Santos’s Reckoning Likely to Be Delayed Until 2024

Cook Political Report: “The political incentives at play here are pretty clear: not only did McCarthy desperately need Santos’s vote for speaker; he can’t afford to cut the GOP’s lease on the seat short. A Santos resignation or expulsion would set up a special election in a Long Island district that would have voted for President Biden 53%-45% in 2020 — giving Democrats a phenomenal opportunity to narrow Republicans’ already-tenuous 222-213 majority.”

“At the same time, it’s great politics for other New York GOP freshmen, including Reps. Nick LaLota (NY-01), Anthony D’Esposito (NY-04), Mike Lawler (NY-17), Marc Molinaro (NY-19) and Brandon Williams (NY-22) to demand Santos’s resignation. All five are up for reelection in Biden-won seats in 2024 and would vote to declare the radioactive Santos a federal Superfund site if it bolstered their standing with independent voters…”

“If Santos were to somehow make it to the November 2024 ballot, the seat would be a slam dunk for Democrats. The far more likely scenario is that he’s demolished in a primary if he runs at all, making the fall race a Toss Up. We don’t feel that Santos belongs in the same category as other vulnerable Republicans, so New York’s 3rd CD will start in the Lean Democrat column in our initial ratings.”