Trump’s Attack Ads Won’t Amount to Much

Jonathan Bernstein: “The truth is that no November campaign was ever won by advertising in May. Political scientist John Sides put it this way: ‘For journalists writing about the new Trump `Death Star’ ad blitz, it’s imperative to discuss the research showing how quickly the effects of presidential general election advertising wear off. The impact of advertising in May on what happens in November is likely zero.'”

“So why do it? Mostly because they can. Presidential campaigns these days raise far more money than they can spend effectively. Even if the chances of influencing the outcome are only ‘likely’ zero, it may still be rational to spend the money, because in a very close race any little bit is helpful. (Of course, this election may not turn out to be close, but no one can say at this point.)”

“That’s not all. Both bureaucratic momentum and, in some cases, profit motives can lead to more advertising.”