Sean Trende: “Since the inauguration of Donald Trump, speculation has abounded as to whether his unpopularity could drag down the Republican House majority in 2018. We’ve seen massive protests in liberal enclaves, but we haven’t had a whole lot of evidence as to whether that energy will translate to votes in red areas of the country.”
“We’ll get our first tests of this theory in a series of special elections to be held over the next few months. These elections are being held in districts that range from light red to deeply red, so a loss here – or even a series of unusually tight races – would be consistent with the narrative that the GOP majority is in trouble.”
Charlie Cook: “The Kansas and Georgia special elections, along with the Virginia governor race, are the canaries in the coal mine that analysts will be examining for hints of what’s to come in the 2018 midterm elections. Presidential election years have become increasingly more parliamentary, as every 2016 Senate election and 400 out of 435 House races voted the same way as the presidential races in those constituencies.”
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