“For nearly a decade, MAGA and Donald Trump were synonymous,” Axios reports.
“Today, the movement’s most consequential fights are unfolding beyond the control of its term-limited president — empowering rival factions to shape MAGA in their own image.”
“MAGA entered the year with a sheen of invincibility, riding the high of Trump’s victory and united in his promise of a new ‘Golden Age.’ It’s ending 2025 locked in an existential war over the future of conservatism.”
“Freshman Sen. Bernie Moreno has emerged as a prolific fundraiser for the Senate Republican Conference, becoming one of the top donors to the GOP’s Senate campaign arm in his first year in office,” NOTUS reports.
“Moreno, a staunchly conservative senator who’s closely aligned with President Donald Trump, has raised nearly $4.5 million this year. On top of that, he’s raised $2.6 million for the National Republican Senatorial Committee — the most of any freshman and the second most for a member not in leadership. He’s also participated in the most NRSC events outside of the committee’s chair, Sen. Tim Scott. Moreno has donated the maximum allowed amount to each Republican senator running for reelection and several Republicans running in open and competitive seats.”
Politico: “Turning Point USA wants to be Arizona’s political kingmaker. And two upcoming primary elections could show just how far the organization has reshaped the state GOP in its own image.”
“Turning Point USA is campaigning against two Republican candidates for governor, Karrin Taylor Robson and Rep. David Schweikert, in favor of Rep. Andy Biggs. And it’s actively trying to undermine Gina Swoboda — the Arizona GOP chair running to replace Schweikert in the state’s 1st District — even though Trump endorsed her.”
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CNN: Even as most of the GOP faithful remains squarely behind the president or unwilling to publicly step out of line, the list of those confident enough to defy Trump over policy and politics is growing. It’s a new moment for Trump, who has kept a tight hold over his party for most of the last decade.”
“The stresses and strains of the upcoming midterm election year may show whether the fractures in Trump’s base are truly deepening. That, of course, is far from certain. Yet this group of eight Republicans is notable for how they’ve gone against the grain to openly challenge Trump.”
Julia Azari: “There’s already evidence that Republicans are looking toward the prospect of a post-Trump GOP after 2028. The president is mortal and, more importantly, term-limited. As the first year of his second term comes to a close, it seems worthwhile to look at some potential weaknesses in his hold over the Republican Party.”
“The bitter infighting over antisemitism, free speech and bigotry during Turning Point USA’s annual national conference not only exposed fissures in President Trump’s movement but also laid bare a challenge for his potential successor,” the New York Times reports.
“How would his likely heir apparent handle an explosive debate among Republicans over whether extremists and conspiracy theorists should be embraced or excluded from the conservative coalition?”
“On Sunday, Vice President JD Vance gave an answer, suggesting he was more than willing to forgo imposing any moral red lines.”
Charlie Cook: “These results raise some interesting questions. First, why do Republicans perform better than Democrats in the U.S. House, state Senate, and state House seats in the purple states, even though Democrats do better at the U.S. Senate and gubernatorial level in those seven?”
“Second, why do Republicans win a higher share of state legislative seats in blue states (35 percent of state Senate seats, and 38 percent in state Houses), than Democrats do in red states (23 and 27 percent, respectively)? Republicans also hold majorities in two blue-state legislative chambers (both in New Hampshire). In contrast, Democrats hold no such majorities in red states.”
“My hunch is that these results are the product of decades of Republicans investing far more money in local, county, and state party-building than Democrats, with the Obama years a key period when his party could and should have done much more. Indeed, the last time Democrats made down-ballot party-building a priority was during the years 2005-2009, when Howard Dean chaired the Democratic National Committee.”
“Despite President Donald Trump’s claims to be a champion for American workers, the GOP under Trump isn’t coalescing around a labor agenda,” NOTUS reports.
“Trump’s first year in office is ending with a growing rift in his party over how to address affordability and a bipartisan rebuke of the administration’s move to end collective bargaining for federal workers.”
New York Times: “In Congress and across the conservative media sphere, cracks within the president’s MAGA movement have appeared on issue after issue, including the Epstein files, military action in Venezuela, health care, tariffs — and redistricting.”
