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Just dropped · Trial Balloon · Ep. 194

What Just Happened?

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Trial Balloon · Ep. 194: What Just Happened?

Bonus Quote of the Day

April 22, 2025 · 5:27 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“I have no intention of firing him.”

— President Trump, talking to reporters about Fed chairman Jerome Powell.

Financial Markets

Dow Headed for Worst April Since 1932

April 22, 2025 · 6:34 am ET · Leave a Comment

Wall Street Journal: “The Dow Jones Industrial Average shed almost 1,000 points on Monday and is headed for its worst April performance since 1932, according to Dow Jones Market Data. The S&P 500’s performance since Inauguration Day is now the worst for any president up to this point in data going back to 1928, according to Bespoke Investment Group.”

“Worries about trade restrictions and the prospect of President Trump firing Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell have investors bracing for greater losses ahead. Corporate earnings reports are rolling in, along with executives’ tariff-dented outlooks for the months ahead. Few think the administration’s negotiations with trade partners will yield results soon enough to ease the strain.”

Playbook: “History buffs will note 1932 was the year the Smoot–Hawley tariffs began to have their most severe impact, with the Great Depression nearing its peak.”

Financial Markets

The Real Trump Trade Is ‘Sell America’

April 22, 2025 · 6:31 am ET · Leave a Comment

“Two months into Donald Trump’s second term, the pillars of American financial hegemony — erected over the best part of a century — have rarely looked shakier,” Bloomberg reports.

“Trump’s renewed tirades against the Federal Reserve, including the most explicit threats yet to fire Chair Jerome Powell, only amplified the shockwaves from his declaration of trade war on pretty much everyone. It’s forcing a reappraisal of the assets fundamental to US economic dominance. The dollar and Treasury bonds, traditional havens at times of stress, suddenly look much less appealing. It’s not long since investors were anticipating a so-called Trump trade, essentially turbocharging US exceptionalism, but now it looks more like a sell-America trade.”

Economy, Financial Markets

Trade Conflict Threatens America’s Financial Primacy

April 21, 2025 · 12:45 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“Financial markets have flashed an ominous message this month about President Trump’s ambitious and improvisational bid to reshape global trade: Be careful what you wish for,” the Wall Street Journal reports.

“Volatility in Treasury markets and unexpected weakness in the dollar suggest that what began as a trade conflict could morph into a more dangerous ‘capital war.’ The clash threatens to raise U.S. borrowing costs by undermining Washington’s long-standing financial primacy, which for years has drawn trillions of dollars of foreign funds into the country.”

Financial Markets

Gold Prices Hit New Record

April 21, 2025 · 9:30 am ET · Leave a Comment

“Gold prices broke $3,400 on Monday, hitting a new record as President Donald Trump’s threats against the Federal Reserve’s independence and his tariffs shake investor confidence in the U.S. economy,” CNBC reports.

“Gold has jumped about 29% since the start of the year and nearly 8% since Trump unveiled his sweeping tariffs on April 2.”

Financial Markets

Investors Worry About Fed’s Independence

April 21, 2025 · 7:12 am ET · Leave a Comment

“Asian equities and U.S. stock futures slid on Monday as anxiety over tariffs and criticism of the Federal Reserve by President Donald Trump shook investor confidence, pushing the dollar sharply lower and catapulting safe-haven gold to a record high,” Reuters reports.

Financial Markets

Risk of Financial Panic Tempers Trump on Firing Powell

April 18, 2025 · 4:44 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“President Trump this week revived a longstanding threat against Jerome Powell when he accused the Federal Reserve chair of ‘playing politics’ and moving too slowly to lower interest rates,” the New York Times reports.

“But privately, according to people close to Mr. Trump, the president has for months been aware that trying to oust Mr. Powell could inject more volatility into jittery financial markets.”

Financial Markets

Trump and Powell on Collision Course

April 18, 2025 · 5:59 am ET · Leave a Comment

“President Trump is threatening to fire Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell unless he cuts interest rates to cushion the blow from his tariffs,” the Wall Street Journal reports.

“The problem is twofold. It isn’t clear the president has the legal authority to dismiss Powell before his term ends next year. And Trump’s trade war has made rate cuts more difficult for now because the Fed fears acting to shore up the economy could worsen inflation.”

“That tension has left the two men on a collision course without any easy escape—unless Trump backs down on tariffs or until the economy shows signs it is crumpling under the weight of the import duties.”

Financial Markets

Trump Has for Months Privately Discussed Firing Fed Chair

April 17, 2025 · 3:04 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“President Trump has for months privately discussed firing Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, but he hasn’t made a final decision about whether to try to oust him before his term ends next year,” the Wall Street Journal reports.

“In meetings at the president’s private Florida club, Mar-a-Lago, Trump has spoken with Kevin Warsh, a former Fed governor, about potentially firing Powell before his term ends and possibly selecting Warsh to be his replacement.”

