Lamb Takes the Lead In Pennsylvania’s 18th

A new Monmouth University poll in Pennsylvania’s 18th congressional district finds Conor Lamb (D) leading Rick Saccone, 51% to 45%, “if turnout yields a Democratic surge similar to voting patterns seen in other special elections over the past year.”

“Lamb also has the edge using a historical midterm lower turnout model, albeit by a much smaller 49% to 47% margin. A model with higher turnout overall, similar to a presidential electorate, gives Lamb a 51% to 44% advantage.”

“This marks a turnaround from last month’s Monmouth poll of the race, when Saccone held a small lead in all the models – 49% to 46% in the surge model, 48% to 44% in the high turnout model, and 50% to 45% in the low turnout model.”