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A Sobering Reality Hits Democrats

November 3, 2021 at 10:25 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Dan Balz: “It is always the case that too much can be read into the results of these off-year elections. Maybe it was just the patterns of history in Virginia, which for decades has seen the party that holds the White House lose the governorship. McAuliffe in 2013 was the lone exception. Similarly, New Jersey’s Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy, who defeated Republican Jack Ciattarelli, faced a history of incumbent Democrats struggling to win a second term.”

“But Democrats would be foolhardy to underestimate what happened Tuesday. To lose a state like Virginia, which has been trending Democratic for a decade, and to struggle so much in New Jersey suggests that, unless things change, only the bluest of states or districts are likely to be safe in 2022.”

Filed Under: 2021 Campaign, Democrats

The Democratic Unraveling Began With Schools

November 3, 2021 at 10:12 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Zachary Carter: “Republican Glenn Youngkin’s victory in Tuesday’s Virginia gubernatorial election was about schools. It wasn’t about Donald Trump, or inflation, or defunding the police, or Medicare for All, or President Joe Biden’s infrastructure agenda. It wasn’t really about critical race theory or transgender rights—though those issues shaded the situation a bit by highlighting anxieties surrounding the education system.”

“Fundamentally, the contest was about schools—specifically, how many parents remain frustrated by the way public schools have handled the coronavirus pandemic.”

“Covid-19 has been terrible for everyone, and it has been especially hard on parents. Unpredictable school closures didn’t just screw up parents’ work schedules; they drove millions of parents, including 3 million women, out of the workforce altogether. Remote learning doesn’t work well for most kids and has been accompanied by rising levels of depression and anxiety among students.”

Filed Under: 2021 Campaign, Education

Buffalo Mayor Wins as Write-In Candidate

November 3, 2021 at 10:03 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Byron Brown, considered politically dead by many following his stunning defeat in the June primary for mayor of Buffalo, appears to have resurrected his long career as he claimed victory Tuesday in his bruising write-in campaign against Democratic nominee India Walton,” the Buffalo News reports.

Walton was the only name listed on the ballot but she lost by what looks like a 59% to 41% margin.

Filed Under: 2021 Campaign


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Biden Just Isn’t Very Popular Right Now

November 3, 2021 at 7:54 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Jonathan Bernstein: “You’re going to hear plenty of explanations, but if you actually want to know what happened, it’s pretty straightforward. This is the 11th out of the last 12 times that the president’s party lost the Virginia gubernatorial election — the numbers in New Jersey are similar — and with President Joe Biden currently at 43% approval measured by public opinion polls, the result was pretty much what one would expect.”

“If Biden is at 43% or lower a year from now, the chances are very good that Republicans will win big in the midterms. Of course, the next question is why Biden’s popularity has slumped, but the bulk of that is surely about the latest pandemic wave and a mediocre economic quarter. Sure, other things may have mattered on the margins, both for Biden’s popularity and the Virginia and New Jersey elections, and the margins can be extremely important when it comes to winning and losing. But the big picture isn’t very complicated. Republicans are doing well because there’s an incumbent Democrat president, and he’s not very popular right now.”

Geoffrey Skelley: “One inescapable fact about this election is that it took place in an environment that was favorable to Republicans. There’s no better indicator of that than President Biden’s poor approval rating, which stood at about 43% coming into Election Day in FiveThirtyEight’s presidential approval tracker.”

Filed Under: 2021 Campaign, White House

Youngkin Stayed Close to Trump During Campaign

November 3, 2021 at 7:07 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Washington Post: “Republican candidate Glenn Youngkin and Trump repeatedly spoke by phone over the course of the campaign, according to people familiar with the conversations who were not authorized to speak publicly, allowing the two men to go the length of the contest without saying negative things about each other or clashing on strategy.”

Filed Under: 2021 Campaign

Biden May Have Mattered More Than Trump

November 3, 2021 at 6:56 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Playbook: “According to exit polls, Biden was about as unpopular as Trump in Virginia. But Biden embraced the race as a referendum on his presidency and campaigned in the state while Trump, to his great annoyance, was persuaded to stay away.”

Filed Under: 2021 Campaign

Deja Vu?

November 3, 2021 at 6:52 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Punchbowl News: “This is all reminiscent of 2009, when Republicans swept both states on their way to massive victories in the 2010 midterms. They captured the House that cycle — ending Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s first run atop the chamber — and picked up seven Senate seats. The 2022 Senate map isn’t that good for Republicans, but they’re clearly the heavy favorites to win the House again next year. If the GOP does so, Pelosi would be the first speaker since Republican Joseph Martin to lose the majority twice (1948 and 1954). That’s not a list she wants to be on.”

Playbook: “History strongly suggests that the midterms will deliver the next big blow to the incumbent president. But the more immediate danger for Biden is his precarious legislative agenda.”

Filed Under: 2021 Campaign

New Jersey Governor’s Race Too Close to Call

November 3, 2021 at 6:37 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“In a shocker, the contest, once seen as a shoo-in for Gov. Phil Murphy, remained too close to call Wednesday, with results so far showing the Democratic governor and Republican challenger Jack Ciattarelli less than 1 percentage point apart,” NJ.com reports.

