“Wall Street is optimistic that a buoyant stock market, declining interest rates and Donald Trump’s lighter-regulation agenda will prompt a dealmaking rebound in 2025. But jitters remain thanks to the president-elect’s unpredictability,” the Wall Street Journal reports.

“Deal volume has been muted for the past few years following record volumes coming out of the pandemic. While total global deal volume is up roughly 12% in 2024 through Dec. 26 compared with the same period in 2023, the number of transactions is lower and volume remains well below the 2021 high.”

“Dealmakers were encouraged when Trump in December picked Andrew Ferguson, the Republican Federal Trade Commission member, to succeed FTC Chair Lina Khan. Ferguson and Republicans are expected to dismantle Khan’s guidelines that gave the agency new legal powers to try to block deals.”

“The Federal Reserve is starting to contend with how President-elect Donald Trump and his ambitious policies could reignite inflation in 2025,” the Washington Post reports.

“The central bank’s leaders strive to protect their independence from the White House and avoid commenting on politics or policy proposals. Fed Chair Jerome H. Powell had said for weeks that it was premature to discuss the degree to which the president-elect’s proposals — including higher tariffs, lower taxes and deportation of immigrants — would factor into its decisions on interest rates.”

Wall Street Journal: “The U.S. farm sector finds itself in another rough patch. Net farm income declined 4% this year to $141 billion after falling about 20% last year, according to the Agriculture Department. … Some of the world’s largest grain shippers and pesticide suppliers are girding for a shrinking farm economy by cutting costs or laying off workers.”

“Agriculture trade groups are circulating lists of requests to lawmakers extending beyond direct payments that could buffet against the current market slump.”

The U.S. economy grew at a 3.1% annualized pace in the third quarter — stronger than previously thought, Axios reports.

New York Times: “The economy is doing better than most economists predicted a few years ago. Forecasters widely warned that the Fed would seriously harm the economy as it tried to control runaway inflation by sharply raising interest rates in 2022 and 2023. Instead, price increases have come down substantially without a broader implosion. The unemployment rate is low. Consumers are spending.”

“But a variety of risks — some sheer happenstance, some floated by Mr. Trump — could interfere with that rosy outcome just as the newly re-elected president takes office.”

Wall Street Journal: Has the era of very low rates ended?

“After five years of uncertainty and turmoil, the U.S. economy is ending 2024 in arguably its most stable condition since the start of the coronavirus pandemic,” the New York Times reports.

“Inflation has cooled. Unemployment is low. The Federal Reserve is cutting interest rates. The recession that many forecasters once warned was inevitable hasn’t materialized.”

“Yet the economic outlook for 2025 is as murky as ever, for one major reason: President-elect Donald Trump.”

Wall Street Journal: “The enthusiasm is being driven in part by the prospect of President-elect Donald Trump’s return to the White House, with many chief executives expecting their businesses to benefit from lower corporate taxes and less regulation, according to a new survey.”

“Outcomes of other elections around the world are also fueling expectations for improvements in the global economy and political stability. Executives are predicting a pickup in deal activity and easier access to capital in the coming months as well.”

“Tariff-conscious consumers are stockpiling goods and rushing to upgrade old cars and appliances to get ahead of potential price increases,” the Wall Street Journal reports.

“A quarter of Americans surveyed said it was a good time for major purchases as they expect prices to go up next year, up from 10% a month prior and a record high, according to the University of Michigan’s monthly survey of consumers.”

Wall Street Journal: “Despite his pledge to lower inflation, if Trump follows through on some of his tariff and immigration plans, economists worry he might do just the opposite…”

“The problem presidents face with inflation is that there is only so much they really can do to cool it off.”

“Consumer prices rose at a faster annual pace in November, a reminder that inflation remains an issue both for households and policymakers,” CNBC reports.

“The consumer price index showed a 12-month inflation rate of 2.7% after increasing 0.3% on the month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Wednesday.”

“President-elect Donald Trump said his administration would help expedite permits for any person or company that invested at least $1 billion in the U.S.,” Bloomberg reports.

“I can’t guarantee anything. I can’t guarantee tomorrow.”

— Donald Trump, quoted by NBC News, on whether he can guarantee American families won’t pay more as a result of tariffs.

“Job creation in November rebounded from a near-standstill the prior month as the effects of a significant labor strike and violent storms in the Southeast receded,” CNBC reports.

“Nonfarm payrolls increased by 227,000 for the month, compared to an upwardly revised 36,000 in October and the Dow Jones consensus estimate for 214,000.”

“Elon Musk’s plan to slash the federal workforce under Donald Trump is poised to upend one of the strongest engines of the US labor market: the government,” the Financial Times reports.

“Government and healthcare jobs have been the biggest source of employment in the past year, particularly for knowledge workers, data shows. US job recruiters, economists and labor leaders fear the plan to cut the workforce could crimp the number of good available jobs at a time of declining private-sector employment, compounding already-stiff competition for white-collar jobs.”

“A big shift is under way in American life: The prospects for working-class and poor white Americans are declining, while they are improving for Black Americans in the same economic tier,” the Wall Street Journal reports.

“That reversal of fortunes was documented in a landmark study published earlier this year by Harvard University researchers. The change in economic mobility the researchers traced—which shrank the amount by which Black Americans’ income lags behind white Americans’ income—occurred between 2005, when many Gen Xers were in their late 20s, and 2019, when many millennials reached the same age.”

“A Delaware judge upheld her earlier ruling striking down Elon Musk’s multibillion-dollar pay package, plunging Tesla’s board into more uncertainty over how to compensate its superstar chief executive for a decade of work,” the Wall Street Journal reports.

“The ruling marks another setback for Tesla’s directors, who have said the record stock-option deal was necessary to ensure Musk stayed focused on the carmaker at a time when it is facing slower growth in its automotive business.”

Bloomberg: “Gross domestic product increased at a 2.8% annualized pace in the third quarter, the second estimate of the figures from the Bureau of Economic Analysis showed Wednesday. The economy’s primary growth engine — consumer spending — advanced 3.5%, the most this year.”