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Blue Wave Update

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Trial Balloon · Ep. 191: Blue Wave Update

GOP Rift Opens Over Medicaid and Obamacare

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New York Times: “In state after state, a gulf is opening between Republican governors willing to expand Medicaid coverage through the Affordable Care Act and Republican members of Congress convinced the law is collapsing and determined to help it fail. In recent months, insurers have increased premiums and deductibles for many policies sold online, and a dozen nonprofit insurance co-ops are shutting down, forcing consumers to seek other coverage.”

“But in Arizona, Arkansas, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, New Jersey, Nevada and Ohio, Republican governors have expanded Medicaid under the health care law or defended past expansions. In South Dakota, Tennessee and Utah, Republican governors are pressing for wider Medicaid coverage. And Republican governors in a few other states, including Alabama, have indicated that they are looking anew at their options after rejecting the idea in the past.”

Kasich Pledges Redistricting Reform

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Gov. John Kasich told the Columbus Dispatch that he will push to change the way Ohio draws congressional districts.

Said Kasich: “I support redistricting reform dramatically. This will be something I’m going to do whether I’m elected president or whether I’m here. We carve these safe districts, and then when you’re in a safe district you have to watch your extremes, and you keep moving to the extremes.”

Gowdy to Endorse Rubio

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Rep. Trey Gowdy (R-SC) is expected to endorse Sen. Marco Rubio for president when he campaigns with him in Iowa next week, Townhall.com reports.

The influential South Carolina lawmaker will attend town hall rallies on Tuesday and Wednesday during Rubio’s three-day tour through the important caucus state.

Trump Takes Credit for Deportation Plan

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Donald Trump “is taking credit for the Obama administration’s reported plans to step up deportations of families early next year, and claimed Saturday that ‘criminal deportations’ are at their lowest number in years,” CNN reports.

The Washington Post reported “that the nationwide raids will focus on hundreds of families that have entered the United States since early last year. The plan is the first large-scale effort to deport families that have fled violence in Central America.”

Christie Exaggerates Role in Fighting Terrorism

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New York Times: “A close examination of Mr. Christie’s record as New Jersey’s top federal prosecutor from 2002 to 2008 shows that he did acquire greater counterterrorism experience than his current rivals. But it also shows that he has, at times, overstated the significance of the terrorism prosecutions he oversaw — he has called them ‘two of the biggest terrorism cases in the world’ — and appears to have exaggerated his personal role in obtaining court permission for surveillance of terrorism suspects.”

Quote of the Day

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“So when I tell him things like, ‘You’re the governor now, grow up and act like it,’ I’m not being flippant. What I’m really saying is you really need to show your maturity … you can’t be flippant, because people don’t take it the right way. They expect out of the governor something more.”

— Karen Kasich, quoted by the Columbus Dispatch, on her husband, Ohio Gov. John Kasich.

An Explosion of Polls

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“The number of polls of Republican voters in the first three primary and caucus states — Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina — has skyrocketed nearly 90 percent compared with the 2012 GOP primary,”: according to a Boston Globe review of polls.

“The trend toward saturation polling shows little sign of abating, with online polls now cheaper than ever and polling firms and universities competing to satisfy an insatiable media appetite for the latest upticks and downturns, the trends in the minute-by-minute drama of the contest.”

It’s Not Just Trump

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Politico: “After five Republican debates, most Americans know about Donald Trump’s provocative beliefs, like his desires to end birthright citizenship, stop Muslim immigration and kill families of suspected terrorists. Much less attention has been paid to Carly Fiorina’s conclusion that the minimum wage is unconstitutional, Mike Huckabee’s pledge to defy Supreme Court rulings he deems incompatible with God’s law, Rick Santorum’s claim that Islam is not protected by the First Amendment or Chris Christie’s threat to shoot down Russian planes and launch cyberattacks on Chinese leaders.”

“Those provocative beliefs, believe it or not, were also expressed during the five Republican debates. They were just overshadowed by the furor over Trump.”

A New Liberal Era Is Beginning

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Peter Beinhart: “That doesn’t mean the Republicans won’t retain strength in the nation’s statehouses and in Congress. It doesn’t mean a Republican won’t sooner or later claim the White House. It means that on domestic policy—foreign policy is following a different trajectory, as it often does—the terms of the national debate will continue tilting to the left. The next Democratic president will be more liberal than Barack Obama. The next Republican president will be more liberal than George W. Bush.”

