Harry Enten: “There are many reasons to think that election night 2013 may not be the most exciting of affairs. Even the historic election of the first white mayor in Detroit in 40 years is almost a foregone conclusion, with Democrat Mike Duggan up by 25 points. Yet there are also a few reasons that you should pay attention. These three races may not be close, but all can offer lessons.”

Polls close at 7 pm in Virginia, 8 pm in New Jersey and 9 pm in New York City.

“I’m working on my acceptance speech right now.”

— New York City mayoral candidate Joe Lhota (R) when asked by Politicker if he’s dismayed by being down over 40 points in the public polls.

Patricia Murphy: “If Gov. Chris Christie wins reelection Tuesday by even a fraction of the margin predicted by New Jersey pollsters, he’ll owe his easy victory to one group in particular–national Democrats, who all but ignored his race against Democratic state Sen. Barbara Buono.”

“The calculation was two-fold, they said. First, the money required just to land a punch on Christie in the pricey New York and Philadelphia media markets could fund an entire campaign somewhere or sometime else when a Democrat had a chance of winning… Second, Democrats firmly believe that no matter how strong Christie looks on Election Day 2013 in New Jersey, the Republican nominating gauntlet will eat his 2016 presidential candidacy alive before he ever gets a chance to face off against a Democrat in a general election.”

Detroit News:
“Metro Detroiters began heading to the polls Tuesday to vote for mayors
and council members in some suburbs and Detroit, whose historic
election includes the first council members selected by district in
nearly a century. In the highest-profile race, former Detroit Medical
Center CEO Mike Duggan faces Wayne County Sheriff Benny Napoleon to see
who replaces Mayor Dave Bing and works with state-appointed Emergency
Manager Kevyn Orr.”

NBC News: “New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie is poised to win a second term, a rare feat for a Republican running in deep-blue New Jersey. In Virginia, an emerging swing state, longtime Democratic money-man Terry McAuliffe has built a steady lead over his deeply conservative opponent, GOP Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli.”

“The two races have highlighted the GOP’s struggle to reconcile its establishment wing with its insurgent conservative class. A victory for McAuliffe would also add credibility to Democrats’ efforts to claim Virginia – once an unambiguous GOP foothold – as a toss-up state, if not Democratic-leaning.”

Rick Klein: “The result is that the two ‘off-year’ races that have long been viewed
as national harbingers are instead offering lessons primarily to a
Republican Party that’s still engaged in a spirited fight for its own
identity.”

The Fix: How to watch the exit polls in Virginia.

Joshua Spivak counts 15 officials facing recall elections today.

“The reasons for the recall span the spectrum. By far the most notable ones are in the bankrupt city of San Bernardino, where 3 officials are going before the voters — there were attempts against 10 officials in all. Other notable recalls are in Hesperia (firing of a high school coach) and Cibolo (Walmart).”

“It’s the first major race between the forces and faces of the new
Republican tea party — a tea party whose social recidivism is only
outgunned by its hostility to science and technology and innovation and
scholarship.”

— Vice President Joe Biden, quoted by Politico, campaigning in Virginia for Terry McAuliffe.

Roll Call: “With one day until the special-election runoff in Alabama’s 1st District, conservative groups are making a final push to affect the GOP contest that has become a national bellwether for Republicans.”

“Business groups are trying to boost former state Sen. Bradley Byrne over Dean Young, a tea-party-backed businessman who’s already made some controversial comments. Over the weekend, Ending Spending Inc., a PAC launched in 2010 by TD Ameritrade founder Joe Ricketts, spent $102,000 in ads to promote Byrne, according to reports filed with the Federal Election Commission.”

Politico: “Whatever dim hope Cuccinelli has of an upset rests on abysmal turnout among Democrats. For months polls have shown McAuliffe, a longtime Democratic Party fixer and businessman, leading Cuccinelli in the high single digits. So McAuliffe has had a series of high-profile surrogates vouch for him the past few weeks – President Barack Obama on Sunday, Bill and Hillary Clinton before that – to remind party that they need to finish the job.”

First Read: “If the polls are correct in Virginia… then we’re likely going to re-learn an important point: The sign of a healthy political party is that you can appeal to the middle without alienating the base. That is precisely what McAuliffe has done in his campaign, as he’s reached out to the state’s business middle while mobilizing the party’s liberals.”

