GOP pollster and strategist Frank Luntz predicted on CNBC that Glenn Youngkin (R) is likely to defeat Terry McAuliffe (D) in Virginia’s close gubernatorial race, setting up a shaky midterm season for President Biden and Democrats next year.
Said Luntz: “There’s about an 80% chance that the Republican nominee beats Terry McAuliffe.”
Youngkin has a one percentage point lead in the final FiveThirtyEight polling average.
In addition to the gubernatorial races in Virginia and New Jersey, there are dozens of mayoral races, two special elections for House seats in Ohio and a special House primary in Florida.
Use the comments to discuss reports on these races.
“Win or lose in today’s Virginia governor’s race, Glenn Youngkin has created a new template for Republican candidates running in competitive races in the Trump era,” Axios reports.
“Republicans, with swing states set to dictate Senate control in 2022, are scrambling to strike a balance — when Full Trump is too hot in swing states like Virginia, but Never Trump is too cold for the former president’s rabid fans.”
Hugh Hewitt: “If Youngkin wins, every Republican in the country will study his playbook.”
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NBC News: “A win Tuesday by Youngkin or anyone else on the GOP ticket — or even a close loss — would reset the electoral calculus. If Democrats are struggling here, what does that mean for other Southern states like Georgia and North Carolina, where the party has made gains by copying the Virginia playbook and where Democrats hope to defend or pick up Senate seats in 2022?”
“Virginia was barely contested in the last presidential election, but a Youngkin victory might put it back in play, squeezing Democrats by making them play defense with working-class white voters in both the upper Midwest and in more diverse Sun Belt states where the party had been making gains lately.”
Terry McAuliffe (D) told CNN that “fatigue and exhaustion from Trump” has clearly been an issue for Democrats in the Virginia governor’s race.
He added he does wish “from a political perspective” that Trump still had access to his Twitter account.
“Early voting hit a record high in Virginia’s dead heat governor’s race between former Democratic Gov. Terry McAuliffe and Republican Glenn Youngkin,” CNBC reports.
“At least 1,137,656 voters submitted early ballots… That makes up roughly one fifth of the state’s 5.9 million electorate.”
Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball just changed its rating for Virginia’s race for governor from Leans Democrat to Leans Republican.
Former President Donald Trump cast doubt on Virginia’s election system — a state he lost by 10 points in the 2020 election — while also urging people to vote for Glenn Youngkin (R) for governor, the Washington Examiner reports.
Said Trump: “I am not a believer in the integrity of Virginia’s elections, lots of bad things went on, and are going on. The way you beat it is to flood the system and get out and vote.”
Trump also hypothesized the news media and “perverts” are trying to “convince people that we do not like each other” so that the former president’s base won’t show up to vote for Youngkin.
A new Insider Advantage poll in Virginia shows Glenn Youngkin (R) leading Terry McAuliffe (D) in the race for governor, 47% to 45%, followed by Princess Blandin at 2% and another 6% still undecided.
For comparison, the FiveThirtyEight polling average shows Youngkin ahead 47.7% to 46.7%.
Harry Enten: “If the polls are to be believed, Republicans are going to do very well in Virginia given the political baseline in the state. Traditionally, this would foretell a strong Republican performance in next year’s midterms. In fact, given Virginia is more blue than the nation as a whole on the presidential level, a tie in this year’s gubernatorial election would essentially be in line with Republicans winning the national House vote by 5 points next year.”
“To be clear, McAuliffe can very much still win this race. The election is well within the margin of error… Still, the most likely outcome is a close margin between McAuliffe and Youngkin. That’s bad for Democrats given that President Joe Biden won the state by 10 points last year.”
Reuters: Virginia governor’s race could show the way for Republican congressional campaigns.
“A fiercely competitive race for governor is testing whether Democrats can generate the voter enthusiasm that propelled President Biden to a 10-point victory here last year, or whether a Republican can win by nodding at but not fully embracing former President Donald Trump,” the Wall Street Journal reports.
“Nearly every recent poll ahead of Tuesday’s Virginia election has shown an even contest between former Democratic Gov. Terry McAuliffe and Republican businessman Glenn Youngkin, a potential sign of change, because Republicans haven’t won a statewide race since 2009.”
New York Times: “The size and atmosphere of dueling events during the last weekend of campaigning before Election Day on Tuesday reflected the trends in the most recent polls. Mr. Youngkin, the Republican candidate, greeted crowds of more than 1,000, while Mr. McAuliffe, the Democrat, hustled through sparsely attended events from morning to night.”
Politico: “There is scant evidence that McAuliffe’s attempt to revive the agitated emotions of 2020 and to cast Youngkin as a Donald Trump proxy is working. What seems evident is that many residents are feeling drained and ready to return to a time when politics wasn’t all-consuming.”
New York Times: “The former Virginia governor and his top aides, who have been pushing congressional and White House officials to pass the bill for over a month, were both stunned and infuriated… They were amazed Ms. Pelosi had been forced to delay the vote for the second time in a month, baffled why the president didn’t make a more aggressive push and despairing about the impact of yet another round of negative stories from Washington.”
A new Roanoke College poll in Virginia finds Terry McAuliffe (D) barely ahead of Glenn Youngkin (R) in the race for governor, 47% to 46% with 6% still undecided.
The downticket races are also within the margin of error.
New York Times: “Terry McAuliffe’s strategy of relentlessly linking his Republican rival, Glenn Youngkin, to Donald Trump represents the best test yet of how much of a drag the former president still exerts on his party in blue and purple states. At the same time, Mr. Youngkin’s fancy footwork regarding Mr. Trump — avoiding his embrace without alienating him or his base — and his attacks on Mr. McAuliffe over the role of parents in schools will indicate if GOP candidates can sidestep Trumpism by drawing attention to what they argue is Democratic extremism on issues of race and gender.”
“Far from such old standbys of statewide races as property taxes and teacher pay, the issues in Virginia reflect the country’s canyonlike polarization and what each party portrays as the dire threat posed by the other.”
Dan Balz: “On this final weekend, many Democrats remain nervous. The most positive are at best cautiously optimistic. Their hope is that a state that has been trending Democratic for a decade will provide enough underlying momentum for McAuliffe to fend off Youngkin’s challenge.”
NBC News: “While Republicans more or less kept up their normal ground game throughout the pandemic, Democrats last year halted all in-person operations for months during the height of the presidential campaign.”
“Even now, in Virginia’s critical gubernatorial race, some progressives say they’re still having a difficult time getting people to volunteer in person, though vaccines have helped ease concerns.”
Virginia gubernatorial candidate Glenn Youngkin (R) will not participate in a virtual rally hosted by former President Donald Trump on Monday, the day before the election, CNN reports.
Said Youngkin: “I’m not going to be engaged in the tele-town hall.”
Politico: “In a polarized environment, Youngkin has staked his claim to the middle of the electorate: voters who don’t identify with either party. In three surveys released this week, Youngkin had 7- , 22- and 18-point leads among independents.”
“Virginia doesn’t have partisan voter registration, so these designations come from voters’ self-identification. And ‘independent’ doesn’t automatically mean moderate. But voters unaligned with both parties can flip elections, even in an emerging blue state like Virginia. Roughly a third of the electorate there identifies as independent.”
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Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.
Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.
Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.
Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.