:43 pm ET · Leave a Comment

Cook Political Report: “In the race for Pennsylvania’s governorship, the most significant development is what hasn’t come to pass.”

“Despite landing their preferred recruit against Democratic Gov. Josh Shapiro, Republicans look no closer to ousting the moderate incumbent than they were a year ago. Shapiro has an approval rating consistently around 60%, a gargantuan cash-on-hand advantage and a decisive polling lead over GOP state Treasurer Stacy Garrity, making it almost impossible to see him coming up short in his quest for a second term.”

“This contest shifts from Likely Democrat to Solid Democrat as a result, taking the sole statewide race in the nation’s quintessential bellwether off the 2026 playing field.”

2026 Campaign PA-Gov

Josh Shapiro Gets a Challenger

August 18, 2025 · 8:57 am ET · Leave a Comment

Pennsylvania Treasurer Stacy Garrity (R) announced she is challenging Gov. Josh Shapiro (D), “giving establishment Republicans in the state a recruiting win,” Politico reports.

2026 Campaign PA-Gov

GOP Lawmaker Won’t Challenge Josh Shapiro

July 8, 2025 · 3:27 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“At a rally in Pittsburgh in May, Rep. Dan Meuser (R-PA) received the most powerful co-sign in Republican politics: an endorsement from President Donald Trump in the upcoming gubernatorial race,” ABC News reports.

“But after months of speculation, Meuser has recently told associates he will not enter the race to challenge Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro (D).”

2026 Campaign PA-Gov

Doug Mastriano Wants a Rematch

February 25, 2025 · 3:41 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“Doug Mastriano (R) is considering another run for Pennsylvania governor in 2026, setting up a potential rematch with Gov. Josh Shapiro (D) after he beat Mastriano by nearly 15 percentage points in the last election,” the Philadelphia Inquirer reports.

“Shapiro is up for reelection in 2026 and remains unusually popular in the swing state that voted for President Donald Trump in November.”

2026 Campaign PA-Gov

Dan Meuser Mulls Bid for Pennsylvania Governor

January 9, 2025 · 5:26 pm ET · Leave a Comment

Rep. Dan Meuser (R-PA) signaled he is seriously considering challenging Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro (D) for his post in 2026, The Hill reports.

2026 Campaign PA-Gov

Doug Mastriano Looks Like He’s Gearing Up for 2026

July 30, 2023 · 2:53 pm ET · Leave a Comment

Doug Mastriano (R) “is in the very early days of another run for governor in 2026, which raises the prospect of a rematch with Gov. Josh Shapiro, who soundly defeated him last year,” the Philadelphia Inquirer reports.

2026 Campaign PA-Gov

Doug Mastriano Concedes

November 14, 2022 · 7:18 am ET · Leave a Comment

Doug Mastriano (R), who denied the results of the 2020 presidential election were accurate, conceded to Josh Shapiro (D) in Pennsylvania’s race for governor, the Philadelphia Inquirer reports.

2022 Campaign PA-Gov

Shapiro Doesn’t Care to Hear from Mastriano

November 13, 2022 · 2:07 pm ET · Leave a Comment

Pennsylvania Gov.-elect Josh Shapiro (D) said that his Republican opponent, Doug Mastriano, has not called to concede the race after major media outlets projected his loss on Tuesday night, The Hill reports.

Said Shapiro: “I mean, who cares if he calls, right?”

He added: “He doesn’t get to pick the winner, the people pick the winner. And in a resounding way, they made clear that they wanted me to lead this commonwealth forward.”

2022 Campaign PA-Gov

Democrats Deploy Biden and Obama to Pennsylvania

October 24, 2022 · 4:19 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“President Biden and former President Barack Obama will barnstorm the Philadelphia and Pittsburgh areas on Nov. 5 with the party’s nominees for Pennsylvania governor and Senate,” Axios reports.

2022 Campaign PA-Gov, PA-Sen

Shapiro Way Ahead in Pennsylvania

October 24, 2022 · 12:29 pm ET · Leave a Comment

A new CNN poll in Pennsylvania finds Josh Shapiro (D) leading Doug Mastriano (R) in the race for governor, 56% to 41%, among likely voters.

In the Senate race, John Fetterman (D) is ahead of Mehmet Oz (R), 51% to 45%.

2022 Campaign PA-Gov

Fetterman Maintains Small Lead in Pennsylvania

October 21, 2022 · 1:43 pm ET · Leave a Comment

A new Echelon Insights poll in Pennsylvania finds John Fetterman (D) slightly ahead of Mehmet Oz (R) in the U.S. Senate race, 46% to 43%.

In the governor’s race, Josh Shapiro (D) leads Doug Mastriano (R), 50% to 38%.

