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Democrats Lose Special Election Magic

March 20, 2019 at 10:32 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Philip Bump: “You may recall that, as the 2018 midterms approached, the results of special election contests were seen as a measure of Democratic enthusiasm. In contest after contest, Democrats were picking up seats and beating Clinton’s 2016 margins by double-digits.”

“Since last November, though, the picture has been different. From November 2016 through March 2017, Democrats overperformed by an average of 9 points compared to 2016 in nine special elections. Since the midterms, Republicans have overperformed by an average of 1 point — and have picked up four seats that were held by Democrats.”

Gun-Toting Candidate Vows He’s Got Trump’s Back

March 19, 2019 at 6:22 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Raleigh News and Observer: “One of 17 candidates vying for the Republican nomination in North Carolina’s 3rd Congressional District special election will begin airing television ads in the Greenville market Tuesday.”

“In the ad, Eric Rouse (R) is seen skeet shooting — hitting clays with Democratic priorities like the Green New Deal written on them in the 30-second ad. It closes with Rouse cocking a gun and vowing to have President Trump’s back if elected.”

Republicans Line Up for North Carolina Race

March 18, 2019 at 6:10 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Politico: “North Carolina Republicans are suffering from a lack of credibility, a crowded field and a cash deficit as they head into the primary for the 9th Congressional District redo election.”

“After last week’s filing deadline, 10 Republicans have declared their candidacy for the suburban Charlotte House seat, which has been vacant since January due to allegations of election fraud. A political operative hired by Republican candidate Mark Harris’ 2018 campaign oversaw the illegal collection and manipulation of absentee ballots, subsequently spurring the state election board to order a rerun last month.”

Mayor Ousted, Then Chosen to Replace Himself

March 13, 2019 at 5:25 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Fall River, Massachusetts Mayor Jasiel Correia (D) “delivered a stunning victory Tuesday night as voters ousted him from office in a recall election and then ushered him back into power by picking him to be the city’s next chief executive,” the Boston Globe reports.

“Correia held onto his job under a quirk in the city charter which allowed him to run for reelection on the same ballot that sought to recall him.”

Chicago Poised to Elect African-American Female Mayor

February 27, 2019 at 6:47 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Chicago will elect its first African-American female mayor after former federal prosecutor Lori Lightfoot and Cook County Board President Toni Preckwinkle won enough votes Tuesday amid a record field of 14 candidates to move on to an April runoff election,” the Chicago Tribune reports.

“It’s only the second time Chicago has had a runoff campaign for mayor.”

Mark Harris Won’t Run Again In North Carolina

February 26, 2019 at 2:47 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Citing his health, Mark Harris (R) said that he won’t run in a new election for North Carolina’s 9th congressional district, the Charlotte Observer reports.

Washington Post: “Harris was ahead by 905 votes in North Carolina’s 9th District after the midterm election last year, but evidence emerged that a Harris campaign operative had improperly collected absentee ballots. State election officials last week voted unanimously to throw out the November results of the race between Harris and Dan McCready (D).”

Chicago Voters Pick a New Mayor

February 26, 2019 at 11:21 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

USA Today: “Under Chicago’s election rules, if no candidate wins more than 50 percent of the vote, the top two vote-getters will face off in an April 2 runoff.”

“No candidate is polling at more than 14 percent, according to a survey published Sunday by 270 Strategies. Six candidates were within the poll’s margin of error of 3.7 percent of finishing in the top two.”

“If the race is as close as polling suggests, it could take the Chicago Board of Election some time to sort out winners and losers.”

Democrats Target Trump’s Personal Finances

February 25, 2019 at 6:38 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Politico: “With special counsel Robert Mueller expected to wind up his work soon, Democrats are launching an investigation to discover why Deutsche Bank was willing to lend the Trump Organization money when other banks wouldn’t and whether Russia was involved.”

“The German bank, which has been under scrutiny for its role in Russian money laundering, lent Trump hundreds of millions of dollars over the years for his property development ventures.”

Bonus Quote of the Day

February 24, 2019 at 11:35 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“I think 2019 will be the most vitriolic year in American politics since before the Civil War. And I include Vietnam in that. I think we’re in for a very nasty 2019.”

— Stephen Bannon, in an interview with CBS News.

Will Chicago Turn Back to the Daleys?

February 24, 2019 at 10:47 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“The Daleys collectively ruled Chicago for a total of four decades, dating back to the 1950s. Now, after a brief interregnum, the family reign might be extended. Bill Daley, the former chief of staff to President Barack Obama, is emerging as a late contender in the crowded Feb. 26 mayoral race, a contest featuring 14 people vying to succeed two-term Mayor Rahm Emanuel,” Politico reports.

