Political Wire

  • Front Page
  • Trending
  • Reader Wire
  • Members
    • Subscribe
    • Sign In
  • Contact Us
You are here: Home / 2020 Campaign / Forecast Model Predicts Trump Will Lose In a Landslide

Forecast Model Predicts Trump Will Lose In a Landslide

May 21, 2020 at 10:22 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A new Oxford Economics model predicts the coronavirus pandemic will cause President Trump to suffer a “historic defeat” in November, CNN reports.

“The model, which uses unemployment, disposable income and inflation to forecast election results, predicts that Trump will lose in a landslide, capturing just 35% of the popular vote. That’s a sharp reversal from the model’s pre-crisis prediction that Trump would win about 55% of the vote. And it would be the worst performance for an incumbent in a century.”

Said the report: “It would take nothing short of an economic miracle for pocketbooks to favor Trump, adding that the economy will be a “nearly insurmountable obstacle for Trump come November.”

FavoriteLoadingSave to Favorites
  • Bluesky
  • X
  • Threads
  • Facebook
  • Email

Filed Under: 2020 Campaign

« Pandemic Keeps Campaign Spending Low
Biden Leads In Michigan »

Your Account

Sign in

Members Only

  • Weekly News Quiz
  • A Perfect Reflection of Trump’s Washington
  • Don’t Give ‘Em a Hose
  • Trump’s Iran Deal Is the Opposite of Obama’s
  • Divided Field Gives Republicans Lifeline in Montana

Trial Balloon

Add Trial Balloon to your podcast player to get new episodes each week.


About Political Wire

goddard-bw-snapshotTaegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.

Praise for Political Wire

“There are a lot of blogs and news sites claiming to understand politics, but only a few actually do. Political Wire is one of them.”

— Chuck Todd, host of “Meet the Press”

“Concise. Relevant. To the point. Political Wire is the first site I check when I’m looking for the latest political nugget. That pretty much says it all.”

— Stuart Rothenberg, editor of the Rothenberg Political Report

“Political Wire is one of only four or five sites that I check every day and sometimes several times a day, for the latest political news and developments.”

— Charlie Cook, editor of the Cook Political Report

“The big news, delicious tidbits, pearls of wisdom — nicely packaged, constantly updated… What political junkie could ask for more?”

— Larry Sabato, Center for Politics, University of Virginia

“Political Wire is a great, great site.”

— Joe Scarborough, host of MSNBC’s “Morning Joe”

“Taegan Goddard has a knack for digging out political gems that too often get passed over by the mainstream press, and for delivering the latest electoral developments in a sharp, no frills style that makes his Political Wire an addictive blog habit you don’t want to kick.”

— Arianna Huffington, founder of The Huffington Post

“Political Wire is one of the absolute must-read sites in the blogosphere.”

— Glenn Reynolds, founder of Instapundit

“I rely on Taegan Goddard’s Political Wire for straight, fair political news, he gets right to the point. It’s an eagerly anticipated part of my news reading.”

— Craig Newmark, founder of Craigslist.

Copyright © 2026 · Goddard Media LLC | Privacy Policy | Corrections Policy

Political Wire ® is a registered trademark of Goddard Media LLC