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Just dropped · Trial Balloon · Ep. 195

Shake Up

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Trial Balloon · Ep. 195: Shake Up

The GOP’s Knives Are Already Out — For Each Other

October 19, 2026 · 6:56 am ET · Leave a Comment

“Republicans are already starting to blame each other as the midterm election spirals further out of their control,” Politico reports.

“Everyone is bracing for President Donald Trump’s ire if the party loses big in November. House Republicans are planning to accuse the Senate side. Trump political aides have taken to directly calling campaigns they feel aren’t performing well enough. National GOP operatives are quietly furious at lackluster candidates who didn’t do enough to prepare for a tough year despite early warnings. And some GOP candidates are pointing the finger back at their own party committees.”

2026 Campaign, Republicans

Some MAHA Voters Question Their GOP Ties

October 19, 2026 · 5:40 am ET · Leave a Comment

New York Times: “While it’s difficult to pinpoint the number of MAHA supporters who are pulling their support from the Republican Party, nearly 70 percent of rural supporters of the movement said the Trump administration’s policies have had an adverse effect or no impact on the health of people where they live, according to a KFF and A.P. poll earlier this year focused on the midterms.”

“The driving forces behind the MAHA movement are people seeking to be healthier and looking to remove harmful substances in food, the poll found.”

2026 Campaign, Republicans

Thune Enjoys Surprisingly Clear Path Back to GOP Leader

October 16, 2026 · 6:50 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“John Thune took criticism from President Donald Trump, agitated online conservatives, and occasionally frustrated some of his own members this year,” Semafor reports.

“Yet his next leadership election is looking smooth compared with the past couple of bouts to lead the Senate GOP. In fact, Thune may actually run unopposed this year, regardless of how the midterms go.”

Republicans, Senate

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Elon Musk Is Almost Single-Handedly Funding the GOP

October 16, 2026 · 6:10 pm ET · Leave a Comment

Wired: “Elon Musk has assembled a presidential-level field operation this midterm cycle, underscoring the extent to which he has taken over the get-out-the-vote effort for the Republican party.”

Republicans

Prominent Republicans Are Endorsing Democrats in 2026

October 16, 2026 · 6:54 am ET · Leave a Comment

CNN: “In 2010, Ken Buck rode the tea party wave to win Colorado’s Republican Senate nomination but proved too conservative for the state’s general-election voters.”

“In 2022, Don Bolduc rode a similar arc in the New Hampshire Senate race as an election-denier who spouted a conspiracy theory about Bill Gates and vaccines.”

“This week, both Buck and Bolduc endorsed Democrats for major statewide offices in their respective states. Buck backed Democratic state Attorney General Phil Weiser for Colorado governor, while Bolduc backed Rep. Chris Pappas for Senate in New Hampshire.”

2026 Campaign, Republicans

Republicans Doubt Their Big Lame-Duck Ambitions Pan Out

October 13, 2026 · 5:51 am ET · Leave a Comment

“Republicans have had to defer many of their legislative dreams, hoping the post-election release of political pressure could set up a productive ‘lame duck’ session before a new Congress is seated,” Politico reports.

”Fat chance, many GOP lawmakers now say.”

“Beyond the uncertainties surrounding the midterms and a potential transition of power on Capitol Hill, members will return to Washington facing a considerable list of must-pass bipartisan bills but also potentially messy internal leadership fights, a foul national mood and a mere 24 legislative days to get anything done.”

2026 Campaign, Republicans

Trump’s Russian Diesel Deal Divides Republicans

October 12, 2026 · 1:41 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“Republicans already saddled with Trump’s unpopular policies in the midterms now face another awkward choice: whether to back his diesel deal with a dictator many of them despise,” Axios reports.

“The agreement President Trump struck with Russian President Vladimir Putin Friday is designed to ease the cost of living for U.S. consumers. But Republicans who pleaded for help with fuel prices now face a fresh dispute over Russia, with energy analysts questioning whether the deal will deliver the relief Trump is promising.”

“With three weeks until Election Day, Republicans are trying to answer voter anger while keeping up with a president whose proposed fixes keep becoming political liabilities of their own.”

2026 Campaign, Foreign Affairs, Republicans

Can $1 Billion Power Republicans to Victory?

October 12, 2026 · 12:40 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“Republicans are entering the final month of the midterm campaign increasingly anxious that the $1 billion at their disposal may not be enough to fend off sweeping losses as the party reckons with President Donald Trump’s unpopularity, persistent cost concerns and the fallout from the war in Iran,” the Chicago Tribube reports.

“The cash advantage, spread out across a half-dozen groups, is driven largely by the Trump-aligned MAGA Inc. which had nearly $416 million in cash on hand at the end of August and began stepping up its spending on critical races in September.”

“But that money may have come too late, forcing the president’s group to pay much higher rates because of the shrinking availability of air time.”

2026 Campaign, Campaign Finance, Republicans

GOP Scrambles to Stop Steep Midterm Losses

October 12, 2026 · 5:12 am ET · Leave a Comment

“The Republican Party’s midterm campaign has turned into a triage operation just three weeks out from November, as officials race to avert losses in a string of once-safe seats that they increasingly fear could cost them total control of Congress,” CNN reports.

“The worsening landscape has alarmed GOP operatives across several battleground states, forcing the party to pour resources into traditionally red districts and states at the expense of their once-expansive ambitions in Democratic areas.”

