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Just dropped · Trial Balloon · Ep. 193

The Magnificent Seven

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Trial Balloon · Ep. 193: The Magnificent Seven

Fed Cuts Interest Rates by Quarter Point

September 17, 2025 · 2:04 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“The Federal Reserve on Wednesday approved a widely anticipated rate cut and signaled that two more are on the way before the end of the year as concerns intensified over the U.S. labor market,” CNBC reports.

“Newly installed Governor Stephen Miran was the only one of those voting against the quarter-point move, instead advocating for a half-point cut.”

Wall Street Journal: “A narrow majority of officials penciled in at least two additional cuts this year, implying consecutive moves at the Fed’s two remaining meetings in October and December. The projections hint at a broader shift toward concern about cracks forming in the job market in an environment complicated by major policy shifts that have made the economy harder to read.”

Financial Markets

Trump Crashes the Fed’s Consensus

September 17, 2025 · 10:00 am ET · Leave a Comment

“President Donald Trump’s onslaught against the Federal Reserve, and his installation of a top lieutenant on the central bank’s board, have made the Fed’s interest rate decision Wednesday one of the most politically charged ever,” Politico reports.

“On the one hand, the outcome — a small rate cut — is unlikely to be affected by either the addition of White House chief economist Stephen Miran or the continued presence of Lisa Cook, whom Trump is trying to oust from the board. But the vote could be a lot messier than usual at the consensus-driven central bank as Fed officials grapple with two problems they can’t fight simultaneously — a weakening job market and rising prices.”

Financial Markets

The Fed’s Anxious New Era

September 17, 2025 · 5:52 am ET · Leave a Comment

Punchbowl News: “It’s a new era for the Federal Reserve. And not everyone is jazzed about it.”

“The world’s most important central bank is set to cut interest rates today — probably by 25 basis points. That’s the boring part, though much of Washington and Wall Street will be thrilled.”

“It’s everything else swirling around the Federal Reserve in this politically charged moment that’s the problem. This may be the most important Fed Day in years.”

“President Donald Trump has been waging an unprecedented and broad-ranging campaign for control of the Fed all year long. This particular meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee comes at a critical crossroads in that conflict.”

Wall Street Journal: Fed divisions thrust Powell into uncharted territory.

Financial Markets

Senate Confirms Trump Adviser to Top Fed Post

September 15, 2025 · 8:46 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“The Senate on Monday confirmed White House economic adviser Stephen Miran to a key role at the Federal Reserve, allowing him to join the independent central bank while remaining in the Trump administration,” the Washington Post reports.

“The Senate narrowly voted 48-to-47 to confirm Miran, placing a sitting administration official inside an institution designed to operate independently from the White House. The move gives President Donald Trump a loyalist on the seven-member Fed board as he moves to reshape the central bank. It’s the first time in 90 years that a sitting White House official will have a role in setting monetary policy.”

Financial Markets

Appeals Court Rejects Trump Bid to Unseat Fed Governor

September 15, 2025 · 8:27 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“An appeals court ruled Monday that Lisa Cook can remain a Federal Reserve governor for now, rebuffing President Donald Trump’s efforts to remove her just ahead of a key vote on interest rates,” the AP reports.

“The Trump administration is expected to quickly turn to the Supreme Court in a last-ditch bid to unseat Cook before the Fed meets. And Cook’s lawsuit seeking to permanently block her firing must still make its way through the courts.”

Financial Markets

Michigan Finds No Tax Violation for Fed Governor

September 15, 2025 · 7:59 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“The property tax authority in Ann Arbor, Michigan, said that Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook hasn’t broken rules for tax breaks on a home there that Cook declared her primary residence,” Reuters reports.

Financial Markets

Trump Calls for ‘Bigger’ Interest Rate Cut

September 15, 2025 · 1:31 pm ET · Leave a Comment

President Trump called for Fed Chairman Jerome Powell to enact a “bigger” cut to benchmark interest rates and pointed to the housing market in a social media post ahead of the U.S. central bank’s meeting this week, Reuters reports.

Financial Markets

Trump Wants to Cut Back Quarterly Earnings Reports

September 15, 2025 · 9:16 am ET · Leave a Comment

“President Trump on Monday suggested U.S. public companies should no longer have to report earnings quarterly, but on a six-month schedule instead,” Axios reports.

“It would be a fundamental change in the way American companies do business, and more closely aligned with how public companies report results in Europe and elsewhere.”

Financial Markets

How Trump’s Provocative Economist Crashed the Fed

September 15, 2025 · 9:00 am ET · Leave a Comment

Wall Street Journal: “Two years ago, Stephen Miran’s career in finance seemed to reach a dead end. The investment firm he co-founded was closing, having never really gotten off the ground.”

