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Blue Wave Update

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Trial Balloon · Ep. 191: Blue Wave Update

Fewer Candidates Likely to Make Next Debate

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Fox Business unveiled the criteria for its upcoming debate January 14 and the Washington Post concludes the next GOP debate stage could be much smaller.

“The top six candidates in the five most recent live-caller polls get to be in the main debate. So do the top five in the five most recent polls in Iowa and New Hampshire. Which means that as few as six candidates could participate in the main debate — and that we may not know for certain until shortly before the Jan. 11 deadline for polls to be included in the calculus.”

According to Politico calculations based on only the latest national polling available, the primetime debate stage would include Donald Trump, Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, Ben Carson, Jeb Bush and Chris Christie.

Trump Expands National Lead Over Field

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A new CNN poll finds Donald Trump with a huge lead nationally at 39%, followed by Ted Cruz at 18%, Ben Carson at 10%, Marco Rubio at 10%, Chris Christie at 5%, Rand Paul at 4% and Jeb Bush at 3%.

A new Reuters poll finds Trump ahead with 37%, followed by Carson at 11%, Cruz at 11%, Rubio at 8%, and Bush at 7%.

New Recording Suggests Martinez was Drunk

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A new recording from a police sergeant’s belt recorder suggests New Mexico Gov. Susana Martinez (R) was inebriated the night officers responded to a noise complaint at a hotel where she was hosting a holiday party, the AP reports.

“Martinez’s speech is halting and lilting as she describes the situation in an upstairs hotel room after the ballroom gala… The incident also threatens to freeze Martinez’s rising influence within her party as chair of the Republican Governors Association, a fundraising arm of the GOP.”

What Ted Cruz Says In Private

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Although Ted Cruz has publicly promised that opposition to gay marriage would be “front and center” in his 2016 campaign, Politico reports that “in December, behind closed doors at a big-dollar Manhattan fundraiser, the quickly ascending presidential candidate assured a Republican gay-rights supporter that a Cruz administration would not make fighting same-sex marriage a top priority.”

“In a recording provided to Politico, Cruz answers a flat ‘No’ when asked whether fighting gay marriage is a ‘top-three priority,’ an answer that pleased his socially moderate hosts but could surprise some of his evangelical backers.”

Which State Will Gain or Lose House Seats in 2020?

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A new U.S. Census release of state-by-state population changes sparked instant predictions about which states will gain and lose House seats after the 2020 census, the Wall Street Journal reports.

“If those trends hold up, 15 states would gain or lose districts after the 2020 census. The biggest gains would come to Texas, which is projected to clinch three more House seats, and Florida, a gainer of two seats. Arizona, North Carolina, Colorado and are all poised to grab one seat after 2020.”

“Nine states are projected to lose districts: Alabama, Illinois, Michigan, Minnesota, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island and West Virginia.”

Franklin Graham Quits the GOP

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“Prominent evangelical leader Franklin Graham has quit the Republican Party because the omnibus spending bill passed last week in Congress will continue to fund Planned Parenthood,” Politico reports.

Graham, who declared himself an independent in a Facebook post, said, “I have no hope in the Republican Party, the Democratic Party, or Tea Party to do what is best for America. Unless more godly men and women get in this process and change this wicked system, our country is in for trouble.”

Quote of the Day

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“I really deplore the tone of his campaign, the inflammatory rhetoric that he is using to divide people, and his going after groups of people with hateful, incendiary rhetoric. Nothing really surprises me anymore. I don’t know that he has any boundaries at all. His bigotry, his bluster, his bullying have become his campaign. And he has to keep sort of upping the stakes and going even further.”

— Hillary Clinton, quoted by the Des Moines Register, on Donald Trump.

Sanders Sees Victory in Iowa

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Sen. Bernie Sanders said he’s got a “very good feeling about Iowa,” the Des Moines Register reports.

Said Sanders: “Since we began this campaign we have spoken to over 31,000 people in the state of Iowa. So keep it a secret, don’t tell anybody. But I think we’re going to win here and we’re going to make history.”

Christie Slams Rubio in New Hampshire

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Gov. Chris Christie had Sen. Marco Rubio “in his sights, knocking him for missing U.S. Senate votes and lampooning him for the time he has spent, or not spent, in New Hampshire,” the New Hampshire Union Leader reports.

Said Christie: “I think that Marco Rubio, who has spent the same amount of time in New Hampshire as Jim Gilmore, should tell the people of New Hampshire that he’s really not serious about wanting to get your vote and your support.”

