Political Wire

No Real Path for Ted Cruz

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GOP strategist Alex Castellanos emails with his latest perspective on the Republican presidential race: Ted Cruz is dead, Donald Trump is likely to win, but Marco Rubio still has a shot.

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How the Establishment May Be Killing Rubio

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Since Marco Rubio’s second place finish in South Carolina pushed Jeb Bush out of the race, he’s gained some significant endorsements from GOP establishment figures such as Sen. Dean Heller (R-NV), Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC) and former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty. There’s even a rumored endorsement coming from Mitt Romney.

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Rubio Still Won’t Take On Trump

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Sen. Marco Rubio’s campaign put out a memo over the weekend in an attempt to frame the next two weeks of primaries and caucuses.

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One Way Rubio Could Win

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With Jeb Bush out of the presidential race, Sen. Marco Rubio’s path to the GOP nomination got a little clearer. But he’s still very much an underdog to Donald Trump.

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Why Rubio Was a Big Winner Tonight

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For a guy who hasn’t won anything yet, Sen. Marco Rubio had a very good night. He likely finished in second place in South Carolina, but even if he slips into third it was still a very good night.

The main reason is that Jeb Bush dropped out of the race. Bush was obviously not persuaded by the argument that staying in the race could allow him to play a role in a contested convention. Instead, he got out of the race so he would not be responsible for allowing Donald Trump to win the nomination.

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Why No One Should Drop Out of the GOP Race

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There’s a lot of speculation that Jeb Bush will end his presidential campaign if he doesn’t do well in the South Carolina primary tonight.

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Uncertainty at the End in South Carolina

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For months, the South Carolina polls have show Donald Trump the clear frontrunner in the Republican primary, with Ted Cruz in second and Marco Rubio in a less-certain third place. But two late-breaking polls released yesterday showed a much closer race.

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Setting Expectations in South Carolina

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The New Hampshire primary didn’t winnow the Republican presidential field very much — only Chris Christie and Carly Fiorina left the race — but South Carolina might. It’s hard to overstate how important South Carolina is for so many of the candidates.

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Your South Carolina Primary Cheat Sheet

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The HuffPost Pollster polling averages in South Carolina show Donald Trump way ahead of his rivals with a close battle for second place between Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio.

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Look at How the Republican Party Has Changed

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If someone predicted in 2010 that Gov. Nikki Haley would endorse Sen. Marco Rubio for president as part of a concerted effort to consolidate the Republican establishment, most would have thought the idea was crazy. Back then, Haley and Rubio were leading the rise of the Tea Party that bucked the GOP establishment every chance it got.

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We May Be Surprised in Nevada

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If there’s going to be a surprise election result this weekend it’s likely to be in Nevada where the polling of the Democratic caucuses is sparse and seen as unreliable.

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Two Signs of a Possible Bush Resurgence?

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The Conservative Solutions PAC, which is backing Sen. Marco Rubio in the presidential race, reports a $1.6 million ad buy, according to ProPublica. Much of the money is underwriting a new attack ad against Jeb Bush in South Carolina.

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Why Trump Should Now Be Favored to Win

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For months, we’ve been told that national polls don’t matter during the presidential primary season because there is no national primary. Instead, state polls are more important.

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Control of Senate Will Hinge on Supreme Court Fight

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A brawl over President Obama’s pick to fill the Supreme Court vacancy created by the death of Justice Antonin Scalia is already spilling from the presidential campaign into some of the most hotly contested Senate races.

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Can Google Predict the Primaries?

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Google searches of the presidential candidates in New Hampshire on February 9th corresponded very closely with the voting results of the state’s primary, Bloomberg reports.

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How Republicans Badly Misfired on the Supreme Court

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Imagine if when news of Justice Antonin Scalia’s death broke on Saturday Senate Republicans simply said, “We look forward to working with President Obama once he makes a nomination.”

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An All-or-Nothing Fight for the Supreme Court

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The battle lines are set: President Obama said yesterday that he would make an appointment to fill the Supreme Court vacancy left by Justice Antonin Scalia’s death. Sen. Mitch McConnell, who controls the Senate calendar for confirmation of Obama’s pick, said the next president should make the appointment.

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About Political Wire

Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.

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