Looking for Early Signs of a Wave

Sean Trende: “Since the inauguration of Donald Trump, speculation has abounded as to whether his unpopularity could drag down the Republican House majority in 2018.  We’ve seen massive protests in liberal enclaves, but we haven’t had a whole lot of evidence as to whether that energy will translate to votes in red areas of the country.”

“We’ll get our first tests of this theory in a series of special elections to be held over the next few months.  These elections are being held in districts that range from light red to deeply red, so a loss here – or even a series of unusually tight races – would be consistent with the narrative that the GOP majority is in trouble.”

Charlie Cook: “The Kan­sas and Geor­gia spe­cial elec­tions, along with the Vir­gin­ia gov­ernor race, are the ca­nar­ies in the coal mine that ana­lysts will be ex­amin­ing for hints of what’s to come in the 2018 midterm elec­tions. Pres­id­en­tial elec­tion years have be­come in­creas­ingly more par­lia­ment­ary, as every 2016 Sen­ate elec­tion and 400 out of 435 House races voted the same way as the pres­id­en­tial races in those con­stitu­en­cies.”