“Now he is at the forefront of President Trump’s bid to remake the Federal Reserve.”

“Miran, chair of the White House’s Council of Economic Advisers, is poised to join the Fed’s board of governors, part of the 12-member panel that sets interest rates to steer the U.S. economy. It would be the first time since the creation of the modern Fed in the 1930s that a sitting member of the executive branch would also serve at the central bank.”

Financial Markets

Bonus Quote of the Day

September 15, 2025 · 8:45 am ET · Leave a Comment

“I’ve known him for a very long time. I’ve liked him and I’ve respected him, but lately I’ve seen him go on TV and make arguments that really make no sense in support of this administration’s policies. It’s a scary thought to have the kind of Fed chair that’s willing to sacrifice the central bank’s independence out of loyalty to the president.”

— Gregory Mankiw, a former economic adviser to President George W. Bush, quoted by Politico, on the possibility of Kevin Hassett becoming Fed chairman.

Financial Markets

Gold Hasn’t Rallied This Much Since 1979

September 15, 2025 · 7:44 am ET · Leave a Comment

Wall Street Journal: “Gold’s value has ballooned by 39% this year, putting it on track for a greater annual price jump than during the depths of the Covid-19 pandemic or 2007-09 recession, according to Dow Jones Market Data. Futures for the precious metal haven’t surged so much in a year since 1979, when a global energy crisis fueled an inflationary shock that thrashed the world’s economy.”

Financial Markets

White House Races to Keep Fed Governor Out of Meeting

September 15, 2025 · 7:39 am ET · Leave a Comment

“The Trump administration sought to convince a federal court on Sunday that President Trump possesses vast powers and ‘discretion’ to fire federal officials, as it raced to block Lisa Cook, a governor on the Federal Reserve, from participating in this week’s meeting of the central bank,” the New York Times reports.

Financial Markets

Elon Musk Purchased $1 Billion of Tesla Shares

September 15, 2025 · 6:30 am ET · Leave a Comment

Tesla Inc. Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk purchased about $1 billion worth of the carmaker’s shares, Bloomberg reports.

Financial Markets

Document Contradicts Trump’s Claim About Fed Governor

September 12, 2025 · 5:45 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“A loan estimate for an Atlanta home purchased by Lisa Cook, the Federal Reserve governor accused of mortgage fraud by the Trump administration, shows that Cook had declared the property as a “vacation home,’” Reuters reports.

“The document appears to counter other documentation that Cook’s critics have cited in support of their claims that she committed mortgage fraud by reporting two different homes as her primary residence.”

Financial Markets

Trump Asks Court to Allow Firing of Fed Governor

September 11, 2025 · 4:36 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“The Trump administration on Thursday asked a federal appeals court to allow it to move ahead with firing Lisa Cook from the Federal Reserve’s Board of Governors, in an attempt to block her from taking part in the central bank’s meeting on interest rates next week,” the New York Times reports.

Financial Markets

America’s Coming Crash

September 10, 2025 · 11:00 am ET · Leave a Comment

Kenneth Rogoff: “With long-term interest rates up sharply, public debt nearing its post–World War II peak, foreign investors becoming more skittish, and politicians showing little appetite for reining in fresh borrowing, the possibility of a once-in-a-century U.S. debt crisis no longer seems far-fetched.”

“Debt and financial crisis tend to occur precisely when a country’s fiscal situation is already precarious, its interest rates are high, its political situation is paralyzed, and a shock catches policymakers on the back foot. The United States already checks the first three boxes; all that is missing is the shock.”

Financial Markets

Judge Blocks Trump From Removing Fed Governor

September 9, 2025 · 10:31 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“A federal judge late on Tuesday blocked President Trump from removing Lisa Cook from the Federal Reserve Board of Governors while a lawsuit challenging her firing proceeds,” the Wall Street Journal reports.

Financial Markets

Wall Street’s Loudest Trump Critic

September 9, 2025 · 8:30 am ET · Leave a Comment

“Few on Wall Street are willing to publicly lob any criticism at President Trump. Hedge-fund manager Ken Griffin is an exception,” the Wall Street Journal reports.

“The founder and chief executive of investing giant Citadel, who is worth an estimated $50 billion and is among the largest Republican donors, has repeatedly voiced disagreement with Trump’s signature initiatives. Griffin has opined on everything from tariffs to mass deportations to the tax cuts and deficit impacts of the Republicans’ sprawling tax and spending legislation signed into law by Trump.”

Financial Markets

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Taegan Goddard

Taegan Goddard

Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire -- which for more than two decades has been one of the nation's most influential political news sites.

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