2022 Campaign PA-Gov, PA-Sen

Josh Shapiro Warns of Doug Mastriano’s Extremism

October 20, 2022 · 2:47 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“As he campaigns for governor across Pennsylvania, Democrat Josh Shapiro tells voters how his Jewish faith drives his values. He also tells them about his Republican rival Doug Mastriano, who paid a consulting fee to a far-right social media website where a mass shooter went on antisemitic rants,” the Washington Post reports.

“And in an interview, Shapiro said that when he heard Mastriano accuse him of having ‘disdain for people like us’ because Shapiro and his children have attended a ‘privileged, exclusive, elite’ Jewish academy in the Philadelphia suburbs, the Democratic candidate immediately thought of all the students and teachers whose lives he felt his opponent had put ‘at risk’ by singling out their school.”

2022 Campaign PA-Gov

Pennsylvania Senate Race a Dead Heat

October 20, 2022 · 2:27 pm ET · Leave a Comment

A new Insider Advantage poll in Pennsylvania finds John Fetterman (D) and Mehmet Oz (R) in a dead heat for U.S. Senate, 46% to 46% with 5% undecided.

In the governor’s race, Josh Shapiro (D) leads Doug Mastriano (R), 49% to 42% with 6% undecided.

2022 Campaign PA-Gov, PA-Sen

Mastriano Ad Uses Footage from Russian Propaganda

October 19, 2022 · 5:46 pm ET · Leave a Comment

An ad posted by Doug Mastriano’s (R) gubernatorial campaign in Pennsylvania uses stock video footage previously featured in Russian propaganda, Insider reports.

2022 Campaign PA-Gov

Mastriano’s War College Stint Comes Under Fire

October 18, 2022 · 3:32 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“The crowning chapter of Doug Mastriano’s military career — a stint on the faculty of the U.S. Army War College — has flared up in his campaign for Pennsylvania governor,” the New York Times reports.

“Two former professors at the War College publicly declared Mastriano unfit for public office. A photograph surfaced of Mastriano posing in a Confederate uniform with other faculty. And Mastriano’s Ph.D. dissertation has been criticized as deeply flawed, with a former academic adviser saying his doctorate rests ‘on very shaky grounds.'”

Mastriano’s research “focused on a World War I hero, Alvin York, who credited his exploits killing and capturing German soldiers to divine intervention and who inspired the 1941 Gary Cooper movie Sergeant York.”

2022 Campaign PA-Gov

Mastriano’s Attacks on Jewish School Set Off Outcry

October 10, 2022 · 6:14 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“Four years after the massacre at a Pittsburgh synagogue, believed to be the deadliest antisemitic attack in American history, Doug Mastriano, the Republican nominee for governor of Pennsylvania, has rattled a diverse swath of the state’s Jewish community, alarming liberal Jews with his remarks and far-right associations, and giving pause to more conservative ones,” the New York Times reports.

“Some of those voters have recoiled from Mr. Mastriano’s opposition to abortion rights under any circumstance, or from his strident election denialism. But the race between Mr. Mastriano, a state senator, and his Democratic opponent, Attorney General Josh Shapiro — a Jewish day school alum who features challah in his advertising and routinely borrows from Pirkei Avot, a collection of Jewish ethics — has also centered to an extraordinary degree on Mr. Shapiro’s religion.”

2022 Campaign PA-Gov

Josh Shapiro Headed for Big Win in Pennsylvania

October 6, 2022 · 11:08 am ET · Leave a Comment

A new Monmouth poll in Pennsylvania finds 54% of voters say they will either definitely (40%) or probably (14%) vote for Josh Shapiro for governor, while 38% will definitely (24%) or probably (14%) vote for Doug Mastriano.

Said pollster Patrick Murray: “Shapiro’s support has solidified with Democrats over the past few weeks, but it’s unlikely that Republicans who are unsure about Mastriano will actually switch sides. The bigger question may be whether they will vote at all.”

2022 Campaign PA-Gov

Mastriano Turns to ‘Fasting and Prayer’ in Final Stretch

September 28, 2022 · 2:20 pm ET · Leave a Comment

As his Pennsylvania gubernatorial campaign struggles to raise money and turn out supporters, Doug Mastriano (R) is planning “40 days of fasting and prayer,” the Philadelphia Inquirer reports.

“While it is unclear who Mastriano expects to start fasting on Thursday, the recent entreaties seem to indicate that his campaign, which epitomizes what scholars call Christian nationalist ideology, has fallen on hard times.”

“The messaging has grown increasingly erratic, sometimes arguably bordering on nonsensical. One of Mastriano’s main attack strategies these days is emphasizing that he is taller than Shapiro.”

2022 Campaign PA-Gov

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Taegan Goddard

Taegan Goddard

Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire -- which for more than two decades has been one of the nation's most influential political news sites.

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