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Just dropped · Trial Balloon · Ep. 192

November Surprises

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Trial Balloon · Ep. 192: November Surprises

Democrats Bank on High Early Vote In Virginia

October 27, 2021 · 7:53 am ET · Leave a Comment

“Both Democrat Terry McAuliffe and Republican Glenn Youngkin are imploring Virginians to cast ballots early in their hotly contested gubernatorial contest, which has drawn national attention,” Bloomberg reports.

“Signs point to Democrats holding a lead in early votes cast.”

New York Times: “By the time voters cast their ballots on Election Day next Tuesday, hundreds of thousands of other voters will have already done so in person and by mail during a month and a half of early voting. The state’s six-week early voting period, one of the longest in the country, began on Sept. 17 and ends on Saturday.”

2021 Campaign

Virginia Governor’s Race Is Deadlocked

October 27, 2021 · 6:36 am ET · Leave a Comment

A new Wason Center poll shows Terry McAuliffe (D) holds a 49% to 48% lead over Glenn Youngkin (R) in Virginia’s contest for governor.

2021 Campaign

Candidate Who Said She’s 52 Is Actually 72

October 26, 2021 · 9:44 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“Arlington County Board candidate Audrey Clement, who previously told news outlets that she is in her early 50s, appears to be two decades older,” the Washington Post reports.

“When asked about the discrepancy, Clement, a perennial candidate who largely has self-funded her independent campaigns for local office, said that asking for her age amounted to discrimination and violated her right to privacy.”

2021 Campaign

Virginia Governor’s Race Remains Very Tight

October 26, 2021 · 12:23 pm ET · Leave a Comment

A new VCU poll in Virginia finds Terry McAuliffe (D) just ahead of Glenn Youngkin (R) in the race for governor, 43% to 40%.

For comparison, the FiveThirtyEight polling average has McAuliffe up by 1.7 percentage points.

2021 Campaign

Spending on New Jersey Governor’s Race Soared

October 26, 2021 · 11:00 am ET · Leave a Comment

“The campaigns and outside groups for Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy and Republican rival Jack Ciattarelli have spent $45,871,086 in the general election, nearly twice as much as what was shelled out about this time four years ago,” NJ.com reports.

2021 Campaign NJ-Gov

Glenn Youngkin Now Running Against Books

October 26, 2021 · 9:06 am ET · Leave a Comment

“A new ad for Virginia Republican gubernatorial candidate Glenn Youngkin’s campaign features a Fairfax parent who sought to have Nobel Prize-winning author Toni Morrison’s 1987 classic novel Beloved removed from her son’s school curriculum because it gave him nightmares,” Insider reports.

“Murphy, however, does not mention in the ad that her son was a high school senior at the time and that the book in question, assigned as part of his Advanced Placement English curriculum, was Beloved, the vivid and wrenching novel about slavery in America that won the 1988 Pulitzer Prize for fiction.”

2021 Campaign VA-Gov

White House Goes All-In on Virginia

October 26, 2021 · 7:04 am ET · Leave a Comment

Playbook: “Unlike past White Houses, Biden isn’t trying to play down how much Virginia’s gubernatorial race matters for his political standing and agenda. The president is leaning in for better or worse on the eve of his campaign trip to Arlington.”

2021 Campaign

Dead Heat In Virginia

October 26, 2021 · 6:32 am ET · Leave a Comment

A new USA Today/Suffolk poll in Virginia shows Terry McAuliffe (D) and Glenn Youngkin (R) tied in the race for governor, 45% to 45%.

2021 Campaign VA-Gov

Virginia Governor’s Race Is a Dead Heat

October 25, 2021 · 4:05 pm ET · Leave a Comment

A new Emerson College poll of the Virginia gubernatorial race finds Glenn Youngkin (R) and Terry McAuliffe (R) tied, 48% to 48%.

2021 Campaign

Biden to Campaign for Phil Murphy

October 25, 2021 · 11:12 am ET · Leave a Comment

“President Joe Biden on Monday kicks off a crucial week for the future of his spending plans by traveling to New Jersey, where he will tout his proposals and share the spotlight with Gov. Phil Murphy (D) a week before Election Day,” NJ.com reports.

2021 Campaign NJ-Gov

Virginia Race for Governor Remains Tight

October 25, 2021 · 7:05 am ET · Leave a Comment

A new Cygnal poll in Virginia finds Terry McAuliffe and Glenn Youngkin deadlocked in the race for governor, 48% to 48% among likely voters.

For comparison, the FiveThirtyEight polling average shows McAuliffe just ahead, 47.9% to 45.6%.

