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Just dropped · Trial Balloon · Ep. 192

November Surprises

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Trial Balloon · Ep. 192: November Surprises

Did Christie Allies Close Bridge for Political Retribution?

December 10, 2013 · 8:10 am ET · Leave a Comment

“For as long as anyone can remember the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey has worked like this: two governors divide up the board and staff appointments, and the contracts that flow from that. No one blows the whistle on anyone else, because that might jeopardize one’s own spoils,” WNYC reports.

That changed abruptly this week when one board member used his subpoena power “to summon officials to explain why three lanes onto the George Washington Bridge had been abruptly closed in September, causing a week’s worth of traffic…”

“Democrats were swift to raise the possibility the lane closures had been made as political retribution against the Mayor of Fort Lee, a Democrat, who, unlike some Democrats, had not endorsed Christie for reelection. There was a lot of whispering during Christie’s re-election campaign that he had a ‘naughty and nice list’ but no one had been able to prove it. Now, there was talk, there might be some evidence.”

Meanwhile, a new Monmouth/Asbury Park Press poll shows Christie with a 65% approval rating.

2013 Campaign

Best and Worst of Politics in 2013

December 10, 2013 · 8:04 am ET · Leave a Comment

Stu Rothenberg reviews the year in politics.

“It’s been a weird year, but face it: Weird is the new normal in politics.”

2013 Campaign

Obenshain May Ask Virginia Legislature to Intervene

December 9, 2013 · 7:26 pm ET · Leave a Comment

The lawyer representing Mark Obenshain (R) in the pending statewide recount in the Virginia attorney general race on “for the first time openly raised the issue of contesting the election in the General Assembly if the tally does not sway the result in the Republican’s favor,” the Richmond Times Dispatch reports.

“If he loses the recount, Obenshain could ask a joint session of the General Assembly — which is dominated by Republicans — to reverse the results. Under state law, grounds for a contest include objections to ‘the conduct or results of the election accompanied by specific allegations which, if proven true, would have a probable impact on the outcome of the election.'”

2013 Campaign

The Democrats’ 2013 Drop Off Problem

December 4, 2013 · 3:34 pm ET · Leave a Comment

Sean Trende: “Probably the most jarring election story of 2013 was the successful recall of two Democratic state senators in Colorado. Both represented districts that had voted for President Obama by wide margins: In the recall, Angela Morse ran 15 points behind the president, while John Morse (pictured) ran 12 points behind him.”

“These were extreme cases: low-turnout recall elections where the pro-recall forces were unusually energized by the gun issue. But they highlight what is probably the most troubling indicator for Democrats right now as we inch toward the midterm-election season: The drop-off in Democratic performance in elections this year — Democrats have been running three to five points behind Obama’s 2012 showing with surprising consistency.”

2013 Campaign

Obenshain Seeks Recount in Virginia

November 26, 2013 · 4:58 pm ET · Leave a Comment

Mark Obenshain (R) “says he’s seeking a recount in the historically close race for Virginia attorney general,” the AP reports.

“A mere 165 votes separate Obenshain and Mark Herring (D), who has already declared himself the victor in the race. Both men have announced transition teams.”

2013 Campaign

The Bill de Blasio Primer

November 25, 2013 · 11:31 am ET · Leave a Comment

The Week has everything you need to know about New York City’s next mayor.

2013 Campaign

San Diego Picks Mayoral Candidates

November 20, 2013 · 7:23 am ET · Leave a Comment

San Diego Union Tribune:
“Republican City Councilman Kevin Faulconer easily won a spot Tuesday
in the runoff to be San Diego’s next mayor while Councilman David
Alvarez appeared likely to join him as the Democratic challenger.”

2013 Campaign

San Diego Votes Today

November 19, 2013 · 9:33 am ET · Leave a Comment

“San Diegans will go to the polls Tuesday for the special mayoral
election, choosing from 11 candidates to replace Bob Filner, who
resigned in August following a sexual harassment scandal,” the San Diego Union Tribune reports.

“Because it’s
unlikely any one candidate will get more than 50 percent of the vote, a
runoff between the top-two finishers is expected to be scheduled for
sometime in February.”

Los Angeles Times: “With some policy
differences at the margins, the four top candidates have all promised to
improve neighborhood services, hire more police officers and streamline
city government to help private industry create jobs.”

2013 Campaign

Surprise Win in Louisiana Special Election

November 16, 2013 · 11:03 pm ET · Leave a Comment

Vance McAllister (R) won a special election in Louisiana’s 5th District, “stunning the heir apparent in the contest to become the next member of Congress,” Roll Call reports.

McAllister, a self-funding newcomer, defeated Neil Riser (R) who “had long been considered a shoo-in to win the special election to replace Rep. Rodney Alexander, who resigned over the summer to take a post in Gov. Bobby Jindal’s administration.”

2013 Campaign

Christie Loses Kean

November 14, 2013 · 10:00 am ET · Leave a Comment

Charles Stile: “Former Gov. Thomas H. Kean has taken great pride in watching Chris Christie, his onetime 14-year-old campaign volunteer, rise to become what Republicans like Kean are now calling the party’s best hope of reclaiming the White House.”

“But this week, the typical Kean praise for his protégé was gone. In its place was a sharp critique of Christie, tinged with bitterness.”

