Just dropped · Trial Balloon · Ep. 193
The Magnificent Seven
Reuters: “The Federal Reserve’s stance has recently shifted from dovish to hawkish and back again, leaving investors uncertain about the prospect of aggressive U.S. interest rate cuts next year.”
“But the central bank remains under political pressure to ease quickly. So if history is any guide, we may yet see a sugar rush economy in 2026.”
“Bill Pulte has made a name for himself by slinging dirt at Donald Trump’s foes — but some of the president’s aides now fear he isn’t up to doing his job: overseeing the $13 trillion US mortgage market,” Bloomberg reports.
Wall Street Journal: “His lack of confidence in central banks, as well as the dollar’s role in the global economy, dovetails with a Wall Street strategy known as the debasement trade. With inflation eating into the value of currencies in the U.S., Japan and elsewhere, more investors have turned to gold to safeguard their holdings.”
“Many gold companies advertise on cable TV and right-leaning media. Birch Gold Group lists endorsements from media personalities including Ben Shapiro and Donald Trump Jr. Goldco, another precious-metals company, boasts Sean Hannity and podcaster Shawn Ryan among its supporters.”
“Carlson said he had gotten an offer as high as $20 million a year to be a pitchman for a gold company. That figure made him skeptical of how the companies’ margins could be so high.”
“Wall Street is now looking past President Trump’s policy proposals meant to address the affordability crisis, from stimulus checks to 50-year-mortgages,” Axios reports.
“Market participants doubt whether the recent ideas will go anywhere and, if they do, whether they would actually address the problems of affordability.”
“A plunge in cryptocurrency assets accelerated Friday morning, led by bitcoin, which has lost more than a third of its value since setting an all-time high in October,” Axios reports.
“The bloodbath has left no corner of the market untouched, and is reviving the debate about crypto as a long-term asset.”
“President Donald Trump suggested he would fire Scott Bessent if the Treasury secretary doesn’t help secure lower interest rates, expressing ongoing frustration with the Federal Reserve’s reluctance to cut rates more quickly,” Bloomberg reports.
Said Trump: “The only thing Scott’s blowing it on is the Fed. Rates are too high, Scott, and if you don’t get it fixed fast, I’m going to fire your ass. Okay?”
President Trump renewed his attacks against Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, saying he would “love to fire his ass” for not lowering interest rates as much as he would like, the Washington Post reports.
Shares in Trump Media & Technology Group hit an all time low, erasing some $5 billion in value, Barrons reports.
President Trump appears to have snubbed Bank of America boss Brian Moynihan as he hosts a White House dinner with top Wall Street executives tonight – signaling a persistent rift between the pair over the “debanking” of the president following the Jan. 6 Capitol riot, the New York Post reports.
“President Donald Trump’s decision earlier this year to halt production of the U.S. penny is rippling through the economy faster than expected, triggering widespread shortages of the one-cent coin and headaches for retailers and banks,” Politico reports.
“The path for interest-rate cuts has been clouded by an emerging split within the central bank with little precedent during Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s nearly eight-year tenure,” the Wall Street Journal reports.
“Officials are fractured over which poses the greater threat—persistent inflation or a sluggish labor market—and even a resumption of official economic data may not bridge the differences.”
“A proposal for a 50-year mortgage wasn’t fully vetted by top Trump administration officials and wasn’t ready to be made public,” CBS News reports.
“Over the weekend, top federal housing official Bill Pulte floated the idea with President Trump, who then approved a Truth Social post.”
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said another rate cut in December is not guaranteed, Bloomberg reports.
The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates at its second consecutive meeting on Wednesday, extending an effort to prevent a recent slowdown in hiring from turning into something more serious, the Wall Street Journal reports.
Washington Post: “After keeping rates steady since January to assess the impact of President Donald Trump’s trade and immigration policies, the Fed cut rates in September and signaled cautiously that more reductions could be coming, even as inflation remains persistently high. However, Fed officials are increasingly worried about the state of the labor market.”
Punchbowl News: “All month long, the Federal Reserve has been forced to contend with an incomplete data picture. The last U.S. employment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics covered August. September’s report has been delayed indefinitely, and October’s may never exist. Economists have been sifting through private sector job reports since, which have shown a muddier picture.”
“The angle. Democrats have wasted no time this month attacking the Trump administration for this state of affairs.”
“The Federal Reserve has wagered since August that it could afford to lower interest rates even as inflation picked back up for two crucial reasons. Price pressures from President Trump’s tariffs were likely to be temporary, and a weakening labor market would help to keep inflation in check as companies hesitated to make their products more expensive and wage growth stayed subdued,” the New York Times reports.
“The government shutdown, which is entering its fifth week, has made that path all the more treacherous. The federal workers who collect and report economic data on inflation, the labor market, wages and a range of other metrics are no longer performing that work, obscuring officials’ view of the economy at a moment when divisions over the policy outlook have sharpened.”
Top analysts at Bank of America Research are pulling back the curtain on the colossal $22 trillion universe of private capital, an asset class so massive it would be “the world’s second-largest economy” if it were treated as a country, Fortune reports.
“Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Monday confirmed the names of five finalists to succeed Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, with the president saying he expected to make his decision by year-end,” Bloomberg reports.
“The candidate pool has narrowed to current Fed board members Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman, former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh, White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett and BlackRock Inc. executive Rick Rieder.”
Taegan Goddard
Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire -- which for more than two decades has been one of the nation's most influential political news sites.
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