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Just dropped · Trial Balloon · Ep. 192

November Surprises

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Trial Balloon · Ep. 192: November Surprises

The Big Decision Facing Kamala Harris

November 25, 2024 · 6:33 am ET · Leave a Comment

Playbook: “Her tropical interlude hasn’t been entirely about R&R. Harris has spent a lot of time on the phone since her loss to Donald Trump three weeks ago tomorrow. And she has given all of the allies she has spoken to the same message: ‘I am staying in the fight.’”

“The question she faces is: In what capacity does she plan to do her fighting?”

“Put simply, Harris has two possible tracks should she wish to stake a place at the highest level of Democratic politics: (1) position herself for a 2028 presidential run or (2) pursue a run for California governor in 2026.”

NPR: After Harris’ loss, black female political organizers are unsure what to do next.

2026 Campaign, 2028 Campaign

Democrats Look to Revamp 2028 Calendar

November 16, 2024 · 10:36 am ET · Leave a Comment

“With President Joe Biden soon leaving the White House after having dictated the order of states in 2024, Democratic National Committee members are already readying for a fight to reorder the primary contests in the next presidential election,” NBC News reports.

2028 Campaign

Democrats Already Jockeying for 2028

November 16, 2024 · 10:08 am ET · Leave a Comment

“As the dust settles from Vice President Kamala Harris’ defeat at the hands of President-elect Donald Trump, Democrats are already jockeying to emerge as the party’s next leader — looking to shape the opposition response to Trump’s second term and position themselves in the party’s 2028 presidential primary,” NBC News reports.

“In particular, the deep bench of Democratic governors elected in 2018 and 2022 has the benefit of distance from President Joe Biden’s administration and the ability to take on Trump with state executive authority in the coming years — a step several potential contenders are already taking in special legislative sessions, the launch of new advocacy groups and chest-beating statements.”

2028 Campaign

How Democrats Can Retool Their Message

November 13, 2024 · 11:30 am ET · Leave a Comment

Jonathan Martin: “It sounds odd, but the scale of Vice President Kamala Harris’ defeat may double as a silver lining. By losing all seven battleground states, suffering their first popular vote loss in two decades and, most importantly, watching President-elect Donald Trump prevail with a working-class coalition that was once their own, Democrats have an opportunity to turn despair into action.”

“Unlike 2016, when they won the popular vote while losing by a sliver in the swing states, or 2020, when they rebounded and won both, Democrats now have a mandate for change. And not just on tactics or points of emphasis: the breadth of their defeat, and the number of voters who abandoned them, present the party an opening to rethink their orientation around affinity group politics.”

“The question is whether they’ll be emboldened or cower when one of ‘the groups,’ as identity-based organizations are invariably called, speaks up. But the reward is alluring. Whoever can retain the party’s traditional commitments to the most vulnerable and appeal to those voters who just rejected Harris will emerge as the Democrats’ strongest 2028 nominee and perhaps the next president.”

2028 Campaign

The 2028 Shadow Primary Is Umderway

November 11, 2024 · 6:28 am ET · Leave a Comment

“Josh Shapiro is already fielding calls from Democratic Party leaders in Pennsylvania urging him to run for president. Gavin Newsom held a Friday call with about 50,000 people in his small-donor network and called a special legislative session designed to Trump-proof California. And Pete Buttigieg is set to tout his Cabinet accomplishments in a series of events as he winds down his official role,” Politico reports.

“Democrats are only a few days into recriminations over why they blew the presidential race. But conversations and moves by ambitious Democrats focused on 2028 have already begun.”

2028 Campaign

Far-Right Trump Supporters Celebrate

November 6, 2024 · 2:38 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“Donald Trump will be the next president of the United States, and the same far-right extremists emboldened by his first administration are celebrating his win with violent memes and threats,” Wired reports.

“Many of the social media posts reviewed by Wired reveled in fantasies of Trump locking up and even executing his political opponents in revenge.”

