Elon Musk posted on X: “The Trump tariffs will cause a recession in the second half of this year.”
U.S. Economy Stalled Last Month
“The U.S. economy slowed to a crawl in May, with consumers pulling back on spending and businesses delaying hiring, according to the Federal Reserve‘s Beige Book survey released Wednesday,” MarketWatch reports.
“According to the report, nine of the 12 Fed districts reported contraction in economic activity or no change in growth. The remaining districts saw slight growth.”
Economists Question Quality of U.S. Inflation Data
“Some economists are beginning to question the accuracy of recent U.S. inflation data after the federal government said staffing shortages hampered its ability to conduct a massive monthly survey,” the Wall Street Journal reports.
Trump Slams Fed Chair After Dismal Jobs Report
President Trump angrily urged Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell to cut interest rates, “minutes after the payroll firm ADP reported the lowest private-sector jobs report in years,” CNBC reports.
Trump Officials Delayed Farm Trade Report
“Trump administration officials delayed and redacted a government forecast because it predicts an increase in the nation’s trade deficit in farm goods later this year,“ Politico reports.
“The numbers run counter to President Donald Trump’s messaging that his economic policies, including tariffs, will reduce U.S. trade imbalances. The politically inconvenient data prompted administration officials to block publication of the written analysis normally attached to the report because they disliked what it said about the deficit.”
Economic Growth Forecasts Cut Sharply
“Economic growth forecasts for the U.S. and globally were cut further by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development as President Donald Trump’s tariff turmoil weighs on expectations,” CNBC reports.
Axios: “If the group’s last outlook three months ago was cautious, then Tuesday’s forecast was downright gloomy.”
Tourists Are Saying No to America
Wall Street Journal: “About 1.9 million foreigners arrived at the U.S.’s main airports in the past four weeks, down 6% from the same period last year… Airline bookings data for the summer suggest things won’t be picking up soon. Flight bookings to the U.S. from Europe are down by about 12% through August. San Francisco, Washington, D.C., and Los Angeles are seeing even larger declines.”
“Overseas travelers say they are swapping U.S. vacation plans for trips to Europe or in their own countries. Some cite the Trump administration’s immigration crackdown and reports of foreign visitors being detained or deported from the U.S. Others say they want to signal their discontent with the White House’s policies, echoing boycotts of American-made products by Canadians and Teslas in Europe.”
Los Angeles Times: “Narratives of travel disruptions under the Trump administration have given pause to U.S. officials and industry experts concerned not only with the immediate economic consequences of a slower summer season, but with the prospects of anemic attendance at World Cup games next year and, beyond, for the Olympics in Los Angeles in 2028.”
CNBC: Safer to stay home? European firms rethink travel policy over U.S. border control concerns.
Trump Pledges to Double Tariffs on Foreign Steel
“President Trump said on Friday that he would double the tariffs he had levied on foreign steel and aluminum to 50 percent, a move that he claimed would further protect the industry,” the New York Times reports.
“The announcement came as Mr. Trump traveled to a U.S. Steel factory outside Pittsburgh to hail a ‘planned partnership’ that he helped broker between U.S. Steel and Nippon Steel, a corporate merger that he opposed last year as a presidential candidate. Although the details of the U.S. Steel deal are still murky — and Mr. Trump later admitted he had not yet seen or signed off on it — the president used the moment to cast himself as a champion of the embattled industry.”
Economic Fears Mount Over Trump’s Tariffs
“With President Donald Trump’s tariffs entangled in the courts, industry leaders are warning that continued confusion over his trade agenda could drag down an economy that was already in danger of slumping,” Politico reports.
“They are urging Trump to abandon an aggressive policy that has been marked by chaos and reversals, and instead focus on delivering tangible, lasting deals that will allow businesses to plan ahead. A federal court on Wednesday froze the tariffs, but an appeals court on Thursday reinstated them for now, only fueling the sense of disarray.”
Trade Crime Is Soaring
“As President Trump’s tariffs have ratcheted up in recent months, so have the mysterious solicitations some U.S. companies have received, offering them ways to avoid the taxes,” the New York Times reports.
“Shipping companies, many of them based in China, have reached out to U.S. firms that import apparel, auto parts and jewelry, offering solutions that they say can make the tariffs go away.”
Tesla Sales Plunge in Europe
“European sales of Tesla vehicles plunged in April, as the U.S. electric car maker continues to face reputational damage regionally and rising competition,” CNBC reports.
“Tesla sold 7,261 cars in Europe in April, down 49% year on year… That drop came even as overall battery electric car sales rose 34.1% annually in April.”
Tourists from Countries Hit Hard by Tariffs Stay Away
“Holidaymakers in countries hit the hardest by Donald Trump’s trade tariffs are taking the US off their list for trips abroad, according to online travel booking data,” The Guardian reports.
Trump’s Tariffs Have ‘Massive Impact’ on Small Business
New York Times: “Tariffs pose even bigger risks to small businesses. They typically don’t have the deep financial reserves needed to weather economic problems, the heft to demand lower prices from suppliers and the sway to lobby the government for exemptions from tariffs.”
Trump Approves ‘Partnership’ of U.S. Steel and Nippon
Pittsburgh Post-Gazette: “Trump heralded the deal that would keep U.S. Steel in America and its headquarters in Pittsburgh… The language of ‘partnership’ as opposed to ‘acquisition’ harkens back to Trump’s comments earlier this year when he sought to reframe the relationship between Nippon and U.S. Steel.”
“Nippon, for its part, has not wavered from the structure of the original deal.”
Trump Ignores Economic Warning Signs
“One day after House Republicans approved an expensive package of tax cuts that rattled financial markets, President Trump pivoted back to his other signature policy priority, unveiling a battery of tariff threats that further spooked investors and raised the prospects of higher prices on American consumers,” the New York Times reports.
“For a president who has fashioned himself as a shrewd steward of the economy, the decision to escalate his global trade war on Friday appeared curious and costly. It capped off a week that saw Mr. Trump ignore repeated warnings that his agenda could worsen the nation’s debt, harm many of his own voters, hurt the finances of low-income families and contribute far less in growth than the White House contends.”
Millions Could Lose Food Assistance
“Millions of low-income Americans, including families with children, could lose their food stamp benefits under House Republicans’ newly passed tax and spending cuts package, according to a Congressional Budget Office analysis,” CNN reports.
GOP Tax Plan Provides Negligible Economic Benefits
“House Republicans’ tax package would only provide a modest boost to economic growth, according to a new government analysis that’s sure to disappoint GOP lawmakers,” Politico reports.
“The plan would increase the average annual growth rate by 0.03 percentage points to 1.86 percent from 1.83 percent, the nonpartisan Joint Committee on Taxation predicts.”
Treasury Sounds Death Knell for Penny Production
“The U.S. government is phasing out the penny, whose use has spanned more than two centuries,” the Wall Street Journal reports.
“The Treasury Department will stop putting new pennies into circulation by early next year. Afterward, there won’t be enough pennies to use in everyday cash transactions, and businesses will need to start rounding up or down to the nearest 5 cents, the Treasury said in a statement.”
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