“Two special congressional elections on Tuesday in Florida were supposed to have been cakewalks for the Republican Party,” the New York Times reports.

“Instead, one contest has turned into the unlikely scene of a multimillion-dollar spending brawl — and of pre-election finger-pointing on the right over how the race ever became a race at all.”

“Elon Musk has thrust himself into the center of a state Supreme Court race in Wisconsin. Democrats are trying to use it to their advantage,” CNN reports.

“In the final stretch of the election, Musk has intensified his involvement in the contest, pouring millions of his personal fortune into the state to boost the conservative candidate, Brad Schimel. On Sunday, the tech billionaire made the trek to Wisconsin to directly pitch voters and handed out two $1 million checks to attendees at a town hall in Green Bay, Wisconsin.”

New York Times: Wisconsin voters see Supreme Court race as a referendum on Trump.

Elon Musk framed Tuesday’s election for Wisconsin’s state Supreme Court in nothing less than apocalyptic terms, telling a crowd in Green Bay that the vote could ultimately swing control of Congress — meaning it could effectively “affect the entire destiny of humanity,” the New York Times reports.

“President Trump’s decision to keep one of his closest allies in Congress is shining an even brighter spotlight on special elections next week that will provide the first big read on what voters think so far of Trump 2.0,” the Wall Street Journal reports.

“Just days before two special elections to fill House seats in Florida, along with a closely watched state supreme court race in Wisconsin, Trump said he couldn’t risk losing the vote of Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY) who had been poised to start as U.S. ambassador to the United Nations as soon as next week. The reversal marked an extraordinary admission by Trump, and it brought home the brittle nature of Republicans’ power on Capitol Hill as they work to advance his legislative agenda.”

Said Trump: “We don’t want to take any chances, it’s as simple as that. It’s basic politics. Politics 101.”

Charlie Sykes: “In effect, the Wisconsin race has become a referendum on Elon Musk, who has — by the latest estimate —put $20 million into the campaign to elect the conservative candidate, Brad Schimel. Trump has personally endorsed Schimel and Musk will be here on Sunday to campaign for Schimel in person. And he’ll be handing out more checks to voters.”

Christian Schneider: “If Democrats successfully paint the conservative candidate as a Musk puppet, this strategy will undoubtedly spread nationwide. If liberals succeed in defeating Schimel based on DOGE’s handiwork, it might actually be Democrats who keep Musk in the news to use his influence as a talking point in the 2026 midterms.”

New York Times: “Mr. Musk, the Republican megadonor, said early Friday that he would be going to Wisconsin, apparently to campaign for the conservative candidate in a high-profile judicial contest.”

“The visit, two days before the vote on Tuesday, appears to be his most direct engagement in the State Supreme Court election, which is being watched closely as a test of Mr. Musk’s influence.”

An internal GOP poll found Josh Weil (D) up 3 points over Randy Fine (R) in next week’s special House election, 44% to 41%, with 10% undecided.

“That result spooked Republicans and spurred them to redouble efforts to ensure a comfortable win in the district.”

Cook Political Report: “With Democrats just three seats short of a House majority, the party is looking for any opening to force Republicans on defense. Their first electoral test will be next Tuesday, when voters cast ballots to fill two vacant seats in Florida. But though the Democratic candidates have harnessed progressive donors’ outrage at the Trump administration to raise gob-smacking sums of money, their odds of winning either race remain incredibly slim.”

“These two districts are among the most conservative in the Sunshine State. President Donald Trump carried the 1st District, vacated by scandal-ridden Rep. Matt Gaetz, by 37 points. He won the 6th District, left open by now-National Security Adviser Michael Waltz, by a similar margin at 30 points. Gaetz, despite facing allegations of sexual misconduct and illegal drug use, won reelection last November by 32 points; Waltz won by 33 points.”

Wall Street Journal: Republicans grow anxious about Florida special election.

A new Emerson College survey of New York City’s Democratic primary for Mayor finds Andrew Cuomo with 38% support, a five-point increase from February.

Zohran Mamdani follows at 10%, a nine-point increase from February, followed by Mayor Eric Adams at 8%, a two-point decrease from last month, Jessica Ramos at 6%, Brad Lander at 6%, Scott Stringer at 5%, and Adrienne Adams at 4%.

G. Elliot Morris: “For the 2026 election cycle so far, there have been 14 contested special elections in state house districts across the country. Using this spreadsheet of results and benchmarks, we can see that the Democratic candidates across those 14 seats beat Harris’s margin vs Trump with the same voters last November by 10 percentage points on average.”

“There were 67 state legislative special elections held in 2017 for the 2018 midterm cycle… In those, Democratic candidates beat Hillary Clinton’s margin vs Trump in 2016 by 11 points. So, an 11-point swing for Democrats in 2017, and 10 points for 2025 so far. Ten is not so different from 11.”

James Malone (D) has won an open Pennsylvania state Senate seat in a major upset in a district that comfortably voted for President Trump in November, The Hill reports.

Trump carried the district with 57% last year.

Punchbowl News: “House Republicans shouldn’t have to worry about Florida’s 6th District special election on April 1. It’s a deep-red seat that former Rep. Michael Waltz (R-FL) won by 33 points five months ago before decamping for the Trump administration.”

“But many GOP officials are concerned that Republican candidate Randy Fine’s lackluster fundraising and sky-high Democratic enthusiasm could put the race in uncomfortably close territory.”

“Fine, a GOP state legislator, has raised just under $1 million since entering the race and has just $93,000 on hand. Meanwhile, Democratic candidate Josh Weil has brought in a stunning $9 million and has $1.2 million on hand.”

“President Donald Trump and billionaire adviser Elon Musk are going all-in on flipping control of Wisconsin’s top court, with Trump endorsing the conservative in the race and Musk’s PAC hunting for votes by offering state residents cash for their contact details,” the Washington Post reports.

“The burst of support comes as Trump faces his first test with swing-state voters in the April 1 election since winning a second term in November. The court is expected to decide the future of abortion in the state and could redraw a congressional map that has given Republicans six of the state’s eight seats.”

“Republican candidates across the country are wooing the group for support for the 2026 midterm elections and other political efforts,” the Wall Street Journal reports.

“In Georgia, gubernatorial candidates have asked the group to play a role in that race, according to people familiar with the outreach. In other 2026 battleground states, including Arizona, Senate candidates have also reached out to the group.” The first test for Musk’s might comes in Wisconsin, where a state Supreme Court race has already drawn big spending from the billionaire’s group.

“After weeks of appeals from Wisconsin Republicans, President Trump on Friday night endorsed Brad Schimel, the conservative candidate in a hard-fought contest that will decide control of the Wisconsin Supreme Court,” the New York Times reports.

“The endorsement of Judge Schimel was hardly surprising, but Wisconsin Republicans had eagerly awaited Mr. Trump’s intervention, hoping for a burst of conservative energy in their bid to upend the State Supreme Court’s 4-to-3 liberal majority.”

“From spurned civil servants to frustrated residents, a surge of Americans are considering running for office,” Bloomberg reports.