2028 Campaign

Vance Mostly Helped Himself Last Night

October 2, 2024 · 11:00 am ET · Leave a Comment

Jonathan Last: “Vance had mostly nice things to say about Tim Walz. He wasn’t mean at all. When Walz talked about his son being near a school shooting, Vance expressed his sympathy and said, ‘Christ have mercy’ while shaking his head.”

“He didn’t say MAGA once. He implied that Obamacare was good, while Trump’s official policy still seems to be that it should be repealed. He accepted the reality of climate change and acknowledged that some unnamed Republicans needed to ‘earn back; the trust of Americans on the subject of abortion.”

“He was young and svelte and perfectly deferential to Trump. So perfectly that it felt a little cloyingly. Almost like he was putting the shine on the old man.”

“I doubt Vance did anything meaningful to help Trump’s electoral prospects. But he absolutely helped his own prospects for 2028, or 2032, or whenever Trump leaves the scene.”

2028 Campaign

DeSantis to Meet With Iowa Republicans

July 15, 2024 · 12:21 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“Florida Governor Ron DeSantis is expected to speak at an Iowa Republican Party event during the GOP convention in Milwaukee on Wednesday,” Bloomberg reports.

“DeSantis’ presence at the lunch event is seen as a key sign of his interest in running for president in 2028… Historically, presidential candidates have wooed Iowans during the GOP conventions in advance of their White House bids.”

2028 Campaign

Andy Beshear Quietly Eyes 2028

June 22, 2024 · 11:50 am ET · Leave a Comment

Wall Street Journal: “Beshear’s talent for projecting compassion, including to Republicans, helps explain how the Democrat pulled off 2023’s most impressive political feat. Last November, Beshear was resoundingly re-elected in his deep-red Southern state, despite facing a strong opponent amid a sour national mood. Kentucky went for Trump by 26 points in 2020 and will likely post similar numbers in this year’s vote. Yet the 46-year-old Beshear, whose mild-mannered demeanor belies his political cunning, has only gotten more popular: In the latest Morning Consult rankings, his 65% approval rating made him the most popular Democratic governor in the country.”

“That record has drawn the attention of national Democrats, who widely see Beshear as a potential contender for the 2028 presidential nomination. Beshear has quietly begun making contact with national donors, and some have made pilgrimages to the state to size him up.”

2028 Campaign

Brian Kemp Plots His Next Steps

May 29, 2024 · 7:55 am ET · Leave a Comment

“Gov. Brian Kemp is no die-hard Donald Trump supporter after clashing with the former president for much of the past three years. And he’s steered clear of increasingly MAGA-fied Georgia GOP events since 2022,” the Atlanta Journal Constitution reports.

“So why is he headed to the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee in July?”

“The second-term governor doesn’t have a formal speaking slot during the four-day event, and he may not get one. But he aims to continue to build his influence, both within and without MAGA world, as he contemplates whether to challenge Democratic U.S. Sen. Jon Ossoff in 2026 or run for president in 2028.”

2026 Campaign, 2028 Campaign

Brian Kemp Builds Up Political Operation

May 28, 2024 · 6:20 am ET · Leave a Comment

“Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp sat out the 2024 presidential primary as other ambitious Republicans tried to topple Donald Trump. Now, the popular swing-state governor is building up his political operation, not only helping a handful of candidates in tight across the country, but cultivating influence ahead of his own possible future run,” Politico reports.

“And he will attend the Republican nominating convention in Milwaukee this summer.”

“The Georgia Republican, a rare GOP politician who stood up to Trump and emerged from the tangle unscathed, has maintained that he would support the Republican nominee for president, but had not disclosed any plans to attend the party’s convention this July. Kemp has been particularly selective about his political activities over the last several years, and hasn’t attended a Trump rally since 2020.”

2028 Campaign

Jared Polis Won’t Rule Out 2028 Presidential Bid

February 22, 2024 · 2:34 pm ET · Leave a Comment

Colorado Gov. Jared Polis (D) “did not rule out a 2028 presidential bid when pressed about his future plans,” Politico reports.