2013 Campaign

Paul Says Christie Won Because of Federal Money

November 14, 2013 · 8:20 am ET · Leave a Comment

Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) said New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (R) was re-elected because he got federal relief funds after Hurricane Sandy, CBS Philadelphia reports.

Said Paul: “Well, his victory was, in large form, based on that he got a lot of federal money for his state. The problem is…unlimited spending is sort of – you could call it moderate, or even Liberal, to think that there’s an unlimited amount of money, even for good causes.”

He added: “If you’re a conservative Republican, the federal government will be involved in certain things, but when you spend money, particularly when you’re at trillion dollars in the hole, it shouldn’t be just this, ‘gimme, gimme, gimme all my money’ without any considerations or strings. It should be, ‘Yes, this is why it’s necessary, but this is also why I’ll cut spending somewhere else.'”

2013 Campaign

Shutdown was Key Factor in Virginia Race

November 13, 2013 · 9:50 am ET · Leave a Comment

USA Today:
“Top campaign aides to Virginia Gov.-elect Terry McAuliffe and his GOP
opponent, Ken Cuccinelli, agreed Wednesday on two things about the
just-concluded bitter campaign: that the federal government shutdown was
a critical factor in Cuccinelli’s defeat, and that political
fact-checking has become so prevalent it is in danger of become
irrelevant.”

2013 Campaign

McAuliffe Kept Digital Edge for Democrats

November 12, 2013 · 1:30 pm ET · Leave a Comment

Politico:
“A year after the 2012 election in which the Obama campaign dominated
on data and Republicans wondered how they could catch up, both parties
saw 2013 as not only a testing ground for new digital strategies but
also a test of how much ground the GOP has made up. Democratic
Gov.-elect Terry McAuliffe’s campaign, building on the foundations of
Obama’s 2012 data operation, was able to adapt many of Obama’s data
strategies to a state-level race.”

2013 Campaign

Black Vote Boosted McAuliffe

November 12, 2013 · 11:57 am ET · Leave a Comment

Domenico Montanaro responds to Stu Rothenberg’s analysis of why Ken Cuccinelli (R) lost the Virginia governor’s race last week.

“Could Cuccinelli conceivably have won by winning every white guy and his wife? Sure. And could it mean that Republicans can do well in the midterms by winning just ‘white guys and their wives’ since minorities and young voters traditionally turn out at lower rates in those elections? Maybe. But, as Virginia’s and the nation’s demography continue to change, is that really a winning national strategy for Republicans? It wasn’t for Romney. The fact that black voters showed up the way they did was an important factor in McAuliffe’s win that shouldn’t be dismissed.”

2013 Campaign

Why Cuccinelli Lost

November 12, 2013 · 8:22 am ET · Leave a Comment

Stuart Rothenberg: “Though you hear a lot about the changing face of the electorate, both nationally and in Virginia, that’s not why Cuccinelli lost last week.”

“The Virginia election in 2013 was one where the Republican nominee would have won merely by attracting the votes of the same people who voted for Mitt Romney. The party’s candidate for governor did not need to improve his showing among young voters, African-Americans, Hispanics or unmarried women. He just needed to get white guys and their wives.”

“That conclusion, which is based on an evaluation of all of the data, not on merely cherry-picking one or two variables, ought to be little comfort for Democratic strategists worrying about the makeup of the midterm electorate.”

2013 Campaign

Democrat Takes Lead in Virginia Attorney General’s Race

November 12, 2013 · 5:37 am ET · Leave a Comment

Mark Herring (D) took a small lead over Mark Obenshain (R) in the extraordinarily tight Virginia attorney general race, after he picked up more than 100 previously uncounted votes in Richmond, the Washington Post reports.

Herring had started the day trailing Obenshain by a mere 17 votes out of 2.2 million cast. But as jurisdictions across the state continued to scrub their vote counts, the State Board of Elections showed Herring with a 117-vote lead late Monday.

2013 Campaign

Christie Paid $46K to Romney Advisers

November 11, 2013 · 3:41 pm ET · Leave a Comment

New Jersey Chris Christie (R) “criticized strategists for Mitt Romney’s 2012 presidential campaign over the weekend saying no one should ‘give a darn‘ about their political advice,” but Yahoo News notes the New Jersey governor “isn’t nearly as dismissive of their input as he lets on.”

“During his re-election campaign this year, Christie hired a political consultancy firm run by Romney’s former top strategists and paid more than $46,000 for their services.”

2013 Campaign

What Happens When the Mayor Can’t Buy Everyone Off?

November 11, 2013 · 9:58 am ET · Leave a Comment

Ben Smith: “One of Mike Bloomberg’s signal accomplishments in New York City was reversing the flow of corruption. In the old days, and in every other city in the world most days, favor-seekers bribe politicians — with cash in envelopes, with legal contributions, or with political support. In Mike Bloomberg’s New York, the mayor bribed you, buying the silence or cooperation of individuals, cultural organizations, and social service groups with hundreds in millions of dollars spent on small personal favors — a legal payment here, a medical procedure there — and charitable contributions.”

“As a liberal Democrat, Bill de Blasio’s biggest challenge when he takes power in January will not be keeping crime down or funding an ambitious expansion of early education. It will be dealing with the explosion of Bloomberg’s machine after the grease of money is gone and the gears start sticking.”

2013 Campaign

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Taegan Goddard

Taegan Goddard

Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire -- which for more than two decades has been one of the nation's most influential political news sites.

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