Filed Under: 2021 Campaign

Youngkin Wins Virginia Governor’s Race

November 3, 2021 at 6:35 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Virginia voters chose Republican Glenn Youngkin as their next governor, dramatic reversal for a state that had appeared solidly Democratic in recent years and a significant loss for President Biden and the party’s establishment,” the Washington Post reports.

“Youngkin is now a bright new star for the GOP — a basketball-playing business tycoon who navigated the trickiest path in politics, appealing to moderate voters while still bringing out the most enthusiastic followers of Trump.”

Filed Under: 2021 Campaign

Trump Gloats Over Virginia Results

November 2, 2021 at 10:55 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Former President Donald Trump is gloating over Glenn Youngkin’s (R) likely win in the Virginia governor’s race, The Hill reports.

Said Trump: “It is looking like Terry McAuliffe’s campaign against a certain person named ‘Trump’ has very much helped Glenn Youngkin. All McAuliffe did was talk Trump, Trump, Trump and he lost!” 

He added: “I guess people running for office as Democrats won’t be doing that too much longer. I didn’t even have to go rally for Youngkin, because McAuliffe did it for me. Thank you to the MAGA voters for turning out big!”

Filed Under: 2021 Campaign

The Only Good News for Democrats Tonight

November 2, 2021 at 10:02 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

This piece is only available to Political Wire members.

As of this writing, the gubernatorial races in Virginia and New Jersey have not been formally called yet. But it looks like a double-digit swing to Republicans from the election just a year ago.

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Filed Under: 2021 Campaign, Members

Eric Adams Elected Mayor of New York City

November 2, 2021 at 9:22 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Eric Adams, a former New York City police captain whose attention-grabbing persona and keen focus on racial justice fueled a decades-long career in public life, was elected on Tuesday as the 110th mayor of New York, and the second Black mayor in the city’s history,” the New York Times reports.

Filed Under: 2021 Campaign

New Jersey Election Results

November 2, 2021 at 7:50 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Polls close in the New Jersey gubernatorial race at 8 p.m. ET.

NJ.com: “It’s the first truly competitive governor’s race in 12 years, with most polls showing Phil Murphy with a single-digit lead.”

“Murphy is looking to buck history. No Democratic New Jersey governor has won re-election since Brendan Byrne in 1977.”

Leave your reactions in the comments as the results come in.

Filed Under: 2021 Campaign

Word of the Day

November 2, 2021 at 7:13 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Now trending on the political dictionary: “bellwether.”

Filed Under: 2021 Campaign

Virginia Election Results

November 2, 2021 at 6:50 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Polls close in the Virginia gubernatorial race at 7 p.m. ET.

First Read: “If you’ve followed Virginia elections over the past decade like we have, it’s traditionally been a state that’s counted quickly, that’s had most voters casting ballots on Election Day, and that’s had rural counties reporting first and Dem-heavy Northern Virginia voting last.”

“But we know that more than 1 million Virginians have already voted early. We also expect different counties to report on their early votes vs. day-of votes at different times. And unlike in 2020, Dems believe many of their voters have returned to their pre-pandemic patterns of voting on Election Day, while the GOP has run an aggressive early-vote campaign.”

“So a bit caution: When the returns start coming in, they might not tell the whole story.”

Leave your reactions in the comments as the results come in.

Filed Under: 2021 Campaign

About Those Exit Polls

November 2, 2021 at 5:39 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Preliminary exit polls are floating around but everyone should beware of drawing conclusions from exit polling released while people are still voting.

In other words, they’re not worth much at this point.

After the election, they’ll be weighted to the final result and could tell us something interesting about the electorate.

Filed Under: 2021 Campaign

Curtis Sliwa Tried to Bring His Cat to Vote

November 2, 2021 at 3:30 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Curtis Sliwa (R) brought a special guest with him to vote on Tuesday: Gizmo, one of the 17 cats he lives with in a studio apartment,” the New York Times reports.

“But Gizmo was denied entry to the polling site, on Manhattan’s Upper West Side, and Mr. Sliwa, the Republican nominee for mayor, was irate.”

“More problems soon followed, and Mr. Sliwa openly quarreled with election officials, shouting: ‘Arrest me!’ when they asked him to take off a red jacket with his name on it — an apparent violation of electioneering rules.”

Filed Under: 2021 Campaign

Gingrich Says Democrats Will Try to ‘Steal’ Virginia

November 2, 2021 at 11:31 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Newt Gingrich told Fox News that if the Virginia gubernatorial race comes down to a narrow margin, Democrats will try to “steal it.”

Said Gingrich: “First of all if it’s really tight they’ll steal it, so you can’t afford to have a really tight election. You have to win by a big enough margin that they can’t steal it.” 

Filed Under: 2021 Campaign, Dirty Tricks

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About Political Wire

goddard-bw-snapshotTaegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.

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