“In Indiana, Mr. Trump unloaded his full arsenal of persuasion tactics on Republicans. When his charm offensive failed, he turned to his familiar methods, unleashing bombastic attacks on lawmakers and threatening to support primary challengers.”
“Several Republican legislators also faced anonymous bomb threats and swatting of their homes. Through it all, they held firm.”
“MAGA’s media machine is ripping itself to shreds, locked in a web of interpersonal feuds that have derailed its once-relentless focus on advancing President Trump’s agenda,” Axios reports.
“The MAGA movement spent years perfecting the art of attacking outsiders. Now, less than a year into Trump’s second term, its most prominent voices are attacking each other with a fury normally reserved for the left.”
“The honeymoon period of the second Trump administration has given way to a new phase where elected Republicans have grown emboldened to defy the president and push back on his administration,” Axios reports.
“As Trump approval numbers sag and concerns grow over the 2026 midterms outlook, Republicans are fending for themselves and stepping out of line from their party leaders.”
“First a Democratic gerrymander pushed California House Republicans to the brink of extinction. Now they’re fighting each other for scraps,” Politico reports.
“In a state where Republicans had long counted on congressional races to exert some influence in Washington, just four of California’s 52 House seats are now safe for the GOP. And a decades-long slide for the party has reached a new nadir as Republicans surveying the landscape use words like ‘demoralized,’ ‘massacred’ and ‘obliteration.'”
Erick Erickson: “The elites and the experts deserve a lot of blame for people distrusting them, disregarding them, and discrediting them. But we’ve traded experts trained in a field of study for experts who learned everything they know from Twitter. We’ve gone from the elite of Harvard Yard to repeat residents of a Holiday Inn Express.”
“And it is starting to show, less than a year into the Trump Administration.”
“A new Trump-aligned online fundraising platform has emerged, and is poised to upend the Republican Party’s massive cash ecosystem,” Axios reports.
“The new platform — called Impact — will clash with the party’s dominant small-dollar fundraising partner, WinRed, for supremacy over the GOP gold mine.”
“Republicans are showing signs of picking their battles against President Trump, with the administration’s handling of military strikes on alleged drug boats in the Caribbean serving as the latest catalyst,” NewsNation reports.
“Republicans in Congress have been exceedingly deferential to the White House for much of Trump’s first year back in office, but lawmakers have shown an increased willingness to speak out about their concerns with the administration, particularly when it comes to foreign policy.”
“MAGA entered the year at the apex of its power, but has become mired in its most bitter infighting since its founding by President Trump in 2015,” Axios reports.
“If the base can unite during the holidays against its perceived enemies — Democratic lawmakers branded ‘the seditious six,’ former FBI Director James Comey, the media — it might help the right turn a painful page.”
“If not, the turmoil could become a systemic problem that plagues MAGA through the midterms.”
Politico: How Trump’s base could break.
Politico Poll: “More than half of Trump’s voters last year — 55% — describe themselves as MAGA, but a critical 38% do not, according to the survey.”
“And it’s here where the fissures start to emerge: Among those self-described MAGA voters, 47% say the current economy still belongs fully to Biden, compared to just 26% of non-MAGA Trump 2024 voters.”
“This divide becomes even starker on areas Republicans typically don’t own, like health care, where the White House is struggling to forge a path to extend expiring Affordable Care Act subsidies: 85% of MAGA Trump voters trust Republicans more to bring down health care costs, whereas just 55 percent of non-MAGA do — with 19% instead trusting Democrats and 27% saying they don’t know.”
Tucker Carlson leveled a scorched earth attack on the Republican Party on The Shawn Ryan Show and went so far as to declare: “I’m going to have to oppose it because I hate them too much.”
He added: “That is the argument right now. Does the Republican Party exist to help its voters? Does every voter actually, every citizen, or does it exist for some other boutique corrupt reason, like serving a foreign government, serving your donors?”
“For years, Jewish Republicans often denied that the right had a serious problem with antisemitism, pointing instead to anti-Jewish bigotry on the left and celebrating President Trump’s support for Israel,” the New York Times reports.
“But now that problem is staring them directly in the face.”
“Tensions over antisemitism in the party, free speech and Israel have burst to the forefront of G.O.P. politics, and show signs of becoming a fierce point of contention in 2026 primary races and beyond.”
Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.
Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.
Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.
Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.
Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.
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