“With the race in the nation’s third-largest city just two days away, Daley — who hopes to advance the legacy left by his father, the original ‘Boss,’ Richard J. Daley, and his brother, Richard M. Daley — has shot toward the front of the pack. After first barely registering in the polls, he now stands a strong chance of being one of the top two finishers to advance to a runoff election.”

Chicago Tribune: “The lack of electoral clarity makes it likely no candidate will receive more than 50 percent of the vote Tuesday, leaving the top two finishers to face off in an April 2 runoff election. Further complicating the picture are signs that Chicagoans haven’t been all that interested so far in the historically competitive race — at least when it comes to early voting.”

Democrats Try to Make Gains with Governors

February 22, 2019 at 2:14 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Though the national political focus has largely turned to the 2020 presidential campaign, three Southern states will see hard-fought governors’ races this year, with Democrats trying to show they can compete in Donald Trump territory,” the Associated Press reports.

“Democrats hope to unseat Kentucky’s Republican Gov. Matt Bevin and win an open governorship in Mississippi. In Louisiana, they’re working to re-elect John Bel Edwards, the lone Democratic governor in the Deep South.”

Bevin Dismisses His Bad Poll Numbers

February 22, 2019 at 11:29 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Kentucky Gov. Matt Bevin (R) “dismissed polling that shows him struggling with voters as he runs for a second term — and said he welcomes having President Trump and vice president Mike Pence come to Kentucky to campaign for him,” McClatchy reports.

Said Bevin: “There has never been a poll ever taken… done by anyone, including people who want to be supportive, that has ever found me above water or likely to win anything, ever. I have never led in any poll or been popular in any survey that has ever been done.”

North Carolina Seat Stays a Toss Up

February 21, 2019 at 5:55 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

After the North Carolina state board of elections unanimously ordered a new election in the state’s 9th congressional district, the Cook Political Report says the seat remains a Toss Up.

“Meanwhile, Republicans are likely headed for a crowded primary, with or without Mark Harris. And things could get even worse for Republicans: under state law, a runoff will be held if no candidate gets 30 percent of the primary vote, further threatening to drain the party’s time and resources (the legislature lowered the threshold from 40 percent to 30 percent back in fall 2017, marginally reducing the chances this would occur).”

Race for Chicago Mayor Is a Toss Up

February 15, 2019 at 8:42 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

With just 12 days until the election, a new NBC Chicago/Telemundo poll finds no clear leader in Chicago’s race for mayor.

Toni Preckwinkle barely leads the 14-person pack with 14%, followed by Bill Daley at 13%, Susana Mendoza at 12%, Lori Lightfoot at 10%, Gery Chico at 9% and Amara Enyia at 7%.

Nearly one in five voters are still undecided.

Close Race for Mississippi Governor

February 6, 2019 at 8:59 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A new Mason-Dixon poll in Mississippi finds Jim Hood (D) holds a slim lead over Tate Reeves (R), 44% to 42%, in what currently appears to be the most likely gubernatorial general election match-up.

“There is speculation that retired state Supreme Court Justice Bill Waller, Jr. is considering a run for governor, possibly as an independent candidate. While Waller is a Republican, his father was elected to the governor’s office as a Democrat. He could generate cross-party appeal.”

Three Governor’s Races This Year

February 2, 2019 at 2:35 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

In case you missed it, Political Wire members now have access to the Inside Elections newsletter, which comes out twice a month.

This issue is the first gubernatorial overview of the cycle, including initial ratings and previews of the three states electing a governor this year (Louisiana, Mississippi, and Kentucky) and the eleven states holding a gubernatorial contest next year. This edition also includes a look at how predictive early senate ratings can be, as well as brief updates on more than a dozen other races across the country.

The next issue will be a House Overview, with initial House ratings and early analysis on all the competitive races.

If you’re not yet a member, sign up for an annual or monthly membership for instant access.

Bevin Dumps Lt. Governor as Running Mate

January 28, 2019 at 12:05 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Kentucky Gov. Matt Bevin (R) announced that state Sen. Ralph Alvarado (R) will be his lieutenant governor running mate as he seeks re-election in 2019, putting an end to speculation about his political plans, the Lexington Herald Leader reports.

When asked why he chose not to run again with Lt. Gov. Jenean Hampton (R), Bevin said “because I chose to run with Ralph Alvarado.”

Marino’s Seat Likely to Stay In GOP Hands

January 18, 2019 at 8:50 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

The Cook Political Report says Rep. Tom Marino’s (R-PA) decision to resign likely won’t effect the Republican party’s control of the seat.

“Democrats have pulled off upsets in recent specials, but this district is likely a bridge too far. In March 2018, under the best of circumstances for his party, Democrat Conor Lamb captured a southwestern Pennsylvania district that had voted for Trump by 20 points by just 755 votes. But PA-12 voted for Trump by 36 points. It has a Cook PVI score of R+17 and no current House Democrat represents a seat nearly as Republican.”