GOP Favored to Win Most Close Presidential Elections

A new University of Texas study quantifies just how often the Electoral College will produce an “inversion” — “that is, an election where one candidate wins the popular vote but the other walks away with the presidency. The numbers are simply astonishing,” Vox reports.

“In modern elections where one party prevails by just 2 points in the two-party popular vote, ‘inversions are expected in more than 30% of elections.’ That number rises to 40 percent in elections with a 1 percentage-point margin.”

“Republicans, moreover, are far more likely to benefit from an inversion than Democrats.” From the study: “In the modern period, Republicans should be expected to win 65% of Presidential contests in which they narrowly lose the popular vote.”