Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball: “As redistricting for 2026 is likely coming to a close, 10 states drew new maps for 2026. Those states hold about 40% of all the nation’s House seats.”
“Redistricting did make the overall House map more favorable to Republicans. The median district by presidential performance is now VA-1, held by Rep. Rob Wittman (R). It is about 2 points to the right of the old median district, and it voted about 3.5 points to the right of the nation in the 2024 presidential election.”
“The number of the most competitive districts on paper declined from 85 to 70, although in 2026, Democrats may be able to win some districts that voted for Donald Trump by double digits in 2024—districts that in other years might not be winnable for them.”
