Everybody Has a Low Floor

Nate Silver: “A recent YouGov poll, which asked Democrats to list all the candidates they were considering rather than requiring them to pick just one, also seems to suggest that Sanders has a relatively high floor of support. Among Democrats who were considering only one candidate, 28 percent were considering only Sanders, and 27 percent were considering only Biden. Everyone else was in the single digits on this question.”

“Here’s the catch, though: Only 28 percent of Democrats fell into the category of considering only one candidate. (By comparison, 67 percent are still considering multiple candidates, and 5 percent aren’t considering any current candidates.) So Sanders isn’t getting 28 percent of 100 percent — he’s getting 28 percent of 28 percent. That means just 8 percent of the overall Democratic electorate truly falls into the ‘Bernie or bust’ category.”

“So while Sanders might have a slightly higher floor than other candidates — about half of the voters who currently prefer Sanders are only considering Sanders — it’s still pretty low in the broader scheme of things. About two-thirds of Democratic voters are still up for grabs, and they’re probably going to take their time to make a decision.”