“And after months of pressing President Donald Trump to ramp up his travel on behalf of key candidates, some Republicans now worry he’s grown so unpopular that his presence on the campaign trail may in some cases be doing more harm than good.”

2018 Campaign, Republicans

Voters Frustrated with Trump’s Agenda Blame the GOP

October 11, 2026 · 6:32 am ET · Leave a Comment

Ron Brownstein: “Of all the dynamics threatening the GOP this year, the most menacing may be the unusually direct connection voters are drawing between their economic frustrations and the policies that President Donald Trump and congressional Republicans have implemented.”

“Presidents always suffer from proximity when Americans are discontented about the economy. But this year, Trump faces an additional level of vulnerability. A significant majority of voters consistently say in polls that they believe his policies — particularly surrounding tariffs and the Iran war — are exacerbating the problem that most concerns them: the high cost of living.”

2026 Campaign, Republicans

The GOP’s Message to Immigrants

October 9, 2026 · 11:03 am ET · Leave a Comment

Adam Serwer: “Only a few decades ago, Republican presidents would happily evoke the idea of America as a haven for people around the world. Ronald Reagan, in his farewell speech, declared that ‘anyone, from any corner of the Earth, can come to live in America and become an American.’ Reagan was no paragon of racial tolerance—he opposed the civil-rights movement and privately referred to Black people as ‘monkeys’—but he did not regard the presence of nonwhite people as an existential threat to America.”

“For years the Republican Party insisted that what it wanted was a certain kind of immigrant—highly skilled people who came here legally, or even, not that long ago, those brought to the U.S. as children who lacked status through no fault of their own and had long since assimilated.”

“That Republican Party no longer exists. Today the GOP’s view is that almost all immigration—by which the Trump administration seems to mean nonwhite immigration, euphemistically referred to as ‘Third World’ immigration—is bad.”

Immigration, Republicans

Paxton Leaks Prompt Republican Handwringing

October 8, 2026 · 4:23 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“Three is a trend, and the leaks about Texas Senate nominee Ken Paxton’s campaign have more than hit that threshold,” Semafor reports.

“On Thursday the Texas Tribune published audio of Paxton saying the U.S. needs to ‘suck it up’ and cut federal programs, more drips from the same fundraiser that elicited Paxton’s complaints about gas prices, lack of control over his own campaign, and the Republican midterm convention depressing his numbers.”

Said Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX): “Got to be more careful when you run with the big dogs.”

2026 Campaign, Republicans

Trump Made It Hard for Republicans to Bank Votes Early

October 8, 2026 · 12:18 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“If Republicans hope to limit the damage in the midterm elections, they need their most die-hard voters to cast ballots,” MS NOW reports.

“The problem: President Donald Trump has spent years persuading them to distrust one of the best ways to make sure that happens — voting by mail…”

“Banking votes cannot solve an enthusiasm gap on its own. But it gives a campaign more time to narrow one. Once the most reliable supporters have cast a ballot, field operatives can focus their dwindling resources on the less certain voters.”

2026 Campaign, Republicans

Bonus Quote of the Day

October 8, 2026 · 8:03 am ET · Leave a Comment

“If your top political advisors are not paying attention to the midterms and instead are paying attention to taking money off the table in a foreign country, that seems to indicate to me that they’ve moved on from Donald Trump as their top priority, and I think you’re going to see a lot of that.”

— Former Gov. Chris Christie (R), quoted by Politico.

2028 Campaign, Republicans

Palm Beach GOP Pulls Support for Accused Molestor

October 6, 2026 · 7:00 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“At long last, the Palm Beach County GOP has finally pulled its support for a Florida candidate accused of sexually abusing a child,” MS NOW reports.

“Palm Beach Republicans have been under pressure over their continued association with Mike Caruso, who was serving as the county’s clerk of the circuit court and comptroller before his August arrest on charges including kidnapping, molestation and child abuse.”

Republicans, State House

Another Bonus Quote of the Day

October 6, 2026 · 2:12 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“I think the key over the next 34 days is bringing home Republicans. And I think it’s important to remind some of these Republicans who are not energized yet that the Supreme Court’s on the ballot.”

— Sen. Steve Daines (R-MT), quoted by Fox News.

Republicans, Senate

Republicans in Safe Red States Are Breaking with Trump

October 5, 2026 · 5:49 am ET · Leave a Comment

“It’s not just vulnerable Republicans in swing districts distancing themselves from their party leader,” the Washington Sun reports.

“As President Donald Trump travels the country touting the ‘greatest’ American economy in history, even senators in safe red states are beginning to push back on his rhetoric and policies.”

Republicans, Senate

Is Jim Jordan Running for GOP Leader?

October 5, 2026 · 5:16 am ET · Leave a Comment

Punchbowl News: “Let’s dispense with the mealy-mouthed campaign-season niceties.”

”Ohio Rep. Jim Jordan is very likely to run for GOP leader if House Republicans lose the majority.”

”Jordan won’t admit it publicly, but his inner circle of aides, advisers and friends is plotting for a leadership election, and he’s discussed it with people close to him.”

House of Representatives, Republicans

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Taegan Goddard

Taegan Goddard

Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire -- which for more than two decades has been one of the nation's most influential political news sites.

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