Harry Enten: “This year, we may have a new election night record for earliest announcement of the winners in an off-year following a presidential election… Christie is up by nearly 30 points in New Jersey, De Blasio is ahead by over 40 points in New York City and McAuliffe is leading by about 8 points in Virginia.”

“I went back over the past 40 years of election results to get an idea of how rare the snoozefest of 2013 is for the after-presidential-off-year election troika… Only 1977, 1985, and 2013 were near or above double digits in their closest race.”

“What separates 1985 and 2013 from 1977 is the fact that two of the races were or are going to be landslides. Even though none of the 1977 races were nail biters, they were all modestly competitive. None had margins of greater than 14pt. 1985 had – and 2013 looks to ultimately have – two races in which the winning candidate won by more than 25pt.”

A new Hampton University poll in Virginia shows Terry McAuliffe (D) leading Ken Cuccinelli (R) in the race for governor by six points, 42% to 36%, with Robert Sarvis (L) at 12%.

While each Virginia poll may fluctuate, it’s been months since Cuccinelli led in one of them.

Anthony Weiner told GQ that the New York Times Magazine writer who did a profile of him before launching his political comeback bid wasn’t “tough enough” on him.

Said Weiner: “The problem was that the story was completely different from what we thought would be written. I thought there’d be thousands of questions about the sexting. But there wasn’t a lot of conversation about that. We had a guy who wasn’t tough enough. We needed someone to just tear away at me. And not someone who would do something sympathetic.”

A new Quinnipiac poll in New York City finds Bill de Blasio (D) continuing to crush Joseph Lhota (R) in the mayoral race, 65% to 26%.

A new Rasmussen survey in Virginia finds Terry McAuliffe (D) leading Ken Cuccinelli (R) by seven points in the race for governor, 43% to 36%, with Libertarian Robert Sarvis at 12%.

A Rasmussen survey last week had McAuliffe ahead by 17 points.

“Republicans need to ask what’s wrong with our business model here. This should have been a slam dunk. Virginia almost always votes against the president’s party … All we needed was a mammal up there.”

— Former Rep. Tom Davis (R-VA), quoted by National Journal, on the Virginia governor’s race.

A new Quinnipiac poll in Virginia shows Terry McAuliffe (D) with just a four point lead over Ken Cuccinelli (R), 45% to 41%, with Libertarian Robert Sarvis at 9%.

Said pollster Peter Brown: “Cuccinelli is nipping at McAuliffe’s heels as the race to be Virginia’s next governor enters the final week of the campaign. It goes without saying that turnout is the key to this race and the harshly negative tone of the campaign is the kind that often turns off voters.”

Meanwhile, a new Newsmax/Zogby poll finds McAuliffe ahead 36% to 30%, with Sarvis at 9%.

New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (R) “declined to commit to serving another full term as governor if he is reelected next week,” the Washington Post reports.

Said Christie: “I’m committed to being the best governor New Jersey can have for as long as I can possibly do it.. But, you know, George, neither one of us have a crystal ball and know what’s going to happen in the future.”

A new Washington Post-Abt SRBI poll in Virginia finds Terry McAuliffe (D) leads Ken Cuccinelli (R) by 12 points, 51% to 39% among likely voters in next Tuesday’s election. Libertarian Robert Sarvis is at 8%.

Key findings: “The margin between the two candidates is driven by a huge gender gap. Among men, the two candidates are running even, with Cuccinelli at 45 percent and McAuliffe at 44 percent. But among women, Cuccinelli trails by 24 points — 58 percent to 34 percent.”

Mark Murray: “The reason why Virginia matters is that, politically, no other state better reflects the center of American politics than the Old Dominion.”

“In the last two presidential contests, the state’s popular vote (Obama 53%-46% in ’08; Obama 51%-47% in ’12) exactly matched the national popular vote… And Virginia, demographically, looks like the country at large — whites near 70% of the population, African Americans in the double digits, Latinos at 8%, Asian Americans at 6%. It also has a fairly even mixture of urban, suburban, and rural areas.”

First Read: “It’s now eight days until Election Day 2013, and the featured Virginia and gubernatorial contests each pose a central question. In Virginia, the question is no longer will Democratic Terry McAuliffe win; it’s whether there will be a Democratic sweep (governor, lieutenant governor, and attorney general). And in New Jersey, the question isn’t whether Gov. Chris Christie (R) will win re-election; it’s how big his margin will be and if his all-but-certain victory will allow him to run up impressive results among women, minorities, and younger voters in the exit polls. But there’s an even bigger story in next week’s Virginia and New Jersey gubernatorial races: You’re seeing the two different halves of the Republican Party on full display.”

Bill de Blasio (D) “is poised to win the race for mayor of New York City by a historically large margin, powered by optimism that he will bring about change and by overwhelming voter disapproval of the Republican Party,” the New York Times reports.

A new New York Times/Siena poll finds de Blasio leading Joseph Lhota (R) by 45 points among likely voters, 68% to 23%.

“That lead, which has remained remarkably consistent in multiple polls over the last six weeks, suggests that Mr. de Blasio could win the most sweeping victory in a mayor’s race since 1985, when Edward I. Koch was re-elected to a third term with a crushing 68-point margin of victory over his opponents.”

New York City mayoral candidates Bill de Blasio (D) and Joseph Lhota (R) both believe that their third and final debate Tuesday, which falls on the anniversary of when Hurricane Sandy hit New York, should be postponed, NY1 reports.

New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (R) has a new campaign ad featuring former NBA star Shaquille O’Neal.

Says O’Neal: “I don’t endorse many politicians. But Chris Christie is different.”

[Read more…]

Terry McAuliffe (D) has been outspending Ken Cuccinelli (R) by 3-to-1 in the
last three weeks of the Virginia gubernatorial race, maintaining a $1 million a week pace while
Cuccinelli’s spending has been declining, First Read reports.

New York City mayoral candidate Joe Lhota (R) warned yet again that Bill de Blasio (D) would usher in a new crime wave if he’s elected, Politicker reports.

When asked if he would fear for his personal safety were de Blasio to win the race, Lhota was unequivocal: “Absolutely.”

A new Boston Globe poll finds John Connolly holds an 8 point lead over Martin Walsh in the race for Boston mayor, 44% to 36%.

Key takeaway: “The poll found that most voters are only now focusing on the campaign to succeed Mayor Thomas M. Menino and that both candidates are held in high regard, suggesting fortunes could shift swiftly with less than two weeks before the election.”

A new WBUR poll in Boston finds John Connolly barely leading Martin Walsh by two points, 41% to 39%.