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Just dropped · Trial Balloon · Ep. 194

What Just Happened?

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Trial Balloon · Ep. 194: What Just Happened?

Wall Street Warns Trump Aides About GOP Tax Bill

May 31, 2025 · 9:00 am ET · Leave a Comment

“Wall Street bankers and executives are privately warning the Trump administration that the tax bill moving through Congress could stoke investor anxiety about rising deficits, push up U.S. borrowing costs and damage the broader economy,” the Washington Post reports.

Financial Times: Do Republicans still care about debt?

Budget & Taxes, Financial Markets

Jamie Dimon Predicts ‘Crack in the Bond Market’

May 31, 2025 · 12:08 am ET · Leave a Comment

“JPMorgan Chase Chief Executive Jamie Dimon delivered a dire warning for the markets, predicting a crisis unless the U.S. takes steps to address its spiraling national debt,” the Wall Street Journal reports.

Said Dimon: “You are going to see a crack in the bond market, OK? It is going to happen.”

Financial Markets

Trump Bitcoin Company to Go Public

May 28, 2025 · 6:23 am ET · Leave a Comment

“American Bitcoin, a new bitcoin miner backed by U.S. President Donald Trump’s two eldest sons, said on Monday it will list on the Nasdaq via an all-stock merger with Gryphon Digital Mining,” Reuters reports.

Financial Markets

Stocks Rally on the ‘TACO Trade’

May 27, 2025 · 3:16 pm ET · Leave a Comment

New York Times: “Stock markets jumped on Tuesday, with the S&P 500 posting its biggest gain in weeks. The index rose 2 percent in afternoon trading, which analysts attributed to President Trump’s delaying a proposed 50 percent tariff on the European Union that he had threatened only a few days earlier.”

“They also talked about tacos.”

“Or rather, the ‘TACO’ trade, which is short for Trump Always Chickens Out. The tongue-in-cheek term, coined by a Financial Times columnist, has been adopted by some to describe the pattern in which markets tumble after Mr. Trump makes tariff threats, only to rebound just as sharply when he relents and gives countries more time to negotiate deals.”

Financial Markets

Investors Are Sending a Warning to Congress

May 23, 2025 · 5:00 pm ET · Leave a Comment

Victoria Guida: “As Republicans haggled this week over a tax bill that would add trillions to federal deficits, the long-term cost of financing the national debt surged. That wasn’t a coincidence — it was a warning. And it was as gently as the bond market is going to warn the U.S. that the path of the national debt is a problem…”

“In conversations with investors this week, I heard a new level of focus on the sheer volume of debt that Washington is set to pump out and, in some cases, real concern about how it will play out in markets. It was a shift from the perennial elite conversation, where the consensus has generally been that the debt is a worry, but not an immediate one. … Congress is not known for heeding gentle warnings.”

Financial Markets

Trump’s Trade War De-Escalation Is Over

May 23, 2025 · 4:00 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“With a blast of early morning social media posts Friday, President Trump escalated the trade war that the White House had spent weeks reducing to a low boil,” Axios reports.

“It was a reminder that there will be no permanent trade peace in this administration, only trade war lulls of uncertain duration. That reality could keep financial markets on edge.”

Financial Markets, Foreign Affairs

The ‘Triple B’ Plan

May 22, 2025 · 1:25 pm ET · Leave a Comment

Gillian Tett: “When Republican congressmen first crafted their so-called ‘One Big Beautiful Bill Act’, some of President Donald Trump’s advisers dubbed it the ‘Triple B’ plan in internal meetings for brevity, or so I am told.”

“Future historians might well chuckle at the irony — and/or Trump’s lack of self-awareness. ‘Triple B’, after all, is also the tag that credit ratings groups use to designate the lower threshold of investment grade assets, before they become ‘junk’, with rising default risk.”

Financial Markets

A Collision with the Bond Markets Awaits

May 22, 2025 · 12:08 pm ET · Leave a Comment

The Economist: “Complacent about being the world’s haven, America has been budgeting without any sense of restraint. Over the past year the federal government has borrowed a staggering $2 trillion, or 6.9% of GDP, even though no crisis has drained its coffers. On May 16th Moody’s, a rating agency, stripped the country of its last headline triple-A credit score. Yet on May 22nd the House of Representatives passed, by just one vote, President Donald Trump’s ‘big, beautiful’ budget bill, which cuts taxes and raises deficits. Reflecting the rising fiscal risk, the yield on 30-year Treasuries has risen to 5.1%, the highest since 2007, amid a sell-off.”

“America has more fiscal leeway than other countries, but the Republican Party seems determined to test its limits.”

Josh Barro: Trump is about to learn you can’t spin the bond market.

Financial Markets

Republican Megabill Sends Yields Soaring

May 21, 2025 · 6:15 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“The U.S. debt-and-deficit situation is bad and facing real prospects of getting worse, triggering a high-profile credit rating downgrade from Moody’s and another selling stampede in stocks and bonds,” CNBC reports.

“Whether the recoil in financial markets continues is largely in the hands of policymakers who seem intent on adding to the U.S. fiscal problems in the name of stimulating growth through President Donald Trump’s ‘big, beautiful’ spending bill.”

Bloomberg: Bond market warns Trump, Congress on dangers of swelling deficit.

