Will the Polls Be Wrong Again?

Wall Street Journal: “Pollsters have spent the years since 2020 experimenting with ways to induce hard-to-reach voters to participate in surveys and testing statistical techniques intended to improve accuracy. But expert opinion is mixed on whether polling is in for a repeat of 2020, which the professional association of pollsters called the most inaccurate performance in 40 years.”

“New developments, such as the shift of Black and Latino voters toward Trump and the proliferation of online surveys, are creating potential sources of additional error.”

Nate Cohn: Two theories for why the polls failed in 2020, and what it means for 2024.