“In the late ’60s and ’70s, amid left-wing militancy and racial strife, a liberal era ended. Today, amid left-wing militancy and racial strife, a liberal era is only just beginning.”

Ben Carson Pulls In Big Bucks on the Side

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Politico: “He has folded into Carson Enterprises his presidential campaign, which has excelled at fundraising, bringing in almost $32 million through the end of September — more than any other 2016 Republican candidate. That fundraising prowess continues, even as his poll numbers decline. His campaign manager Barry Bennett said Thursday they raised about $20 million since the beginning of October, matching their extraordinary summertime pace. Speaking fees over a nearly two-year period raked in $4.3 million. And his nonprofit continues to raise money.”

“It’s hard to see where one Carson stops and another begins… These blurred lines are significant. Since he declared his candidacy, Carson has traveled the country for his campaign, to promote his new book, to attend events for his charity and to give paid speeches.”

Bush, Kasich and Christie Bet All on New Hampshire

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Los Angeles Times: “Indeed, New Hampshire, which traditionally holds the first presidential primary, has a history of unpredictability, resurrecting candidates given up for dead, spurning front-runners or elevating also-rans with late-developing shifts in sentiment. This time, the three contenders with the most to gain or lose are Bush, Kasich and Christie, who share the same essential political makeup. Each are pragmatically conservative problem-solvers running as the ‘serious’ answer to the combustible — and, they suggest, unelectable — Donald Trump.”

“Their strategies are also virtually the same: survive Iowa, which kicks off the nominating process with its Feb. 1 caucuses, then win New Hampshire eight days later — or at least run strongly enough to emerge as the alternative to Trump, Texas Sen. Ted Cruz or whoever else stamps himself the favorite of social conservatives who tend to rule the caucuses.”

What If No One Believes the Fact Checkers?

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Jack Shafer:  “It would stand to reason that the documentation of Trump’s lies… would hobble his candidacy. Yet it appears to have had little to no effect. What to conclude from this? Perhaps … Trump supporters don’t know about the fact-checker’s findings, which seems wildly unlikely given the saturation coverage his lies have enjoyed. My guess is that Trump supporters don’t believe and just don’t care what the fact checkers say.”

Top Republicans Won’t Rule Out Backing Trump

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Boston Globe: “But for all the precepts Trump has ignored during this campaign, his fellow Republicans are grappling with a traditional one: partisan loyalty. Few top Republicans — even those who denounce his comments and policies — appear ready to swear off supporting him in a general election.”

“While Trump continues to drive establishment Republicans to distraction, just a handful have declared they would not support him if he becomes the GOP nominee. Republicans may be uncomfortable or offended by Trump’s bombast, but they are clearly nervous about turning their backs on the elements of their party showing the most energy this campaign.”

Now It’s Even Easier for Candidates to Help Super PACs

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The FEC “has quietly given the green light to federal candidates who want to solicit contributions for super PACs by meeting in small groups — so small that there can be just two other people in the room,” the Washington Post reports.

“In addition, the little-noticed advisory opinion gives permission to a candidate’s campaign consultant and other aides to solicit large donations for a super PAC, as long as they make clear that they are not making the request at the direction of the candidate.”

Clinton Casts a Wide Net for Donors

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“Hillary Clinton’s presidential campaign is building the most expansive fundraising network in recent memory, taking its prospecting far beyond the usual Democratic strongholds on the East and West coasts,” The Hill reports.

“Those familiar with Clinton’s fundraising operation say she’s tapping smaller cities to avoid running dry in California and New York, which have only so many Hollywood producers and trial lawyers. One source familiar with her schedule noted that many of the places Clinton is mining for cash are in Super Tuesday states, allowing her to double up with campaign events and fundraisers.”

We’re About to Find Out If Trump Is the Real Deal

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“Donald Trump, the poll leader for the last five months in the Republican presidential race, is about to find out whether he has permanently changed the rules of politics, or if some of those old standards still linger,” the New York Times reports.

“His long-promised ‘next phase’ defined by new spending, such as a wave of television commercials, has so far failed to materialize, week after week. His advisers have not revealed the existence of any pollsters on their staff or any advertising team. He has no real research operation to examine his own vulnerabilities or those of his opponents and, based on Federal Election Commission filings, little in the way of a voter contact operation to identify and turn out his supporters.”

Politico: 13 times Trump looked finished but wasn’t

Taegan Goddard

Taegan Goddard

Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire -- which for more than two decades has been one of the nation's most influential political news sites.

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