“It’s been a pretty amazing year, no question about it. Highs and lows. Obviously, going through a process like this is pretty brutal. Everybody told me that it would be, so that doesn’t particularly surprise me.”
— Ben Carson, in an interview with the Washington Post.
MSNBC: “While the Democratic race largely fell into line with early expectations – Hillary Clinton fending off a challenge from the left – the Republican primary has been chaos from its first moments. It feels like every time polls, fundraising, and news coverage start to point one direction, things swerve in another: Front-runners turn into underdogs and then disappear entirely; candidates branded as novelties turn into political powerhouses; and broad theories of how modern American politics work are tested to their limits.”
“We compiled a sampling of once-popular assumptions about the GOP race that have been overtaken by events in 2015. As you might expect, one candidate in particular tends to dominate the list.”
Reuters: “An independent computer security researcher uncovered a database of information on 191 million voters that is exposed on the open Internet due to an incorrectly configured database… The database includes names, addresses, birth dates, party affiliations, phone numbers and emails of voters in all 50 U.S. states and Washington.”
Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball presents 48 maps electoral maps from 1824 to 2012.
“Throughout American history, electoral coalitions have been born with fanfare. Then they age and die just like their founders, replaced by some other temporary alignment. Some majorities are flash-in-the-pan but others, like the New Deal coalition, survive for decades, deteriorating only gradually. It will be interesting to see whether the newest in the long line, the Obama majority, continues, dies, or goes into hibernation next year.”
Reuters reports that Pentagon officials “have been throwing up bureaucratic obstacles to thwart the president’s plan to close Guantanamo. Partly as a result of the Pentagon’s maneuvers, it is increasingly doubtful that Obama will fulfill a pledge he made to close the detention center at the U.S. Naval Base at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba.”
Donald Trump slammed the Republican Party of Virginia for its plan to require that 2016 primary voters sign a statement confirming they are Republicans, the Washington Post reports.
“Trump and others say the requirement could discourage independent and first-time voters from casting primary ballots in Virginia, where primaries are open to all registered voters. According to some experts, the voter pledge has the potential to hurt Trump in particular, because his unorthodox candidacy has attracted voters disenchanted with traditional party politics.”
Donald Trump told ABC News that he had no idea he would sustain such a dramatic lead over his rivals for the GOP presidential nomination.
Said Trump: “It’s a very, very big lead, so I didn’t think that we would have that.”
He added: “I am winning. I am beating everybody and, in my opinion, beating Hillary is easier than beating these people.”
Stephen Colbert says Donald Trump is playing his old character better than he ever could, The Hill reports.
Said Colbert: “He’s completely playing on an emotional level – and so beautifully. I mean, it’s one of the reasons why I just can’t do that old character anymore, because he’s doing it better than I ever could, because he’s willing to drink his own Kool Aid and manufacture and distribute it, because he’s got all the cash.”
He added: “I’m not the first person to say this, but I completely agree that he’s my old character with $10 billion.”
“I’m just hoping that as we go forward he’s going to be a unifier. Because I’m going to tell you, you can’t win the White House without winning Ohio. If we have a candidate that comes into Ohio who is a divider, there’s no chance they’re going to win it.”
— Gov. John Kasich, quoted by The Hill, noting that Donald Trump has “toned down the rhetoric” lately.
New York Times: “Since the release last month of video showing a white Chicago police officer firing 16 shots into a black teenager named Laquan McDonald, Mr. Emanuel has been a mayor under siege. A debate over race and policing has swept through many cities this year, but its arrival here has pointed an especially strong spotlight on City Hall. And the fatal shooting of two people by the police Saturday morning, one of them a 19-year-old man with possible mental health problems and the other a 55-year-old bystander, intensified the scrutiny.”
“Even before this, Mr. Emanuel had a complicated, uncertain relationship with some of Chicago’s black residents over the closing of nearly 50 schools and a struggle to slow gang-related gun violence. Those issues helped force him into a difficult runoff election this year as he sought a second term as mayor.”
GQ named Emanuel to its list of “The Worst People of 2015.”
“I think that Donald Trump or any candidate on the other side of the aisle would raise Bill Clinton as somehow a negative to their peril.”
— DNC Chair Debbe Wasserman Schultz (D-FL), in an interview with NBC News.
Politico: “Forget Iowa, which Cruz appears to be locking up. It’s New Hampshire that will cull this field. And with Christie, Bush and John Kasich making this first primary state the singular focus of their campaigns, and Rubio, should he lose Iowa, needing a top-tier finish, the fight to be the mainstream alternative to Cruz or Trump could end here.”
“If Trump wins the Feb. 9 primary a week after Cruz wins Iowa, only one or two candidates finishing behind him will likely have the momentum to carry on. If four or even five candidates split the vote of an establishment electorate that never coalesces behind one standard bearer, there may be only hollow victories to declare on primary night because none will have the firepower to challenge Cruz or Trump in South Carolina.”
For members: A four-way battle for the GOP establishment
Wall Street Journal: “The gap between his reputation in Washington and his reception among primary voters isn’t a paradox. It is central to his campaign strategy.”
“With the GOP electorate riddled with disdain for the political establishment, Mr. Cruz relishes his reputation as the bad boy of the Senate, where he has dragged his party into a government-shuttering budget fight and defied party leaders ever since arriving on Capitol Hill in 2013.”
Washington Post: “Trump’s unexpected and sustained popularity has, at least in part, been fueled by his appeal to a voting bloc that seems to be emerging: blue-collar workers without college degrees who are slightly younger than the traditional Republican voter. Many say they haven’t cared about politics until now, as they flock to Trump rallies like groupies to a rock concert, read his books, buy his products, quote his jokes and follow his social-media accounts.”
“But is their devotion to Trump deep enough to vote? For those who don’t regularly vote in primaries, doing so for the first time is a hurdle — especially in Iowa, which uses a caucus system that can intimidate first-timers.”
Bernie Sanders said he believes “he can win over supporters of Republican front-runner Donald Trump, explaining that Trump has been successful at channeling working-class anger,” Politico reports.
Said Sanders: “What Trump has done with some success is taken that anger, taken those fears, which are legitimate, and converted them into anger against Mexicans, anger against Muslims.”
Jeb Bush and his super PAC “are set to dominate the TV airwaves between now and the Granite State primary, reserving more than $14 million in commercials on both New Hampshire and Boston stations — including two Super Bowl spots,” the Boston Herald reports.
“It’s a clear sign that Bush operatives, despite criticism over already spending more than $35 million nationally on commercials for just 4 percent in the polls, are doubling down on a strategy of massive TV buys.”
Politico: “According to people in the White House, Obama doesn’t talk about Trump much. When he does, it’s with a combination of amusement and disgust at the rhetoric, occasionally mentioning his amazement at GOP leaders’ inability to understand Trump’s supporters and the long-term damage the president thinks Trump is doing to the party with the groups of voters who will decide future elections.”
“But it’s more than told-ya-so. It’s personal. The West Wing still burns over Trump leading the birth certificate charge in 2012, forcing an official rebuttal from the White House and the release of the president’s long-form birth certificate. Aides say Trump played into fears and racism and encouraged voter distrust of the president, as he’s doing now on the campaign trail.”
Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.
Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.
Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.
Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.
Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.