2021 Campaign

Obama Gives Fiery Speech for Terry McAuliffe

October 23, 2021 · 5:09 pm ET · Leave a Comment

Former President Obama delivered a fiery address campaigning for Terry McAuliffe, urging Democrats to flock to the polls and taking a number of swings at Republican nominee Glenn Youngkin, The Hill reports.

Said Obama: “Go out there and fight and work because you’re going to decide this election and the direction of Virginia and this country for generations to come. Don’t sit this one out.”

He added: “We ain’t got time to be tired. What is required is sustained effort.”

2021 Campaign

Democrats Look for Signs In Virginia Race

October 23, 2021 · 1:58 pm ET · Leave a Comment

Dan Balz: “No single election ever answers all the questions of the moment in politics, but fairly or not, the Nov. 2 Virginia contest has taken on outsized importance, particularly to nervous Democrats who are justifiably fearful about losing their congressional majorities in the 2022 midterms. It’s as if the future of the party and of President Biden’s second two years in office are suddenly wrapped up how well McAuliffe does in his bid to regain the governor’s mansion.”

“One thing to remember is that McAuliffe’s victory in 2013, while it beat the historical pattern of Virginians electing a governor from the party that does not hold the White House, did not foreshadow the 2014 midterms, which were won by the Republicans. No matter what happens in Virginia’s gubernatorial race, Democrats will be on the defensive in 2022. The question is: by how much?”

2021 Campaign

Letitia James Makes Political Hires

October 23, 2021 · 1:46 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“While New York’s political elite awaits some definitive word from Letitia James about whether she intends to run for governor next year, her campaign team is being less guarded,” the New York Times reports.

“In recent weeks, the team has made four significant new hires, most prominently Celinda Lake, the veteran Democratic strategist who served as one of the two lead pollsters for President Biden in the 2020 campaign.”

“The addition of advisers like Ms. Lake, a longtime party pollster who has a background in electing female candidates, would strongly suggest that Ms. James is gearing up for a high-profile, competitive race — rather than focusing on her current run for re-election as state attorney general.”

2021 Campaign

Obama Stumps for McAuliffe In Virginia

October 23, 2021 · 7:14 am ET · Leave a Comment

Former President Barack Obama on Saturday joins a roster of high-profile Democrats campaigning for Terry McAuliffe, a candidate for Virginia governor in a race seen as a barometer of the country’s political direction, Reuters reports.

2021 Campaign

McAuliffe Up By Five In Virginia

October 22, 2021 · 5:19 pm ET · Leave a Comment

A new Data for Progress poll in Virginia finds Terry McAuliffe (D) leading Glenn Youngkin (R) in the race for governor, 50% to 45%.

2021 Campaign VA-Gov

Trump Is a Factor In the Virginia Governor’s Race

October 22, 2021 · 12:00 pm ET · Leave a Comment

Harry Enten: “You can see how closely feelings toward Trump and vote choice align by looking at the crosstabs of the Fox News poll. On a scale of -1 to +1, the correlation across demographic groups between Trump’s unfavorable rating and McAuliffe’s standing in the horse race was over +0.98. You rarely get that type of correlation between the popularity of an out-of-office politician and vote choice. It’s nearly the same as Biden’s popularity and vote choice (over +0.99 correlation).”

“Indeed, a CBS News/YouGov poll from Virginia shows just how motivating a factor Trump is in whether voters cast a ballot. A majority of likely voters (51%) said feelings about Trump were very motivating. That’s basically the same as the 48% who said the same thing about their feelings toward Biden.”

“Separate polling from a Monmouth University poll in August showed that about the same share of Virginia voters indicated that Trump was a major factor in their 2021 vote as they did in 2017.”

2021 Campaign VA-Gov

Youngkin Accused of Antisemitism

October 22, 2021 · 11:06 am ET · Leave a Comment

Virginia gubernatorial candidate Glenn Youngkin (R) “is facing allegations of antisemitism after accusing allies of Jewish philanthropist George Soros of a shadowy campaign to place secret political operatives onto Virginia school boards,” the Washington Post reports.

Said Youngkin: “The present chaos in our schools lays squarely at the feet of 40-year politician Terry McAuliffe. It just does. But also at George Soros-backed allies, these allies that are in the left, liberal progressive movement. They’ve inserted political operatives into our school system disguised as school boards.”

2021 Campaign VA-Gov

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Taegan Goddard

Taegan Goddard

Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire -- which for more than two decades has been one of the nation's most influential political news sites.

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