Trump told reporters that he has the authority to oust Powell: “If I want him out, he’ll be out of there real fast, believe me.”

Financial Markets

How the Justices Could Weaken Fed Independence

April 17, 2025 · 12:30 pm ET · Leave a Comment

Wall Street Journal: “The court is about to take up a question that, while not directly about the Federal Reserve, could determine whether President Trump can fire the Fed chair.”

“There’s no indication the justices will give the president that authority. And if they did, Trump wouldn’t necessarily sack Jerome Powell, whom he nominated to a term that began in 2018.”

“But granting the president that power would effectively eviscerate the central bank’s independence by making its seven governors, including the chair, at-will appointees of the president, like the Treasury secretary.”

Financial Markets

Quote of the Day

April 17, 2025 · 8:32 am ET · Leave a Comment

“We’re never going to be influenced by any political pressure. People can say whatever they want. That’s fine. That’s not a problem. But we will do what we do. Strictly without consideration of political or any other extraneous factors.”

— Fed Chair Jerome Powell, quoted by Mediaite.

Financial Markets

Trump Says Powell’s Removal ‘Can’t Come Soon Enough’

April 17, 2025 · 7:19 am ET · Leave a Comment

“President Trump blasted Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell on Thursday with the strongest suggestion yet of intentions to try to fire the nation’s most powerful economic policymaker,” Axios reports.

“Trump’s attack comes after Powell said that tariffs were likely to stoke inflation and slow economic growth.”

Politico: “There has long been speculation that Trump would try to remove Powell from his Fed position in what would be significant interference in an institution that has jealously guarded its independence. Powell has previously said that the president doesn’t have the authority to fire him.”

Wall Street Journal: “Trump has previously said he won’t seek to replace Powell before his term expires in May 2026.”

Financial Markets

Wall Street Sours on Donald Trump

April 15, 2025 · 9:24 am ET · Leave a Comment

“Wall Street made a mistake: its titans of finance and business didn’t believe that Donald Trump would really upend U.S. economic policy,” the Financial Times reports.

“During the campaign and transition, they were thrilled about the big tax cuts and lax antitrust enforcement Trump could bring. The price? Some tariffs. But they misread just how far the president would go.”

“He doesn’t care about rattling Wall Street the way he did during his first term. His escalating trade war has planted seeds of distrust and raised fears that financial modelling can’t predict what’s coming… Investors and executives are now dealing with destabilized financial markets as the specter of both higher inflation and a recession loom.”

Said one Wall Street executive: “We didn’t believe him. We assumed that someone in the administration that had an economic background would tell him that global tariffs were a bad idea. We are in for a roller-coaster ride.”

Financial Markets

The Dollar Keeps Falling

April 14, 2025 · 4:51 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“The U.S. dollar extended its slide against other major currencies on Monday, the latest sign that investors may be starting to shun what has long been the safest haven in global financial markets,” the New York Times reports.

Financial Markets

The Global Financial Order Is Trembling

April 12, 2025 · 3:32 pm ET · Leave a Comment

Axios: “The last ten days have thrown into doubt the role of the United States at the core of the global economic and financial system.”

“After generations in which the U.S. dollar and its government securities have been the world’s bedrock safe haven assets, global investors woke up this week to the possibility that they are not particularly safe, and not at all a haven.”

Financial Markets

One of the Wildest Weeks in Market History

April 12, 2025 · 12:47 pm ET · Leave a Comment

Wall Street Journal: “The biggest one-day rally since the financial crisis. The most volatile stretch since the Covid meltdown. A bond selloff that sent yields surging. A steep slide in the dollar. And rattled investors driving gold to new records.”

“Yet one of the most tumultuous weeks in years for financial markets ended with all three major U.S. indexes up 5% or more.”

“For Wall Street, it was a bruising run. Traders described scenes of tension, where the rapid surges and dives made it difficult to determine the prices of various investments. And the sheer violence of the moves left many exhausted and bracing for more trouble ahead.”

Financial Markets

The Crypto Industry’s Political Spending Is Paying Off

April 12, 2025 · 12:45 pm ET · Leave a Comment

New York Times: “Federal lawmakers who benefited from crypto largess in the 2024 election are speedily advancing the industry’s agenda.”

Financial Markets

The Simple Explanation for the Treasury Market Mayhem

April 11, 2025 · 6:56 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“The Treasury market freaked everyone out this week when yields on longer-term debt shot higher even as stocks were being bludgeoned and the dollar fell. Naturally, traders are wondering why,” the Wall Street Journal reports.

“The immediate suspects include somewhat plausible ideas revolving around complex trading strategies employed by hedge funds to conspiracy theories focused on nefarious dealings by foreign governments.”

“But the answer might be far simpler: U.S. government debt is doing badly because, well, investors don’t want to buy it.”

Financial Markets

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Taegan Goddard

Taegan Goddard

Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire -- which for more than two decades has been one of the nation's most influential political news sites.

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