Democrats Join 2024’s Graveyard of Incumbents

John Burn-Murdoch: “Such a crushing defeat in this week’s US election is bound to elicit months if not years of soul-searching from Democrats. Did Biden hold on for too long? Should party officials have opted for a contested convention instead of parachuting Harris into the race? Has the party’s socially progressive turn alienated some Hispanic and Black men?”

“The problem is, it’s entirely possible both that the answer to all three of those questions is ‘yes’, and that taking action to address them would not have produced a fundamentally different outcome. Just as the answer to ‘would Britain’s Conservatives have fared better in an autumn election in a lower inflation environment?’ is ‘maybe’, but the response to ‘would it have resulted in a materially different outcome?’ is ‘no’.

“The reason I make these assertions is that the economic and geopolitical conditions of the past year or two have created arguably the most hostile environment in history for incumbent parties and politicians across the developed world.”