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Just dropped · Trial Balloon · Ep. 191

Blue Wave Update

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Trial Balloon · Ep. 191: Blue Wave Update

Leading While Campaigning Less

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A New York Times analysis of how top-tier Republicans seeking the White House spent November reveals that a strenuous itinerary does not necessarily translate to robust poll numbers.

“Jeb Bush, whose failure to connect with voters might normally suggest a lack of effort, logged an impressive 50 public events or fund-raisers in November, sometimes touching down in three states in a single day. But it is Mr. Trump, whose Twitter-fueled, television interview-heavy campaign is upending the conventional approach to running for president, with the travel log that seems so inversely related to his success.”

McConnell Issues Warning on Trade Deal

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Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) “dealt a significant blow” to President Obama’s trade agenda, “declaring that a sweeping pact with 11 Pacific Rim nations should not be sent to Congress for approval until after the 2016 elections — and maybe not until after Obama leaves office,” the Washington Post reports.

Said McConnell: “Yeah, I think it would be a big mistake to send it up before the election.”

Washington Post: “McConnell’s comments should serve as a reality-check antidote to optimism that has come out of the White House on issues like criminal justice reform and from Speaker Paul Ryan, who dreams of passing a bunch of big-ticket items to demonstrate that Republicans can govern.”

Democrats No Longer Laughing at Trump

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New York Times: “At a town hall here on Wednesday, Mrs. Clinton delivered her most damning, direct criticism of Mr. Trump, saying that he traffics ‘in prejudice and paranoia,’ and that his Muslim proposal was ‘not only shameful, it’s dangerous.'”

“The remarks bore little resemblance to Mrs. Clinton’s previous dismissals of Mr. Trump, She had portrayed him as a reality television sideshow who voiced more extreme terms beliefs that, she contended, his more serious G.O.P. rivals shared.”

Attacks on Trump Make Supporters Like Him More

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The Washington Post covered a focus group run by Frank Luntz:

“Over three hours in Alexandria, Luntz lobbed dozens of Trump-seeking missiles. All 29 in the group had voted for Mitt Romney in 2012. All either supported Trump, or had supported him earlier in the year. To Luntz’s amazement, hearing negative information about the candidate made the voters, only a few of whom gave their full names to the press, hug the candidate tighter.”

GOP Preparing for Contested Convention

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Republican officials “are now preparing for the possibility of a brokered convention as Donald Trump continues sit atop the polls and the presidential race,” the Washington Post reports.

“More than 20 of them convened Monday for a dinner held by Republican National Committee Chairman Reince Priebus, where the prospect of Trump nearing next year’s nominating convention in Cleveland with a significant number of delegates dominated the discussion… Considering that scenario as Priebus and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) listened, several longtime power brokers argued that if the controversial billionaire storms through the primaries, the party’s establishment must lay the groundwork for a floor fight, in which the GOP’s mainstream wing could coalesce around an alternative, the people said.”

The Trump Effect

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Larry Sabato: “The Trump effect is now probably long-term, meaning that even if he falls by the wayside in the nomination contest, he will continue to be a factor. Maybe he will run as an independent. Maybe he will make life difficult for the eventual GOP nominee from his permanent headquarters on Twitter. Or maybe it’s simply the accumulation of his offensive statements on videotape that will be used by Democrats to taint the fall Republican ticket.”

Gaming Out Iowa and the GOP Nomination

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This piece is only available to Political Wire members.

With 53 days until the first voting starts in Iowa, it appears the GOP race is coming down to three candidates: Donald Trump, Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio. The HuffPost Pollster averages show all three gaining ground in Iowa with the rest of the field fading. It’s possible that one or more may yet stumble, but each is currently the clear frontrunner in their respective “lanes” to the nomination.

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The GOP vs. Trump

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Matt Bai: “The interesting question is what happens from here, because the way I see it, the cold war between Trump and the Republican governing establishment, which everyone hoped throughout the summer and fall might just resolve itself, has now become a zero-sum contest. And Republicans find themselves faced with an existential threat that has no parallel for either party in my lifetime.”

“Either Trump or the Republican Party as we’ve known it can come out of this election without having been politically destroyed — but almost certainly not both.”

Emanuel Apologizes for Police Cover Up

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Fighting for his political life, Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel (D) apologized for the “systematic breakdown” that culminated in the “totally avoidable” police shooting of Laquan McDonald and acknowledged the “code of silence” in the Chicago Police Department he once tried to keep out of a court record, the Chicago Sun Times reports.

“The cathartic speech before aldermen, who offered their own apology, did nothing to silence demands for Emanuel’s resignation.”

Cruz Questions Trump’s Judgment

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Sen. Ted Cruz raised questions at a private fund-raiser about whether Donald Trump has the “judgment” to be president, the New York Times reports.

“Mr. Cruz has been notable in a field that has grappled with how to handle Mr. Trump for his refusal to publicly criticize his opponent. Mr. Cruz and his team, who covet Mr. Trump’s supporters, are also keenly aware of the searing criticisms that Mr. Trump has lobbed at rivals who went after him. Those attacks have precipitated a decline in some of their standings in the polls.”

Young Voters Prefer Trump and Sanders

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A new Harvard Institute of Politics poll of 18- to 29- year-olds finds Donald Trump as young Republicans’ first choice in their party’s presidential primary – and young Democrats giving the edge to Bernie Sanders over Hillary Clinton, 42% to 35%, as the top selection in their presidential primary.

Overall, a majority (56%) of young people prefer a Democrat win the 2016 campaign for president over a Republican.

Trump Opened the Door for Cruz to Win

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Jonathan Chait: “Rubio is the candidate who laid his credibility on the line in order to resolve the party’s immigration problem in 2013. (While he failed, and abandoned his own proposal, pro-reform Republicans have every reason to believe his heart lies with them.) Trump is the candidate whose inflammatory racism would brand the GOP as irrevocably hostile to immigrant communities. Cruz lies in between, not having sponsored major pro-reform legislation, but also having steered clear of crude Trumpist demagoguery (and, like Rubio, having a Cuban-American background to fall back upon).”

“Cruz may find himself best positioned to bridge the gap, and well positioned to win a three-way race divided along these lines. Should Trump falter, pro-Trump border hawks would probably prefer Cruz to Rubio, who tried to shepherd immigration reform through the Senate. And should Rubio falter, Rubio’s supporters would find Cruz a more predictable and disciplined Republican partisan than the erratic Trump.”

The Hill: Nightmare scenario for the GOP Establishment: Trump or Cruz

Taegan Goddard

Taegan Goddard

Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire -- which for more than two decades has been one of the nation's most influential political news sites.

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