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Who’s Actually Going to Vote?

September 23, 2024 · 7:41 am ET · Leave a Comment

“In the flood of election polls you’ll see over the next few weeks, most polling groups will include responses from ‘likely voters.’ And often from nobody else,” the New York Times reports.

“In theory, these poll numbers should yield more accurate results, since the people who actually vote are the ones who dictate the outcome on Election Day. But creating a precise picture of who will vote in November is a complicated endeavor.”

“After all, how exactly can a pollster know who is ‘likely’ to vote, and who therefore will be the focus of their results? There’s no one right answer, and every polling firm has its own strategy.”

The Hill: Democrats fear pollsters are undercounting Trump.

2024 Campaign, Polling

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Taegan Goddard

Taegan Goddard

Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire -- which for more than two decades has been one of the nation's most influential political news sites.

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Electoral Map Electoral Vote Map

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The starting map is built from how each state has voted compared with the country as a whole, not from how a state voted on its own. The last two presidential elections, with 2024 counting more than 2020. Then we…

Updated Nov. 4, 2026

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