“By contrast, Republicans appear to have two problems right now. Either they are appealing to the base, which is alienating the middle (see Virginia). Or when they appeal to the middle, they are alienating the base (see Chris Christie in New Jersey)… To win national elections, you have to be able to appeal to the middle without alienating your base, as well as appeal to the base without alienating the middle. That’s not happening inside the GOP right now.”

A new Public Policy Polling survey in Virginia finds Terry McAuliffe (D) comfortably ahead of Ken Cuccinelli (R) in the race for governor, 50% to 43%, with Libertarian Robert Sarvis at 4%.

In the Lt. Governor’s race Ralph Northam is headed for a blowout win over E.W. Jackson, 52% to 39%. The intrigue will be in the Attorney General contest where Mark Herring is only up 47% to 45%.

A new Quinnipiac poll finds McAuliffe leading by six points, 46% to 40%, with Sarvis at 8%.

A new Monmouth poll in New Jersey finds Gov. Chris Christie with a 20 point lead over Barbara Buono (D) in the race for governor, 57% to 37%.

A new Fairleigh Dickinson poll finds Christie with a 19 point lead, 59% to 40%.

A new Rutgers Eagleton
poll gives Christie a 36 point lead, 66% to 30%.

A new Quinnipiac poll shows Christie with a 28 point lead, 61% to 33%.

Politico: “Well before the last votes are cast in the state’s off-year governor’s race, GOP leaders are already engaged in a spirited debate over why, exactly, a fight against a Democrat as flawed as Terry McAuliffe has turned into such a painful slog of a campaign. Even Republicans who haven’t yet counted out their nominee, state Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli, view the governor’s race as a profile in frustration for the GOP – an election that should have leaned toward the Republicans, but where Democrats have held a persistent lead in polling, money and tactical prowess.”

“The GOP’s internal discussion about the race mirrors much of the broader national tug of war within the conservative coalition, between officials and strategists who want the party to trim back some of its most confrontational tactics and hard-edged rhetoric, and activists bent on drawing the starkest possible lines of contrast with the Democratic party of President Barack Obama.”

New York Times: “After many years as Mr. Clinton’s chief fund-raiser and then as the chairman of the Democratic National Committee, Mr. McAuliffe has amassed one of the largest favor banks in American politics. And now as he reaches for elected office himself, Democrats are returning the favors with endorsements, strategic advice and, of course, an avalanche of money.”

“But Mr. McAuliffe also seems to have learned from his first run for governor of Virginia in 2009, when he was tagged as a carpetbagger and lost in the Democratic primary. In the years since, he has applied his famously effective scratch-my-back skills to the state’s Democratic hierarchy, which rewarded him by preventing a primary challenge this year.”

Washington Post: “Some of the biggest names in his party sat out the race or even switched sides. The governor he depended on to rally the troops disappeared into a fog of scandal. Many of the money men who had provided oomph in past elections vanished.”

“Given the obstacles Virginia Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli II has faced this year — some beyond his control, some of his own making — the surprise in Tuesday’s vote for governor may be that the Republican candidate has kept the race as close as he has.”

A new Zogby/Newsmax poll finds Terry McAuliffe leading Cuccinelli by seven points, 43% to 36%, with Libertarian Robert Sarvis at 9%.

“No. Next question.”

— Bill de Blasio (D), when by the New York Times whether he would consider rival Joe Lhota (R) for a job in his administration.

A new Christopher Newport University Poll in Virginia finds Terry McAuliffe (D) leading Ken Cuccinelli in the race for governor by seven points, 45% to 38%, with Libertarian Robert Sarvis at 10%.

A new Emerson College survey finds McAuliffe ahead by just two points, 42% to 40%, with Sarvis at 13%.

Harry Enten: “This year, we may have a new election night record for earliest announcement of the winners in an off-year following a presidential election… Christie is up by nearly 30 points in New Jersey, De Blasio is ahead by over 40 points in New York City and McAuliffe is leading by about 8 points in Virginia.”

“I went back over the past 40 years of election results to get an idea of how rare the snoozefest of 2013 is for the after-presidential-off-year election troika… Only 1977, 1985, and 2013 were near or above double digits in their closest race.”

“What separates 1985 and 2013 from 1977 is the fact that two of the races were or are going to be landslides. Even though none of the 1977 races were nail biters, they were all modestly competitive. None had margins of greater than 14pt. 1985 had – and 2013 looks to ultimately have – two races in which the winning candidate won by more than 25pt.”