Financial Markets

Investors Don’t Like Trump’s ‘Big, Beautiful Bill’

May 21, 2025 · 6:55 am ET · Leave a Comment

New York Times: “Tax cuts pushed by the Trump administration are amplifying debt and deficit concerns among bond investors, a powerful group of market players who strongly influence how much it costs for the government to finance its budget. The buying and selling of government debt, known as Treasuries, also influences interest rates on a wide variety of debt extended to American households and businesses, including mortgages, credit cards and car loans.”

“Those investors were already on edge over President Trump’s whipsawing tariff policy. Then this week’s attempt to push through sweeping tax cuts without significantly slashing spending — in what the president has called a ‘big, beautiful bill’ — set off a fresh bout of bond market turmoil.”

Wall Street Journal: Dow futures fall, bonds extend selloff.

Financial Markets

U.S. Fiscal Situation Threatens Good Mood on Wall Street

May 20, 2025 · 5:23 am ET · Leave a Comment

Wall Street Journal: “Investors sold U.S. government bonds and the dollar on Monday, after Moody’s Ratings late last week stripped the U.S. of its last triple-A credit rating, citing large budget deficits and rising interest costs. Adding to the nerves about America’s debt trajectory, the House Budget Committee approved a tax-and-spending bill Sunday that is projected to add trillions of dollars to those deficits.”

“Though stocks ended the session higher, selling pushed up yields on longer-term Treasurys, which rise when bond prices fall. The yield on the 30-year bond briefly topped 5% before settling just below that threshold, still near its highest level of the year.”

Financial Markets

Senate Advances Major Crypto Regulation Bill

May 19, 2025 · 10:01 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“The Senate advanced a major cryptocurrency regulation bill Monday on a bipartisan vote two weeks after every Senate Democrat united to block it,” NBC News reports.

“The procedural vote on the GENIUS Act — which would establish the first regulatory framework for issuers of stablecoins, digital tokens pegged to fiat currencies like the U.S. dollar — was 66-32. Sixteen Democrats voted with the majority of Senate Republicans to advance the bill.”

Financial Markets

Debt Cloud Suddenly Hangs Over Megabill

May 19, 2025 · 8:04 pm ET · Leave a Comment

Politico: “A softening Treasury bond market and surprise downgrade Friday of U.S. creditworthiness are the latest forces weighing on the GOP megabill — an unmistakable nudge to lawmakers that investors are growing increasingly concerned about legislation that could pile trillions of dollars more onto an already staggering national debt.”

“That message is being seen as vindication by some Republicans who have long warned about the nation’s unsustainable fiscal trajectory and who have vowed to seek massive spending cuts as part of the pending legislation.”

Financial Markets

Jamie Dimon Says Tariffs Might Inflict More Pain

May 19, 2025 · 2:41 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon said Monday he didn’t think the full impact of tariffs had passed through to the broader economy and warned that the stock market could slump as companies reckoned with the new costs for goods and supplies,” the Wall Street Journal reports.

Said Dimon: “It’s an extraordinary amount of complacency.”

Economy, Financial Markets

Moody’s Downgrades U.S. Credit Rating

May 16, 2025 · 5:01 pm ET · Leave a Comment

Moody’s downgraded the credit rating of the United States by a notch to “Aa1” from “Aaa”, citing rising debt and interest “that are significantly higher than similarly rated sovereigns,” Reuters reports.

Wall Street Journal: “The move strips the U.S. of its last remaining triple-A credit rating from a major ratings firm, following similar cuts by Fitch Ratings in 2023 and S&P Global Ratings in 2011.”

Financial Markets

Pam Bondi Sold Stock Before Tariff Announcement

May 14, 2025 · 6:15 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“Attorney General Pam Bondi sold between $1 million and $5 million worth of shares of Trump Media the same day that President Donald Trump unveiled bruising new tariffs that caused the stock market to plummet,” ProPublica reports.

“Trump Media, which runs the social media platform Truth Social, fell 13% in the following days, before rebounding.”

Ethics, Financial Markets

Tiny Company Made Big Purchase of Trump Crypto

May 13, 2025 · 11:09 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“A struggling technology company that has ties to China and relies on TikTok made an unusual announcement this week. It had secured funding to buy as much as $300 million of $TRUMP, the so-called memecoin marketed by President Trump,” the New York Times reports.

“The purchase would create clear ethical conflicts, enriching Mr. Trump’s family at the same time that the president tries to reach a deal that would allow TikTok to keep operating in the United States rather than face a congressionally approved ban.”

Financial Markets

GOP Lawmaker Made Millions Trading Around Tariffs

May 13, 2025 · 4:26 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“A freshman Republican congressman made millions of dollars in personal stock trades as financial markets plunged during the days immediately following President Donald Trump’s April 2 ‘Liberation Day’ tariff binge,” NOTUS reports.

“Rep. Jefferson Shreve of Indiana, one of Congress’ wealthiest members, made more than 140 individual stock purchases and sales between April 7 and April 17 — some of them in companies that fall within the jurisdiction of one of his committees, the records indicate.”

“Shreve traded between $3.44 million and $9.45 million worth of stocks in that April period.”

Financial Markets, House of Representatives

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Taegan Goddard

Taegan Goddard

Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire -- which for more than two decades has been one of the nation's most influential political news sites.

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