Does Making It Easier to Vote Actually Increase Turn Out?

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This piece is only available to Political Wire members.

Conventional wisdom suggests Democrats do better in elections when more voters turn out at the polls. This is generally why Democrats favor methods to make it easier to vote.

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Why Rubio Is Avoiding the Early States

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Bloomberg: “According to people in Rubio’s orbit, the campaign views the well-funded Cruz as its primary long-term threat and wants to halt his recent momentum. Rubio’s advisers think he has an equally good shot of winning over conservatives, given the near equal popularity the two senators enjoy among Republican voters (favorable-to-unfavorable ratings of 58-18 for Cruz; 55-18 for Rubio, according to a recent poll).”

“But less than six weeks before the first votes of the race will be cast, Rubio has a light footprint in Iowa and New Hampshire compared to some of his chief competitors in each state. Eschewing the kind of labor-intensive retail campaigning that voters in those early-voting states traditionally demand, Rubio is waging a gamble by running a more national- and media-driven campaign. He has also placed a premium on landing wealthy donors, with notable successes.”

Cruz Says He’s Locked Up Conservative Lane

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Sen. Ted Cruz predicted to the National Review that the GOP presidential race “will boil down to the familiar dynamic of an establishment favorite squaring off against a conservative challenger after they claim victories in New Hampshire and Iowa, respectively.”

Said Cruz: “I believe I will be that conservative candidate. I don’t know who the moderate candidate will be.”

“Cruz’s confidence owes to his campaign, an Obama-style grassroots-heavy operation that prioritizes direct voter contact and ground organization. So certain of his operational superiority has the senator become that he dons his strategist cap gleefully and discusses the most granular details of his polling enterprise and outreach program. Moreover, he mocks the approach taken by Rubio’s campaign, which is famously allergic to process stories and defiantly dependent on media buys… And yet Cruz clearly believes Rubio is best positioned to consolidate the other lane of the race.”

Wonk Wire: GOP wants a conservative

The Story Behind Trump’s First Campaign Book

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Dave Shiflett, the ghostwriter for Donald Trump’s first “campaign book” in 2000, The America We Deserve, writes in the Wall Street Journal “of the man who would be king.”

“Mr. Trump and I made a pretty good team. He needed words, I needed money, and together we explored what he would do if he became president. I have long considered the resulting book my first published work of fiction.”

Trump and Kelly to Face Off Again

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Fox News anchor Megyn Kelly will moderate the January 28 Republican presidential debate along with colleagues Chris Wallace and Bret Baier, The Hill reports.

“The trio will return to moderating after handling the first GOP debate of the cycle in August, after which front-runner Donald Trump feuded with Kelly and the network for months, claiming unfair treatment.”

Polls May Underestimate Trump’s Support

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A Morning Consult analysis looks at the fact that Donald Trump generally has done better in online polls than in phone surveys.

Los Angeles Times: “The firm conducted an experiment aimed at understanding why that happens and which polls are more accurate — online surveys that have tended to show Trump with support of nearly four-in-10 GOP voters or the telephone surveys that have typically shown him with the backing of one-third or fewer. Their results suggest that the higher figure probably provides the more accurate measure.”

“Some significant number of Trump supporters, especially those with college educations, are ‘less likely to say that they support him when they’re talking to a live human’ than when they are in the ‘anonymous environment’ of an online survey.”

Huntsman Ruling Out Third Party Run

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Former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman (R), who unsuccessfully sought the GOP presidential nomination in 2012, says he’s getting “a lot” of encouragement to launch another White House bid from Republicans concerned about the prospect of Donald Trump as the 2016 GOP nominee, USA Today reports.

Said Huntsman: “I always want to help my country where I can, but you don’t want to embark on a suicide mission. I’m not ready for a third-party run until we have a complete collapse of the Republican Party that I can still believe in.”

The Great GOP Revolt

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David Frum: “Something has changed in American politics since the Great Recession. The old slogans ring hollow. The insurgent candidates are less absurd, the orthodox candidates more vulnerable. The GOP donor elite planned a dynastic restoration in 2016. Instead, it triggered an internal class war.”

“The puzzle for the monied leaders of the Republican Party is: What now? And what next after that? None of the options facing the GOP elite is entirely congenial. But there appear to be four paths the elite could follow, for this campaign season and beyond. They lead the party in very different directions.”

Taegan Goddard

Taegan Goddard

Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire -- which for more than two decades has been one of the nation's most influential political news sites.

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