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What You May Have Missed

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Sen. Kyrsten Sinema has traded her “D” for an “I”, but it remains unclear how it will affect the next two years on Capitol Hill, and the battle for Senate control in 2024.

Here’s what you may have missed on Political Wire today…

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Is an ‘Independent Caucus’ Possible in the Senate?

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Sen. Kyrsten Sinema’s decision to leave the Democratic party certainly jumbles thing up, though it seems — at least for now — that nothing structural will happen to the 51 to 49 Democratic majority.

However, there are two things that I’m curious about.

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Is Joe Manchin Next to Leave the Democrats?

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Sen. Kyrsten Sinema sent shockwaves through the U.S. Senate this morning with her announcement that she’s leaving the Democratic party.

The decision won’t tip the balance of power in the narrowly-divided chamber — at least not yet. Sinema said she wouldn’t caucus with Republicans. 

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Now McCarthy Needs to Look Over His Shoulder

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Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) is trying to project an air of inevitability – that he will be House speaker no matter how long it takes.

A key part of that strategy is to make sure the rest of the House GOP leadership is behind him — especially House Minority Whip Steve Scalise.

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Is the End of Trump Near?

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Bill Kristol thinks tonight’s Senate runoff in Georgia could be the beginning of the end for Donald Trump.

He speculates that a decisive Herschel Walker (R) loss in the Senate runoff — such as 53% to 47% — will finally force Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) to mobilize Republican donors against Trump.

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What You May Have Missed

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The final votes of the 2022 midterms will be cast tomorrow in Georgia, and Arizona has closed the books on its own November election.

Here’s what you may have missed today on Political Wire…

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51 Senate Seats Is Much More Than 50 Seats

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Democrats will control the U.S. Senate next year no matter what happens in the Georgia U.S. Senate runoff tomorrow.

But if Sen. Raphael Warnock (D) wins re-election, it would make a big difference to Democrats.

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The Week Ahead

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The 2022 midterm elections come to a close on Tuesday with the Georgia Senate runoff, where Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-GA) has the wind at his back.

Though polls still show a tight race, Warnock has led consistently, and early voting data hint at a Warnock win. This is Warnock’s fourth time before the voters for this seat in less than two years, and he led the vote in each of the previous three. Betting markets give Warnock a 90% chance of victory.

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Trump Showed He’s Desperate This Weekend

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Donald Trump called for “termination” of the U.S. Constitution this weekend so that he could be president again.

This outrageous statement reflects the desperation Trump apparently feels as his grip on the Republican party loosens and his legal reckoning in multiple investigations draws closer.

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What You May Have Missed

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Early voting in Georgia is at an end, but an early Democratic presidential primary in neighboring South Carolina may be just beginning.

Here’s what you may have missed on Political Wire today…

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A Very Good Cycle for Incumbents

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Just for members: The latest edition of Inside Elections.

This issue looks at how few incumbents lost re-election across all of the competitive House, Senate, and gubernatorial contests, examines how and where GOP Senate candidates underperformed, and unveils Inside Elections updated Baseline numbers, which measure the partisan performance in each state.

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A Few Thoughts for the End of the Week

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Several readers have asked me to write about Sam Bankman-Fried and the epic collapse of his cryptocurrency exchange FTX.

Since Bankman-Fried was once worth more than $25 billion and became a top Democratic donor — and a secret Republican donor as well — there’s certainly a political angle to the story.

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What You May Have Missed

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Voting continues in Georgia as possible candidates look ahead to 2024, and GOP election denialism could result in a stunning late upset in one open-seat House race.

Here’s what you may have missed on Political Wire today…

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What You May Have Missed

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President Biden and Vice President Harris will step out to The Ellipse tonight for the National Christmas Tree lighting, a festive reminder that time is running short for Congress to complete the work of 2022.

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Biden Challenges His Base

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On the first Labor Day after he took office, President Biden promised to be “the most pro-union President leading the most pro-union administration in American history.”

He did so while crediting organized labor with his 2020 victory: “It’s not hyperbole, it’s a fact!”

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About Political Wire

goddard-bw-snapshotTaegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.

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— Larry Sabato, Center for Politics, University of Virginia

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“Taegan Goddard has a knack for digging out political gems that too often get passed over by the mainstream press, and for delivering the latest electoral developments in a sharp, no frills style that makes his Political Wire an addictive blog habit you don’t want to kick.”

— Arianna Huffington, founder of The Huffington Post

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— Glenn Reynolds, founder of Instapundit

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