Should Democrats Worry About Absentee Ballots?

Michael McDonald has been running evaluations of the early vote so far and he has a prediction: “I predict in the coming weeks the Democratic narrative will change from euphoria over the apparent large leads in early voting to concern that a disproportionately large number of younger voters have yet to return their mail ballots.”

Jonathan Bernstein: “Safe bet — at least, it’s a safe be that Democrats will be panicking about something. If it’s not the lower ballot-return rate from younger voters, it will be that more mail-in than in-person ballots wind up disqualified, or perhaps just that Joe Biden’s current very large lead over President Trump will slide back to being just a large lead. Democrats always are on the verge of panic, and after Trump won in 2016 despite being behind in the polls (but nowhere near as far behind as he is now) that’s only going to make them more insecure.”

“To be sure: Trump certainly could win — some events we can’t predict could still, even now, change things. But as for these particular worries (or, perhaps, hopes from the Republican side): There’s not much here.”