Behind Tom Steyer’s Polling Surge

Nate Cohn: “The explanation for Mr. Steyer’s surge is straightforward: uncontested dominance of the airwaves. According to FiveThirtyEight’s ad spending tracker, he has spent more on television advertisements than all other candidates combined — not counting the other billionaire in the race, Michael Bloomberg.”

“In contrast with Mr. Bloomberg, Mr. Steyer’s advertisements are concentrated in the four early states, though his spending in Iowa and New Hampshire has not yielded a similar breakthrough. That’s probably because other candidates are spending there. There may be another reason: Perhaps there’s more to the claim than many assume that Iowa and New Hampshire take their responsibilities at the top of the calendar more seriously than other states.”

“The Fox polls suggest that Mr. Steyer has made broad gains among Democratic voters, spanning most age, educational, racial and ideological groups. The breadth of his support is fairly impressive, given that the Democratic electorate has often split along factional lines so far this cycle. The depth of his support is untested, though.”