Said Polis: “This is a job a little different than a senator in Congress, where you kind of have a little more time to think about things. You’re really running things day to day in your states. There’s very little time, nor should people in those kinds of positions, to be thinking about three, four years out.”

2028 Campaign

Trump Plans to Make Ron DeSantis a ‘Political Eunuch’

February 8, 2024 · 10:55 am ET · Leave a Comment

“After a year of getting roundly humiliated by Donald Trump and failing to unseat him as the leader of the Republican Party, Ron DeSantis finally dropped out of the race and endorsed Trump’s bid to reclaim the White House. But while the former president publicly retired his ‘DeSanctimonious’ nickname, Trump has privately made clear over the past two weeks that he’s not ready to let go of his grudge against the Florida governor and former ally,” Rolling Stone reports.

“According to two sources with knowledge of the matter and another person briefed on it, the former president and 2024 GOP frontrunner has continued to ridicule DeSantis in conversations with close associates, saying that the governor doesn’t have what it takes to be the party’s ‘future.'”

“One of the sources, who has spoken to the ex-president about this topic recently, bluntly characterizes Trump’s attitude on DeSantis’ future as wanting to turn ‘Ron into a political eunuch’ who never gets to be president, much less lead his party. In months past… Trump privately insisted that if DeSantis truly wishes to earn his forgiveness, the Florida governor would have to ‘kiss my ass, a lot.'”

2024 Campaign, 2028 Campaign

Kamala Harris Lays Groundwork for 2028

February 3, 2024 · 11:04 am ET · Leave a Comment

New York Times: “Ms. Harris’s trip, as well as her college tour last year and an ongoing circuit to defend abortion rights and promote the Democratic agenda, also served two larger purposes: working to shore up Mr. Biden’s lingering vulnerabilities with Black voters and young voters, and keeping the first woman and first woman of color to serve as vice president at the forefront for the next presidential contest in 2028.”

2028 Campaign

Gavin Newsom Goes to South Carolina

January 26, 2024 · 10:11 am ET · Leave a Comment

Politico: “There was California’s governor, in a distant land — 2,700 miles from home and still not adjusted to Wednesday morning’s Eastern time-zone change, yet finally in the nerve center of early state presidential politicking. And already, some of his party’s most important voters were sizing him up as a White House aspirant — consuming themselves with the distant election when November is still months away. It went beyond his appearance, with some convinced he was too progressive for the South…”

“Newsom wanted to give stump speeches ahead of the state’s new, first-in-the-nation Democratic primary, appearing there for the first time as a headliner and getting early exposure to its powerful blocs of Black voters and rural Democrats. They, meanwhile wanted to test his 2028 chops.”

2024 Campaign, 2028 Campaign

Andy Beshear Launches Leadership PAC

January 8, 2024 · 11:38 am ET · Leave a Comment

“On the heels of a decisive electoral victory, Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear (D) has launched a political action committee to assist like-minded politicians across the country,” the Lexington Herald Leader reports.

“Beshear launched In This Together PAC Sunday evening, a political action committee which says it will work to elect ‘good people’ that reject ‘the anger politics that have come to dominate our country.’”

2024 Campaign, 2028 Campaign

Bonus Quote of the Day

December 27, 2023 · 1:30 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“You never go get high on your own supply. And I’m not thinking about 2028. I am only making sure to prioritize 2024.”

— Sen. John Fetterman (D-PA), when asked by Politico if he would ever run for president.

2028 Campaign

Looking Ahead to 2028

December 26, 2023 · 11:22 am ET · Leave a Comment

Politico: “So, who took the pivotal steps in 2023 that set them on the path to the presidency in 2028? It’s not too soon to ask, though that doesn’t make the exercise easy.”

2028 Campaign

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Taegan Goddard

Taegan Goddard

Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire -- which for more than two decades has been one of the nation's most influential political news sites.

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